Denver covers tonight - here's why (long) ----->

greatdivide · #1 11-09-2009, 03:59 PM

Several factors playing in to Denver covering the number tonight:

-Pitt is 0-3 ATS this year in road games
-Pitt is 0-2 straight up this year as a favorite of 3 points or less
-Pitt is 1-3 ATS against conference opponents

-Denver is 2-0 ATS as a home dog
-Denver is 4-1 ATS as an underdog
-Denver is 4-1 SU as an underdog
-Denver is 5-1 ATS against conference opponents

Now for the write up:

There is nothing like a loss to make a team re-focus. Denver getting the proverbial bitch slap from Baltimore last week was certainly a reality check. If anyone should be able to get his team ready to play after a game like that, it is Josh McDaniels. I would not have said that at the beginning of the season, as many of Bill's disciples have not inherited his cool headed demeanor, but McDaniels has done that and put a little twist on it. If the Broncos go on a deep playoff run, the fist pump after the Patriots game will be a defining moment of the 2009 season, if not, it will still be something players can look at in preparation for next year and know that their coach wants to win. McDaniels has the team on the same page (even B. Marshall) and has a clear cut game plan going in to every game. Nolan has the defense ranked near the top in every defensive category, and they are #1 overall.

Speaking of defense, Pittsburgh is no slouch. However, they will be playing without 3 starters (Clark, Timmons and Kirschke, per ESPN). Losing a DE, a LB, and a safety means that there will be fresh blood to pick on in every level of the defense. Will Troy P. be able to cover his half of the field or will he cheat to one side to help Clark's replacement?

Big Ben will have to shoulder a lot of the load tonight, which I'm sure he won't mind. But you can only throw into a secondary that includes Dawkins and Bailey for so long before it gets you in trouble. Roethlisberger will have to take the underneath stuff for most of the game - we'll see if he can stay patient. He has thrown 6 INT's this year to go along with his 4 fumbles. That is a recipe for disaster against a Denver defense with 12 takeaways this year.

Pittsburgh coming off a bye is usually dangerous, but what about next week when they play Cincy? I think the Bengals will be on their minds tonight knowing that they have a short week to prepare. This is the definition of a look ahead. Favored on the road against a team the public has never really believed in and playing your division leader next week. Denver, on the other hand, plays the Skins next week - uh... no look ahead here.

Most important stat of the game: Turnovers. Denver +6 Pitt -3

Sharp observation: 78% of the public on Pitt and the line hasn't moved! The public won big last weekend and gave it all back yesterday!

I'm playing: Denver +3 3*

Mancini334 · #2 11-09-2009, 04:18 PM

I was pretty unsure about this game, but hearing almost 80% of the bets are going to Pitt I think I will just put my brain away and just simply fade the public. I think I am going to take the under as well, hope you have a good night GD.

greatdivide · #3 11-09-2009, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mancini334

I was pretty unsure about this game, but hearing almost 80% of the bets are going to Pitt I think I will just put my brain away and just simply fade the public. I think I am going to take the under as well, hope you have a good night GD.

under definitely favors denver.

thanks, mancini

Sweetleaf22 · #4 11-09-2009, 04:26 PM

put my brain away and just simply fade the public.

rda21 · #5 11-09-2009, 04:34 PM

Good Luck greatdivide. With ya on Denver. Lets

it up tonight.

greatdivide · #6 11-09-2009, 05:52 PM

Thanks everyone! Let's cash this one!

greatdivide · #7 11-09-2009, 07:31 PM

Something to note - my local had the game at +3 so I bought half a point.

Also, dammit ESPN. 5 of 8 of you pick Denver. Wtf...

junkiee24 · #8 11-09-2009, 07:48 PM

i am on Pitts to win this in a blow out..
got 10K on this game.. good luck to you but i disagree!

greatdivide · #9 11-09-2009, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by junkiee24

i am on Pitts to win this in a blow out..
got 10K on this game.. good luck to you but i disagree!

Sorry to hear about your 10k loss... (This is where I would usually put a wink, but I am on my blackberry)

greatdivide · #10 11-10-2009, 08:03 AM

Note to self: Denver gets man handled against bigger, more physical teams.

bchi99 · #11 11-10-2009, 10:54 AM

saw this one coming..i'm sorry but Kyle Orton is not the best QB, yea he can throw those quick slants however he really doesn't throw a good long ball

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