The Denver "Tebos" -3.5. What am I missing?

[Bizluvs2win]

An early peek at the lines for Week #14 and I see the "Tebows" are only -3.5 at home vs Da Bears who are struggling woefully with Hannie and now I think Forte might be out?

In any case, if you watched the Bears last two weeks, even with the almost come from behind victory at Oakland, you'd know what I am saying when this is the worst they have been since the end of the Grossman era. And with Denver surging I don't get this spread. What am I missing here or should I pound this before it goes up?

I usually just stick with my own system plays but sometimes, I see something like this and just wonder. Any feedback would be appreciated and hope you had a good week 13.

[Earl]

The Line is about right.

[Chris46139]

Not sure how Denver scores in that game

[Thunder]

I wasn't sure how the Chiefs would score yesterday but Chris Conte decides to swat a hail mary out of Urlacher's hands just before half to give them a TD.....Things happen.

[aztriman]

The other question is, "How will Chicago score without Forte?" Taking the under.

[resteasy]

Now Tebow knows how to beat chicago... Hail Marys
That's right up his ally

[LadyDawn]

who knows denver has now covered 5 in a row and i think was always dogged

each cover they are sliding lower and lower ok the past 6 games went like this the amazing emotional win at miami +2 points ATS then the emotional crash happened at home vs lions wam - 32 points ATS then the Tebow bounced right back shooting up to +22 points ats which after a huge swing like that - 32 points to + 22 which = a 54 point move going from negative to postive most teams will bounce negative again

but Denver didnt they dropped to+ 13 then + 10 then +9 and after yesterday closing line Broncos - 1 1/2 Squeaked to + 1 1/2 points ats if you draw a line acroos the page

in middle you and make a graph from each ATS the result will see what i mean !

Bears after 5 str8 covers hit double negatives + 3 at raiders lost by 5 so thats - 2 pts ATS then the outright loss at home to KC - 8 points are negative 15 pts ATS so YOU have one team already in the basement the other is headed there and now are favored opening line for 1st time when actually they were a dog opening at Minny and the Broncos history after a str8 up DOG win then being favored in next game are bad bets no matter who or where they play !

here it is past 11 seasons they are 4 - 9 ats and 5 times they lost the game s/u when favored when playing a NON div foe they are 3 and 3 ats and twice lost the game s/u

i wouldnt touch this game at all very few teams can win or cover 6 str8 times but the way the bears wheels have fallen off right now who knows how they are going to respond !

[pwherr]

Originally Posted by LadyDawn

who knows denver has now covered 5 in a row and i think was always dogged

each cover they are sliding lower and lower ok the past 6 games went like this the amazing emotional win at miami +2 points ATS then the emotional crash happened at home vs lions wam - 32 points ATS then the Tebow bounced right back shooting up to +22 points ats which after a huge swing like that - 32 points to + 22 which = a 54 point move going from negative to postive most teams will bounce negative again

but Denver didnt they dropped to+ 13 then + 10 then +9 and after yesterday closing line Broncos - 1 1/2 Squeaked to + 1 1/2 points ats if you draw a line acroos the page

in middle you and make a graph from each ATS the result will see what i mean !

Bears after 5 str8 covers hit double negatives + 3 at raiders lost by 5 so thats - 2 pts ATS then the outright loss at home to KC - 8 points are negative 15 pts ATS so YOU have one team already in the basement the other is headed there and now are favored opening line for 1st time when actually they were a dog opening at Minny and the Broncos history after a str8 up DOG win then being favored in next game are bad bets no matter who or where they play !

here it is past 11 seasons they are 4 - 9 ats and 5 times they lost the game s/u when favored when playing a NON div foe they are 3 and 3 ats and twice lost the game s/u

i wouldnt touch this game at all very few teams can win or cover 6 str8 times but the way the bears wheels have fallen off right now who knows how they are going to respond !

So all of that for who knows?

[upinya83]

tebow is my hero

[LadyDawn]

lol i know pwherr it's confusing the way i wastaught to handicap NFL games !

using 4 things how many points they have scored vs how many points they allow

the charts each week ATS results the schedule for games when a team is trapped

then THE one thing no odds maker can handicap the emotinal psycholgical factor of the game !

when you get that part right throw all the stats and point spreads OUT the window the team YOU are betting on will win the game s/u !

games when teams came off of huge emotional wins and went kaboom as a favorite next week !

Ravens whipped BIG Ben week 1 next week on the Road at titans a a fovorite of 6 points

CRASHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH 26- 13

then again the classic Trap game after a s/u dog win at steelers the 1st time ever vs BIG in Pitts win go on the road to sehawks as a 7 pt road chalk

KRASHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHhh 22- 17

Tim tebow after that HUGE Emotional come back win in 4th qtr at Dolhphins down 15 -0

came home To lions KRASHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

and we all thought it going to a short ride for Tebow after that game !

another huge Emotional crash for bills after betting Patriots for 1st time in 16 matchups on the road at Cincy - 3 points KRASHHHHHHHHH 23 - 20 loss games wasnt that close as final result would have you belive !

get the picture ? NO of course not YOU need a keen eye and ear for this to spot it put yourself in teams mind in the room !

[Bizluvs2win]

Thanks guys. I will probably lay off of it but I was also chomping at the bit to go against the Bears the second they announced Cutler would be out and did not because everyone I talked to kept insisting they could still beat mediocre teams like Oakland and bad teams like K.C even with a rookie QB who has very little experience and that is now two wins I did not take advantage of.

I am the only person I know here in Chicago who did not think for a half second that Hannie had a hope and only now after two dismal losses are people coming around to my line of thinking. Up until yesterday people were insisting he could go 3-3 the rest of the way and make the playoffs. Now they realize that even one win could be difficult unless the defense and Hester score all the points.

I just see this as two teams going in totally opposite directions and only laying 3.5 seems generous given that the Bears offense will be lucky to put up 10 points and will likely give up at least 10 due to turnovers.

[TimTebow]

Take the Bears ML.

[mrwho]

aint no girls dissecting a game like that....damn

[Mendoza Line]

I already played Denver next week.

Denver and Over. Should be some pretty short fields in that game.

Going to be 38 degrees and pretty clear that day. Weather not an issue.

[resteasy]

over really?
figured denver and under would be the play.
don't believe in the bears without both cutler and forte.