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#1
07-14-2008, 07:18 PM
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A "Different" Handicapping tool ...
BY DOUG UPSTONE
Betting on the NFL can be one of the most rewarding or frustrating habits one can encounter for the entire year. Though bountiful opportunity exists, with a few Thursday, Saturday and weekly Monday night games, the bulk of the action is still on Sunday, compacting opportunity into a very narrow window. When a bettor is winning, next week can’t come soon enough. Of course, in a parallel universe, the same is also true when wins are hard to come by. As a professional football bettor, what can you do to enhance your chances of winning and keep the money coming into the inbox as opposed to sending hard-earned cash outward? What you are about to read will create an opportunity to change losing into winning and winning into more cash than you are accustomed to handling. It’s not magic, there is no secret formula and most importantly, it won’t cost you a dime, just the time necessary for a little research. First, some background about this simple, yet profitable information that can improve winning percentage dramatically. Sitting on the offensive stats page, way to the right is one labeled YPPT, the acronym for Yards Per Point. I remembered hearing about this stat on a Monday night football game too many years ago to remember. It never really caught on in the lexicon of the general public and in discussions in wagering circles. After always doing fairly well in the NFL, in 2004, YPPT had a season that was below personal expectations. This was coming off a year which a profit was squeaked out thanks to the playoffs. I was just about ready to give up on it. As any sage sports bettor understands, the rules of engagement change often. What worked yesterday doesn’t always apply to today and might not tomorrow either. In order to win, fresh information that can be dissected for tangible results enhances performance of the bottom line. Before the 2005 season, I went thru all the old methods, systems and information that was 50-50 at best and stayed with tried and true performance based products. Yards per point is a direct correlation to the number of yards gained from the line of scrimmage compared to the number of points scored. For example, if a team racks up 400 yards of offense and scores 28 points, this would have a numerical value of 14.2 YPPT. If another team had 300 yards total offense and tallied 17 points, they would a have less productive figure of 17.6. Like in golf, the lower the number the better. What is intriguing about this stat is what elements are included, the quiet aspects of professional football if you will. If a team has a very good defense, they will have improved field position for offensive teammates, meaning fewer yards would have to be gained to score points. Special teams come into play, since either advancing the pigskin beyond normal parameters elevates scoring potential or reduces chances to put points on the board because of having to navigate more real estate. Though not deliberately stated, turnovers are also part of the makeup of this statistic. A question a person might have, why is YPPT such an important stat, when NFL.com doesn’t show it on their website? This is a valid question, with a simple answer. The NFL continually shows its disdain for betting on its games, while fully understanding the popularity of the game reaching unprecedented heights is due in part to all sorts of wagering, whether it is office pools, fantasy football or our preferred methods, betting on pointspreads. As you’ll see, YPPT is in fact, a great betting stat which needs to become part of your arsenal. Let’s dig into the numbers concerning Yards Per Point. In 2007 these were the top five performing teams in this very specific category. NFL Top 5 YPPT Teams in ‘07 1) New England (11.6): 16-0 SU, 10-6 ATS 2) San Diego (13.0): 11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS 3) Indianapolis (13.1): 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS 4) Dallas (13.1): 13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS 5) Pittsburgh (13.2): 10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS The top four teams on this list were among the best in football all season and Green Bay actually showed up sixth in these numbers. Analyzing the spread records of these teams, for the season they were an outstanding 47-33 ATS, 58.7 percent, certainly a record any individual bettor would be proud of. It comes as no surprise; these teams were among the top nine in scoring in the NFL. Next, are the teams with the highest YPPT, otherwise known as the five worst teams from 2007 campaign. NFL Bottom 5 YPPT Teams in ‘07 28) Buffalo (17.6): 8-8 SU, 10-6 ATS 29) N.Y. Jets (17.6): 4-12 SU, 6-9-1 ATS 30) St. Louis (18.1): 3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS 31) Atlanta (18.6): 4-12 SU, 7-8-1 ATS 32) Kansas City (19.6): 4-12 SU, 7-8-1 ATS A quick perusal shows these five bottom feeders were 35-42-3 against the spread for 45.4 winning percentage. Not collectively among the worst spread teams, but well below the 52.6 break-even point when you add the pointspread into the equation. The numbers look solid for the bettor or handicapper looking to make a quality profit. These types of angles are for real pros, who understand the swings in sports wagering, not chasing handicappers through forums, hoping to ride an 80 percent wave from the flavor of the week club. Like anything worth pursuing, money would rank high on anyone’s list, it takes work and dedication. These follow the principles of long term investing. Here is a look at the figures from 2006. NFL Top 5 YPPT Teams in ‘06 1) San Diego (12.1): 14-2 SU, 9-7 ATS 2) Chicago (12.1): 13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS 3) New England (13.3): 12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS 4) Dallas (13.6): 9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS 5) Buffalo (14.2): 7-9 SU, 10-6 ATS The Chicago Bears went to the Super Bowl that season and either New England or San Diego could have gone, except one knocking off the other and the Patriots being overtaken by Indianapolis rally on its home turf. In Bill Parcells’ final season, Dallas underachieved, yet was potent offensively, scoring 26.6 points per game, fourth best in the league. Some may wonder how Buffalo could have been in the top five in 2006. Quarterback JP Losman found a groove and got hot and Willis McGahee had running lanes to pile up big gains. The spread record was 46-33-1, 58.2 percent. Those that struggled offensively had a much tougher time in 2006, making them excellent Play Against squads. NFL Bottom 5 YPPT Teams in ‘06 28) Atlanta (18.2): 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS 29) Carolina (18.2): 8-8 SU, 6-9-1 ATS 30) Miami (19.1): 6-10 SU, 6-10 ATS 31) Tampa Bay (20.5): 4-12 SU, 6-9-1 ATS 32) Oakland (23.4): 4-12 SU, 5-10-1 ATS Playing against these paupers was tremendous, providing a 46-31-3 spread record for 59.8 percent. “Dollar” ($100) players would show a $1,190 profit, playing against bad teams. Other notable elements contained in this angle are big plays and execution. How often have you seen marvelous offensive teams hit the 50-60 yard pass for a touchdown right after a turnover by the opposition? They gobble up the yards and score touchdowns, not field goals. Another aspect included, is execution. Top shelf teams are precise; they effortlessly move the ball down the field to score points, breaking the will of the opposition. The teams at the bottom of the list suffers too many three and outs or worse, tantalize backers moving the ball between the 30-yard lines, but seldom changing the score on the board. Many a gambler won’t be satisfied with making a consistent profit, they want to “cash in” and hit the big figures. This very angle has done that in the past as well. In 2004, all the stars aligned and for the upper crust teams, the money was flowing in as seen in the chart below. NFL Top 5 YPPT Teams in ‘04 1) Buffalo (11.9): 9-7 11-5 ATS 2) Indianapolis (12.7): 12-4 9-6-1 ATS 3) New England (12.8): 14-2 11-3-2 ATS 4) San Diego (12.9): 12-4 13-1-2 ATS 5) Cincinnati (13.7): 8-8 7-8-1 ATS Even with the Bengals lousy spread record, this was a winning percentage of 68.9 for these five teams! Anyone on these teams at a $100 a pop, made a cool $2,570 profit. What can make betting on the NFL a joy is winning consistently. Not a little up one year, down hard the next, followed by a third season that has you about even, like most mutual funds in today’s marketplace. The key is steadywinning, reaping the benefits in great years like 2004 and being in the black the rest of the time like most other years. Here are the two charts showing the results of Play On or Play Against teams by season. Top Five Play On YPPT teams ATS Record (all pushes are discounted) 2003: 45-31 SU, 59.2 percent 2004: 51-23 SU, 68.9 percent 2005: 45-32 SU, 58.4 percent 2006: 46-33 SU, 58.2 percent 2007: 47-33 SU, 58.7 percent Total: 234-152 SU, 60.6 percent Over a five-year period, that is +66.8 units of profit based on whatever a bettor considers a single unit. Keep in mind; this is following just one simple method of wagering. Bottom Five Play Against YPPT teams ATS Record (all pushes are discounted) 2003 : 45-31 SU, 59.2 percent 2004 : 43-36 SU, 55.8 percent 2005 : 45-31 SU, 59.2 percent 2006 : 46-31 SU, 59.7 percent 2007 : 42-35 SU, 54.5 percent Total: 221-164 SU, 57.4 percent If only your stocks had such a continual return! When people read information like this, skeptics are sure to abound, with legitimate concerns, this is healthy. One question that has to come up is how do I know which teams to bet on before the season starts? The fact is you don’t, but if you wanted to play from week one, starting with the perceived power teams over the last couple of seasons, would make sense. Starting the season, New England, Dallas, San Diego and Indianapolis do not appear any weaker. Atlanta, St. Louis and Kansas City, helped themselves in the draft, but will this translate into immediate success? That is unlikely. If you like the idea of winning with the aforementioned figures, there are ways to improve your winning percentage, thus your bottom line. Show a little patience and let each team play three games. Now you’ll have a better feel at what level every team is at and is the method I will use. Since following this angle with diligence the last two seasons, look what improvement can be realized by taking your time. Play On Teams 2006: 37-21, 63.7 percent 2007: 34-23, 59.6 percent Play Against Teams 2006: 34-25, 59.3 percent 2007: 33-24, 57.8 percent In each instance these numbers were higher than the outstanding five-year average, giving the tenacious player better odds of succeeding. You may have noticed the numbers of games is actually lower than just taking out three games. This would be correct and another added benefit. In all the numbers listed with the various teams and years, some of these teams had to play head-to-head, giving a winner and loser on each side, which ultimately drags down record of the trend. When two teams in the same category, it’s just a no play. No fuss, no muss, wipe your hands clean and move on. A highly profitable situation does arise when you have when one of the top five teams meets one of the bottom five teams. When this occurs, backing the better team has led to several easy and comfortable victories the last couple of seasons with 11-4 record, a 73.3 winning percentage. When I’ve discussed this idea with other people, they’ve offered they can’t afford to play potentially 10 NFL games a week. This is a question each person has to answer them selves. With matchups within the group and bye weeks, the volume of games is seldom at 10 and it would not be prudent to play that many games with any kind of method, with a max of 16 encounters over a week of action. Remember, this is designed to be part of the puzzle each bettor creates in choosing games, not necessarily the puzzle. I recently met with a group of 22 bettors in all walks of life, all with various wagering habits. I broached this topic with them and a few were vociferous in arguing this can not possibly work, because it is essentially backing favorites in the NFL. A lively discussion ensued and this was my basic answer. Finding the right underdog adds value, as it gives the sports bettor another way to win without winning the game. Over the years the straight up winner of any game is going to cover the spread 75-80 percent of the time. If any individual has a method, thought, or idea about being on the RIGHT side of a contest, does it really matter if it is a favorite or underdog? Many handicappers will play underdogs 70 percent of the time and go on incessantly about their wisdom. Most handicappers understand they have to find underdogs that win, to have a reason for people to pay them money. Any person off the street will back the home team of their choice and blindly play them as favorites. My point is this, have the right information, make a winning selection and put ego aside, does it really matter what side it comes from? This has not been mentioned to let you absorb what has been shown to you, yet is IMPERATIVE TO SUCCESS. After week three, check EVERY single week to know what NFL teams are in the Top and Bottom Five. NEVER assume it is the same from week to week. The higher winning percentages of the last two years are based on having the right teams week to week. A couple of other ways I noticed last season will improve increase the amount of money you can take in. In the last three weeks of the season, carefully understand the relative positions of the top and bottom teams in YPPT category. Indianapolis is notorious for resting players, if they have wrapped up division, as will other teams. It might be wise to pass on these games. The same can be said for the lower echelon teams, if they have thrown in the towel and are looking at a different quarterback or coaching change seems immanent. Take a close look at yards per point and maybe you can be like an oil sheik and have more money than you would know what to do with.
__________________
You Can't Win , If You're Afraid To lose don't take life too serious. None of us gets out alive .. GIDDY UP 
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#2
07-14-2008, 10:50 PM
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Kramer so what is it going to cost me to have you post this plays all season ? Good stuff !!!!
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#3
07-15-2008, 02:20 AM
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1 Huge upside down Heineken a day
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#4
09-08-2008, 02:00 PM
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I am gonna test this out this year.
Last edited by Patriots Game; 09-08-2008 at 02:02 PM.
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#5
09-08-2008, 02:39 PM
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Good information and I thank you for posting it.
I do have a problem with the article however. The article is cherry picking the stats after the fact...but they are not applicable that way in real life. For instance...after week 1 the top and bottom 5 teams with this stat will not be the same as the end of years top and bottom...but the article is using the end of year record....as if it would have helped in the early weeks of the season. I really doubt you can wager with this stat until week 4 at the earliest...but your actual results will not be the same as the end of year results for the reasons I gave. But its still a good tool. 
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#6
09-08-2008, 05:15 PM
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Quote:
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#7
09-11-2008, 12:23 PM
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Code:
Team YPPT Rank NY Giants 9.369 1 Buffalo 9.941 2 Chicago 11.000 3 Arizona 12.391 4 Denver 13.384 5 NY Jets 13.422 6 Atlanta 13.941 7 Detroit 13.978 8 New Orleans 14.352 9 Carolina 14.923 10 Cincinnati 15.400 11 New England 15.567 12 San Diego 16.577 13 Houston 17.368 14 Dallas 17.393 15 Tampa Bay 17.600 16 Tennessee 18.176 17 Miami 18.445 18 San Francisco 18.852 19 Pittsburgh 19.380 20 Green Bay 19.592 21 Philadelphia 19.615 22 Jacksonville 19.652 23 Cleveland 20.500 24 Kansas City 20.974 25 Baltimore 21.059 26 Minnesota 21.337 27 Oakland 22.439 28 Indianapolis 26.962 29 Seattle 28.632 30 Washington 29.857 31 St. Louis 55.333 32 Last edited by Patriots Game; 09-11-2008 at 12:27 PM.
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#8
09-11-2008, 12:25 PM
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..
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#9
09-11-2008, 12:48 PM
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Sorry Folks, this is the correct version of Week 1 YPPT.
Code:
Team YPPT Rank Pittsburgh 8.026 1 Buffalo 9.941 2 Denver 10.756 3 Chicago 11.000 4 Arizona 12.391 5 San Diego 13.167 6 Green Bay 13.208 7 Philadelphia 13.737 8 Houston 13.765 9 Atlanta 13.941 10 NY Jets 14.650 11 Detroit 14.667 12 Carolina 14.923 13 Cincinnati 15.400 14 Dallas 17.393 15 Tampa Bay 17.600 16 Tennessee 18.176 17 New Orleans 18.250 18 Minnesota 18.684 19 Jacksonville 18.900 20 Miami 19.786 21 New England 19.882 22 Cleveland 20.500 23 Baltimore 21.059 24 NY Giants 22.125 25 San Francisco 22.385 26 Indianapolis 22.538 27 Oakland 22.643 28 Seattle 25.200 29 Kansas City 28.400 30 Washington 29.857 31 St. Louis 55.333 32
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#10
09-11-2008, 01:01 PM
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Will you be able to post these stats throughout the year or need a hand?
__________________
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#11
09-11-2008, 01:06 PM
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Quote:
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#12
09-17-2008, 10:07 AM
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After week 2
Sorry for posting this late. I actually found a site that already has this calculated. I have formated it from best to worst. Note that BAL and HOU didn't play this week.
Code:
Team YPPT Rank GREEN BAY 10.6 1 BUFFALO 11.5 2 PHILADELPHIA 11.5 2 DENVER 11.6 4 PITTSBURGH 12.2 5 CHICAGO 12.5 6 SAN DIEGO 12.5 6 DALLAS 12.6 8 CAROLINA 13.1 9 ARIZONA 13.5 10 DETROIT 13.5 10 HOUSTON 13.8 12 NY GIANTS 13.9 13 NEW ORLEANS 14.3 14 SAN FRANCISCO 14.3 14 TENNESSEE 14.7 16 SEATTLE 15.1 17 TAMPA BAY 15.1 17 ATLANTA 16.5 19 JACKSONVILLE 16.6 20 NEW ENGLAND 16.6 20 OAKLAND 18.2 22 NY JETS 18.3 23 WASHINGTON 18.4 24 MINNESOTA 19.2 25 INDIANAPOLIS 19.6 26 BALTIMORE 21.1 27 MIAMI 21.4 28 CINCINNATI 21.7 29 ST LOUIS 22.9 30 CLEVELAND 25.8 31 KANSAS CITY 26.3 32
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#13
09-17-2008, 12:47 PM
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I don't get it. I know the lower the number the better. For example GB vs Dal this week, gb is 2 points lower. Does it mean gb will win by 2?
Or SD vs NYJ , sd is about 6 points lower than NYJ, does it mean they will win su but not cover?
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#14
09-17-2008, 01:21 PM
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Quote:
It shows Yards per point....or the efficiency of each team.
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#15
09-17-2008, 01:38 PM
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thanks mj
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