Direct From Vegas With Nick Bogdanovich

[The Loner]

WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THE NFL PLAYOFF GAMES (and bowls!)

It's been a very interesting week in Las Vegas regarding how people are betting on the NFL Wildcard games. I've been hearing some very interesting debates. Passions are particularly high in the Jacksonville/Pittsburgh game.

Each week at this time, I've outlined what Las Vegas sharps (professional wagerers) were thinking about that weekend's NFL games. Now that the playoffs are here, we'll be doing it for the games that REALLY matter! Today we discuss the Wildcard round (with bonus comments on the low-profile bowl games on the schedule). Next week we'll focus on the four-game divisional round. The conference championships will follow after that. Our Super Bowl edition over the first weekend of February will look at the game and some of the player propositions as well.

I'll take the Wildcard games in schedule order. Comments on the two bowl games this weekend will follow when the NFL is complete.

SATURDAY: WASHINGTON AT SEATTLE
The sharps really liked Washington here at the opening number. It was Seattle -6 right out of the gate. As I was writing this, the line had dropped all the way down to Seattle -3 with a -120 or -125 moneyline. I wasn't surprised the sharps liked the dog. They generally like underdogs, and they haven't been impressed with Seattle this year. But, a full field goal drop? What an insult to the oddsmakers! The sharps are saying that the oddsmakers posted one of the worst opening playoff lines ever! And, this isn't the only game they're saying that about this weekend.

You've probably heard people who say "trust the oddsmaker, he knows what the right number should be." I have to say that sharps are having less and less respect for opening numbers these days. The general public should probably respect the oddsmaker. He's smarter than squares. Is he smarter than sharps? This result will help us learn about that. The Vegas sharps were VERY strong on Washington at +6, and have kept hitting them all the way down. This isn't a public move. The public loves to bet home teams, particularly name teams that have played in recent Super Bowls. We probably won't see the sharps on Washington at this new line of +3. Some will buy back on the favorite now.

The total has been hanging around 39.5 and 40. If rain is in the gametime forecast, that will come down a point or so. If not, the sharps will largely be uninvolved with the total.


SATURDAY: JACKSONVILLE AT PITTSBURGH
I've heard so many arguments about this game it's unbelievable. Many sharps love Jacksonville, and that's driven this line all the way from Pittsburgh -1 to Jacksonville -3 at last report. It had been sitting at -2 or -2.5 the last couple of days, but just went to -3 as I was writing this. It's obvious that only one side of the argument is betting!

The Jacksonville backers know that the Jaguars dominated Pittsburgh on this field a few weeks ago. They should have won by more than they did...and they won by a TD anyway. That's a lot more than the spread here. People arguing for Pittsburgh are saying that good teams never lose on their home fields twice in the same year to the same team (which is something that rarely has a chance to happen anyway), and that Ben Roethlisberger has a lot more playoff experience than David Garrard. Jacksonville people are backing up their opinion with cash. Pittsburgh people are talking big but hiding under a table when it comes time to place a bet. It's all bluster. They know Pittsburgh was outclassed in the first meeting, and they've got more injuries to deal with now than they did back then.

Now that the line has moved to a field goal, that might bring Pittsburgh money out of the woodwork. I can tell you that the big money sharps liked Jacksonville at anything below that line. I'm not sure what will happen between now and kickoff as the public starts to make its presence felt as well.

The total here has gone up from 37.5 to 40 because the weather wasn't expected to be too bad. If that changes, it will go back down again.


SUNDAY: NY GIANTS AT TAMPA BAY
It's amazing how much line movement we've seen this weekend. You'd think the oddsmakers would have a better read on bettors by now! This line opened at Tampa Bay -1, and has been bet up to -2.5 and -3 since. This is one of those games that might bounce back and forth between those latter two numbers all weekend. Tampa Bay backers will lay anything less than a field goal...and they'll pile up their bets when they see -2.5. Giants backers want the full field goal. They hit the game hard at +3. If this game lands on -3 the sportsbooks are going to take a bath.

Obviously Tampa Bay would have to be considered the sharp side in the big picture. But, if the game day line is sitting on three, I'd guess that most of the sharps betting THAT DAY would be on the Giants. Line value is critical here.

The total has been sitting on 39.5 all week. Weather isn't likely to be an issue. If the sharps were going to play the total, they would have played it already. This is clearly a week where the Wise Guys had very strong opinions on the opening team side numbers, and nothing of interest on the totals.


SUNDAY: TENNESSEE AT SAN DIEGO
The moves just keep coming! San Diego opened at -7, and is now all the way up to -10. The sharps were looking for a decisive victory here anyway. Late week injury news isn't helping the Tennessee cause. I do think it was mostly sharps on the early move, and possibly late week public sentiment on the push from -9 to -10. You don't often see sharps lay -9 when -7 or -8 was available earlier in the week. But, there may have been some "betting the news" hoping to get a 9-11 middle if the public keeps hitting San Diego over the weekend. With this being the last game on the card, the public has most of the weekend to move the line even higher than it is right now.

We do have a total move here. This one opened at 41, and is now sitting at 39. The totals guys I know respect both of these defenses, and are skeptical of both quarterbacks. The first meeting was largely a defensive battle, though Tennessee faded late and allowed San Diego to win in overtime. The game was 34-all in regulation...and it was a bit lucky to get that high. Better weather and some defensive injuries have tempered the enthusiasm a bit in the rematch. I don't think we'll see the line go lower unless rain becomes a sure thing. Check your forecast. There is a decent chance right now for some rain in San Diego Sunday afternoon.


INTERNATIONAL BOWL: BALL STATE VS. RUTGERS (Saturday)
The sharps are looking at the favorite and the Over here. There's little respect for MAC defenses. And, Rutgers has a variety of weapons that could exploit weaknesses on a fast track in a dome. The team side line has moved from Rutgers -9.5 up to -11. The total has gone from 59 up to 61.

I do want to point out though that the action in this game has been much less than what we've seen in the NFL. It doesn't take much to move the number in a meaningless bowl game. Sportsbooks are largely confident in their NFL playoff lines...so you know A LOT of money came in to move those numbers as far as they've moved.

We might see some late money on the dog. Some old-timers take all double digit dogs they see regardless of who's playing. That didn't work with Illinois against USC, but has worked pretty well otherwise.


GMAC BOWL: BOWLING GREEN VS. TULSA (Sunday)
There's been minimal interest in this game. It's also favorite and Over...but with just half point moves in those directions. The Over/Under here was 76, and just moved to 76.5 as I was writing this. Who would bet Over a high number like 76?! Obviously somebody that's expecting a wild 45-40 shootout. This game is outdoors though, which means you have to check the weather on game day before asking for that kind of explosion.

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

thx for the good write - up