Divisional Playoffs

[Capt. N-R]

I have acquired some perspective over time on how to cap the playoffs…..

I will credit the Sports Reporter (who I read every week for many season but now do my own thing mostly with the NFL) for one nugget. Over time you borrow a little from everywhere and simply develop your own techniques. They have always had one theory for the Super Bowl:

take the team with the better road team differential. The logic is that teams that do well on the road do better in the playoffs. These teams have demonstrated they can handle adversity. This weekend is the divisional playoffs and it is the first step to getting to the big show.

AS a point of reference---here are other great teams with their road differentials (with meaningless last week games excluded) Note: strike seasons of 82 and 87 are excluded

1978 Steelers +95
1979 Steelers +47
1980 Raiders +6
1981 49ers +26
1983 Raiders +67
1984 49ers +166
1985 Bears +102
1986 Giants +23
1988 49ers +84
1989 49ers +70
1990 Giants +50
1991 Redskins +80 (7 games)
92 Cowboys +62
93 Cowboys +50 (includes 22 point loss opening week with Emmitt’s holdout)
94 49ers +112 (7 games)
95 Dallas +100
96 Green Bay +95
97 Broncos +9
98 Broncos +75
99 Rams +87
2000 Ravens +40
2001 Patriots +34
2002 Buccaneers +75
2003 Patriots +7
2004 Patriots +79
2005 Steelers +80
2006 Colts -22

Other non-Super Bowl Champs
1983 Redskins +105
1984 Dolphins +100
1985 Patriots +12
1986 Broncos –12
1989 Broncos +52
1990 Bills +69
1991 Bills +35
1992 49ers +100
1994 Chargers +42
1998 Falcons +92
1998 Vikings +71
2001 Rams +117
2002 Raiders +65
2004 Colts +90
2005 Colts +116


This year's road differential

NE +153
Jax +22 (7 games kciking out the last game when Garrard and RB's rested)

GB +38
Sea -1 (7 games--throwing out Atlanta)

Colts +101
SD +15

Dallas +61
Giants +52



4* Packers -7 -125 (bought the hook)

This based on Seahawks lack of running game. They haven't played a playoff team until last week in about 10 games. Packers have better cornerbacks to match up with Seahawk receivers.

Back later with night game.................

[Capt. N-R]

Tonight

4* Patriots -13

It is so tempting to take a 12-4 team getting 13 points but the Patriots are the right side here.

Lots of material to review................here is what triggers me

There have been 6 teams that have finished with +240 differentials since the advent of the 16 game regular season:

Here is there divisional round results

99 Rams 49-37 over the Vikes
98 Vikings over the Cardinals 41-21
96 Packers 35-14 over the 49ers
91 Redskins 24-7 over the Falcons
85 Bears 21-0 over the Giants
84 49ers 21-10 over the Giants

The average score is 31.8 to to 14.8

In addition---here is another good filter:

Take any team in the divisional round that played in last year's conference championship game that is playing a team with 4 or more less regular season wins:

New England fits this year (playing last year in the AFC Championship) with 16 wins against 12 by Jacksonville.

Here is that list:

2004 Eagles defeat Vikings 27-14
1998 Broncos defeat Dolphins 38-3
1994 49ers defeat Bears 44-15
1989 49ers defeat Vikings 41-13
1984 49ers defeat Giants 21-10
1983 Redskins defeat Rams 51-7
1978 Steelers defeat Broncos 34-10

The average score is 36.6 to 10.3

Throw in the road differential above with the Patriots at +153 (second only to the 1984 49ers) and it would take a special effort by the Jaguars to be in the game at the end.

The public saw a gutsy Jaguar win last week on prime time and saw recent struggles in prime time by the Pats to beat the Eagles, Ravens, and Giants.

Patriots 38 Jaguars 17