The Divisional Rounds by Chris Schultz

[Lukester]

Week 19 Picks: The Divisionals:
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4:30 PM Saturday, January 16, 2010
Arizona New Orleans (-7.0)
Schultz Picks: Arizona:
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All football logic says that both teams should be able to move the ball effectively and the team with the ball last just might win. Lost in the unbelievable passing performance of Kurt Warner is the fact the Cardinals also ran for 156 yards, with a 6.8 yard average, against the Packers' No. 2 ranked run defence. The accuracy of Warner's passes was amazing and if he can duplicate that type of precision another big performance is very possible as the Saints' pass defence is ranked 26th. Drew Brees will have success against the Arizona defence because there are just too many great running backs and receivers on New Orleans. Also, Arizona has questionable depth if Brees goes with a five receiver set. With that said I like Arizona because they are battle tested and precise. They did it last season and once again this year they are rising to the competitive challenge. The Cards take it.



8:15 PM Saturday, January 16, 2010
Baltimore Indianapolis (-7.0)
Schultz Picks: Baltimore:
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This is physical vs. finesse and I think finesse will out perform the physical. First quarter football is so important in this game. The team that can jump out to an early lead can create panic in the opposition and make them take risks that result in turnovers. For Baltimore, can Ray Rice, LeRon McClain and Willis McGahee dominate the time of possession, taking away opportunities from Peyton Manning? It could happen as the Colts were 24th in run defence this past season. For the Colts, can they spread out the Ravens, isolate key one-on-ones, pass protect and let Manning's preparation provide a game-changing play? The Colts have to build a lead to force the Ravens out of the time of possession play-calling approach. If the Colts tackle well, specifically when Rice has the ball, they can force numerous third and long situations for Joe Flacco's offence. Tackling is everything in this game. The Colts will advance.



1:00 PM Sunday, January 17, 2010
Dallas Minnesota (-2.5)
Schultz Picks: Dallas:
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The key for Dallas is to forget what happened last week and concentrate on an early Sunday and a tough Viking team. Last week's dominant playoff win over the Eagles was a first for Tony Romo, Wade Phillips and the Cowboys since 1996. Forget it and fast, because come Noon on Sunday, the challenge becomes the Minnesota Vikings who match up both physically across the line of scrimmage and in downfield speed with the combination of Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice. The Vikings had six receivers with at least 40 catches in the regular season. But, the Vikings will be starting a rookie middle linebacker and the Cowboys' strengths are their interior three (Kyle Kosier, Andre Gurode and Leonard Davis) in the run game and Jason Witten in between the hash marks in the passing game. Brett Favre has seen and done everything during his career, but right now Romo is playing like he has seen and done everything too. I'm taking Dallas.



4:40 PM Sunday, January 17, 2010
NY Jets San Diego (-7.0)
Schultz Picks: NY Jets:
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This is a competition between a team with heart and focus (Jets) and a team with skill and polish (Chargers). The Jets depend on D, but Cedric Benson did run for 169 yards and as good as Darrelle Revis is a cornerback, he did have two illegal contact penalties and a pass interference penalty. The Chargers depend of offence and Philip Rivers will play a much better game than Carson Palmer did last week. Peyton Manning is the best QB in the league, but you can make an argument that Rivers is second. He and his offence have had time to study, study and study some more the Jets third and long pressure packages of fronts and blitzes, a real preparation advantage for San Diego. Still, the Jets are not going to go down without a major fight and Mark Sanchez has shown remarkable football maturity. Jets take this one.


*Through 260 games, Schultz is 141-113-6 against the spread;including 2-2 in Playoffs.

[Lukester]

The mystery of the Playoff Bye-Week advantage:
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The top question for me right now is how effective the top four teams in the NFL will be in their respective Divisional Playoff games.

There really is no information to depend upon as it relates to teams coming off the first round bye week. The reason for this is due to the fact it isn't really a bye week, it's an anticipation week.

Brad Childress did give his Vikings extended time off and because of that will expect his guys to be perfect at practice in preparation for the Cowboys. If his players do not give him what he wants, he may have made a mistake because to the best of my knowledge the Colts, Chargers and Saints all practiced.

Usually, after a Sunday game in Week 17 the players on a team with a bye would have Monday and Tuesday off. They would then review the previous game, followed by a mental rep/fundamentals practice on Wednesday. The Thursday and Friday practice approach depends on the coach. In many cases, the team already has a plan for both potential opponents and, as crazy as this sounds, uses these days to practice for both teams.

Then, Saturday and Sunday would be off days followed by a reality check on Monday after the opponent for the coming game has been established.

For the Chargers and Colts, the extra time has tremendous value. The Jets, who play San Diego, have an exceptionally complicated defence that takes time and reps to assimilate. Philip Rivers and centre Nick Hartwick have to be familiar with maybe 20 or 25 different looks.

The Colts play a Ravens team that has the best balance between being aggressive without losing control in the league. Peyton Manning and his centre Jeff Saturday have to see the same things about the Baltimore defence at the same time, all game long.

The rest that teams get is a big advantage, not so much physically, although that helps, but mentally. If you include the exhibition season it has been about 21 straight weeks, not including the regular season bye week, where the players have had to get up on Sunday and change their personality to play pro football. Having that one Sunday morning to get out of that routine and the massive anxiety rush of a game day is 100% rejuvenating... or is it?

Take the Ravens, for example. They played in Oakland to make the playoffs and then played in New England to stay in the playoffs and now they head back on the road to play in Indianapolis. The Ravens as a team and as individuals are about as emotionally and physically tough as you can get. They don't think too much, they just play. Now, they have a short week as they take on the Colts Saturday night.

Is the week off an advantage or a disadvantage, I really don't know. Having extra time enhances preparation and having a limited time enhances attitude.

Many people are at their best when they are the busiest and for others it is the opposite; they are at their best when they ease into a competitive situation.

It is very difficult, and a risk, to duplicate the intensity of a practice to prepare for a playoff game. What players need to do is mentally behave as if it was.

Overall teams with the extra time do have an advantage as you can put in different looks and different plays that can potentially give you an edge.

In order to execute at a high level, players need to have balance because as much as football is a physical game, it is also mental and as much as it is mental, it is also emotional. Getting all three factors to work at maximum efficiency is a quality the best players in football have mastered. When you add in that extra boost of energy, it should get that much easier to reach top level... or does it?

Having it all together right before "kickoff" is a unique skill that everyone should try to develop and control, no matter what occupation they have. In football, that ability is everything because, as always, it's not the best team that wins, it's the best team that day.

--Chris Schultz.