Does Playing The Super Bowl Indoors Make A Difference?

[IloveBaseball]

The below article is authored by Larry Trusley, the 'Wiz of Odds'. I found it to be interesting.

Jan 31, 2008


Sunday will mark the thirteenth time that the NFL has chosen an indoor venue to stage it’s championship game since naming it the Super Bowl. It is my belief that a windless indoor stadium is ideal for passing situations and Sunday’s game should be fun to watch. When looking for a wagering angle I prefer not to hazard a guess as to which team playing the game indoors helps the most. One angle I have been studying though is how this controlled environment affects how many total points are scored. It is what the books in Vegas call betting overs and unders or totals betting. This year’s number is currently set at 53 ½ points. You may bet that the total number of points scored in the game (both teams) will go over or under that number. You will be required to lay down $11.00 for every $10.00 you are trying to win. I thought I would share with you this week a short analysis of my study.

First let’s look at the overall “totals” results for the forty-one Super Bowls played:
Overs 19
Unders 20
Push 1

Super Bowl I had no total number posted. As you can see the boys in Vegas have done an excellent job of posting numbers that stir equal wagering on both sides of the line.

Now let’s look at the dozen INDOOR games:

Super Bowl Totals Results
XII 39 Under
XV 37½ Under
XVI 48 Under
XX 37½ Over
XXIV 48 Over
XXVI 48½ Over
XXVIII 50½ Under
XXXI 49½ Over
XXXIV 48 Under
XXXVI 53½ Under
XXXVIII 37½ Over
XL 47 Under

That’s 7 unders and 5 overs making betting under the total in indoor Super Bowls a 58% winner overall. The average point total posted on these games comes out to 45.38 which is far below this year’s 53 ½ figure. The average number of ACTUAL points scored in these twelve games has been 47 ½ points and in 7 of the 12 (58%) the total points scored was well under the 53 ½ posted for this year’s contest. Yes, I know all about the 589 record points the Pats scored this year and that these two teams combined for 73 points in week seventeen but since then the Giants have won three playoff games by scores of 24-14, 21-17 and 23-20. The Pats won their two playoff games by scores of 31-20 and 21-12. Not one of these games went over the big game total posted this year. Another interesting observation is that the high flying Patriots averaged 41.38 points per game in their first eight regular season games but only 32.25 in the second half of the season. That’s over 9 points a game difference. As I have told you in this space many times before 80% of the public bets favorites and many of these same people bet the over because it’s more fun to root for something to happen than not. Trust me the boys in Vegas know this fact and that is why this year’s number (53 ½) ties Super Bowl XXXVIII for the highest total number for an indoor game. Oh by the way that February 3, 2002 game ended Patriots 20 Rams 17. An easy under! Thanks for listening and let’s chat next Friday.

Stat of the Day: NFC teams have gone 0-5 as an underdog in NFC venues.

Larry Trusley
The Wiz of Odds

[ZoomVT]

my fav part of the article right here:

Stat of the Day: NFC teams have gone 0-5 as an underdog in NFC venues.