Each nfl club falls into one of three categories

[Lukester]

Whenever I try to assess or evaluate a team's playoff possibility before they have even played their first game, I ask if they are rebuilding, reloading, or refining. Those are three distinct and different categories of assessment, with specific challenges for possible success.

First, if you are rebuilding, you are doing just that – whether it's with a new coach or the reality of lack of talent, the truth is you have no playoff shot this year and in all likelihood over the next three years. Although the future looks bright you just don't know how the players will react and respond to a 16-game NFL schedule.

Teams that are rebuilding always have a massive insecurity around them in every way. The coaches are under pressure to improve the players as fast as they can and the players are under pressure to prove themselves in every game.

The teams that are rebuilding, in my estimation, and therefore have no Super Bowl chance are:

AFC
1. Buffalo
2. Cleveland
3. Jacksonville
4. Kansas City
5. Oakland
6. Denver

NFC
1. Washington
2. Detroit
3. Carolina
4. Tampa Bay
5. St. Louis
6. Seattle

The next category, reloading, is the most difficult to evaluate with clarity. Reloading are the teams with 8-8 won/loss records that with one or two key players could turn a season of frustration last year into a season of accomplishment this year. Or, they could be a team on the decline due to a key retirement or injury. Reloading teams are excellent to be a part of because of genuine optimism, and an attitude of controlling what we, as a team, can control. Arizona in the 2008 Super Bowl was a reloading team that almost won it all. It was the same with Cincinnati in winning every divisional game last season.

The teams that are reloading and have a shot to win it all, but have to get into the playoffs first are:

AFC
1. Miami
2. New England
3. Pittsburgh
4. Houston
5. Tennessee

NFC
1. N.Y. Giants
2. Philadelphia
3. Chicago
4. Arizona
5. San Francisco

The final category is refining as it relates to football. These teams usually do not make many moves in free agency, have a top QB, running back, deep threat, and strong defence. For whatever reason, if they need a field goal to win, they get it. If they need a turnover, no problem, we will force it. Some teams like San Diego have been refining for quite a while, and maybe their time will come this year, or never. Refining is no guarantee that you will get to the Super Bowl, it just means you will make the playoffs and once you get there, you have a chance.

The teams that are doing no more than refining in my estimation are:

AFC
1. N.Y. Jets
2. Baltimore
3. Cincinnati
4. Indianapolis
5. San Diego

NFC
1. Dallas
2. Green Bay
3. Minnesota
4. Atlanta
5. New Orleans

With these teams in many ways it comes down to one key player having one excellent year. The best aspect of NFL football is that each year someone surprises, and each year success is tough to repeat. So whether it's rebuilding, reloading, or refining, I hope everyone stays healthy, especially with an 18-game season in the future.

by Chris Schultz.