early game info

[Bee]

I like the Giants D against a smallish TB O-line and a old, rusty Garcia. I also like Manning after looking like Montana the week before. Jacobs is solid too.

Giants +3. Here is a write up from one of my ff sources you may find helpful:


NY Giants (10-6) at Tampa Bay (9-7)

When and Where: Sunday, January 6, 2008, 1 p.m. ET, Tampa, FL

Game-time Weather Report: Conditions: Mostly sunny; Temperature: 78 degrees; Winds: 9 mph; Chance of Precipitation: 10%



Match-up Overview:

It’s Garcia the Giant-killer vs. Eli and the diminishing expectations. Jeff Garcia is starting against the Giants in the playoffs with his third different team, having previously knocked them out with both the Eagles and 49ers. In 2003, he engineered the second-biggest playoff comeback in league history against the G-Men, accounting for nearly 400 total yards and four touchdowns. His short drops and quick release have given them fits in the past, but the Giants have the league’s best pass rush and will look to generate some pressure before he can get the ball out to dangerous wideouts Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard. While the Bucs mostly rested up in the last two weeks of the regular season, the Giants built some playoff momentum with big road wins and a decent challenge of the Patriots’ unbeaten march. They could pound the ball with the huge Brandon Jacobs against the undersized Buc front seven, or change the pace with emerging rookie Ahmad Bradshaw, but their hopes mostly ride on the shaky shoulders of Eli Manning, who has failed in his only two previous playoff tries and is coming off another typically inconsistent season in which he threw 23 TDs and a career-high 20 interceptions.



Looking Glass:



Looking Better Than Usual:



Brandon Jacobs (RB, NYG) – He came on strong in the last three weeks of the season, with two 100-yard games on the ground, some productivity as a receiver, and 3 TDs. And the Giants are bound to take their chances pounding the rock with him since their passing game will have its work cut out penetrating Tampa Bay’s stingy cover-2 scheme. So he’s a must-start against a Buc defense that has given up 1 total TD, an average of 88 yards, and some receptions to opposing RBs in its last four games. His punishing, powerful running style will work wonders against Tampa’s smallish front seven, and even though the Giant O-line could miss C Shaun O’Hara in the middle, with a full load of carries, Jacobs should pick up ample yardage behind his big uglies, particularly with effective FB Madison Hedgecock leading the way. The Buc linebackers and safeties have been exceptional in run support all season, so it’s certainly not a cake matchup, but he can wear them down over the course of four quarters, chip in as a receiver, and give them headaches near the goal-line. Since the Buc D has quickness at every position, you have to be concerned that he’ll struggle to get to the outside, where he has been at his best this season, but Jacobs will be the alpha and omega of New York’s game-plan, which should ultimately allow him to thrive. For him to come up small, LB Derrick Brooks will have to single-handedly nullify him, and we don’t see that happening. He busted loose for 71 yards and a TD last season against the Bucs, and he’ll be even busier this time around, so the sky is the limit for B-Jake.



Joey Galloway (WR, TB) – He struggled to find the endzone down the stretch and he’s a little banged up, but you have to like his chances of coming through with a few big plays against a Giant defense that has given up 1 total TD and an average of 7/105 to opposing WRs in its last four games. New York’s already beatable secondary is thin at the corner and safety position due to injuries, and Tampa Bay will need to generate some offense through the air, since their running game could be stymied at times. Look for him to see plenty of targets in the intermediate and deep passing game when the Bucs give Graham a blow and use his after-burner speed to get behind the Giants’ lackluster secondary. He posted a measly 4/32 against the Giants last season, but with a healthy Garcia under center and Coach Gruden likely to dial up some intriguing route combinations to confuse New York’s less than stellar corners, his potential is much greater in this favorable matchup. As always, he has the potential to come up small if he can’t link up with Garcia on the deep ball, but he’ll see more targets than usual if New York plays the run aggressively as we expect, which bodes well for 5-7 grabs and a serviceable bottom line. Keep in mind that Giant CB Sam Madison could be out, too, which would certainly help Galloway’s chances of hitting a homerun.



Tampa Bay Defense – Giant C Shaun O’Hara could miss the game, which would be good news for a Buc defense that doesn’t rush the passer all that well but does take the ball away and occasionally scores with it. They have 10 takeaways in their last 4 games, with a pair of Team Defense/Special Teams touchdowns thrown in for good measure. The Giants have more giveaways in the last month (15) than any team in the NFL, and Eli Manning is capable of blowing up (not in a good sense) and throwing 2-3 interceptions. Ronde Barber knows Eli’s tendencies from watching brother Tiki in this offense all those years, so he could be poised to take advantage. The only downfall in using the Bucs is that the Giants could have a lot of success with the running game, thus limiting Tampa Bay’s chances for fantasy points.



Looking Neither Better Nor Worse Than Usual:



Plaxico Burress (WR, NYG) – The ankle injury made his second half of 2007 somewhat forgettable, but he got back in rhythm with Eli and made an impact in the vertical passing game in the last couple of weeks, and with Shockey out of the offensive equation, he’ll be the primary red zone weapon for the G-Men, so he should be fine against a very impressive Buc defense that has given up an average of 7/79/1 to opposing WRs in its last four games. He’ll obviously have a distinct size advantage on Tampa’s undersized corners, but their scheme doesn’t permit many big plays and their physical DBs prevent receivers from picking up YAC in chunks, so a TD go along with modest catch/yardage totals seems like the best you could hope for. He’ll pay a hefty price for going over the middle, as the Buc safeties can hit with the best of them, yet he figures to be the busiest Giant receiver in this tricky matchup, so solid production should follow, as long as the shaky Eli doesn’t fold under the big-game pressure. Last season, he beat up on the Bucs for 7/86/1, and while he may not get that many yards this time around with the Buc secondary playing such stingy, shut-down coverage, he’s nearly a shoe-in for a score based on the likelihood he’ll some jump-balls near the goal line. Just bear in mind that the Giants will run the heck out of the football in hopes of out-physicaling the Bucs, which could limit Plax’s impact.



Earnest Graham (RB, TB) – He was one of the most pleasant fantasy surprises of 2007, and he’s been a TD/reception beast since he took over the job under Coach Gruden. But the sledding should be tough for him between the tackles against a fairly stout Giant defense that has given up an average of 114 yards, 1 TD, and some significant production through the air to opposing RBs in its last four games. So he’ll need to come up large as a pass-catcher and get to the outside on screens to really have a studly performance. The Giants could potentially be without LB Kawika Mitchell, which would help Graham’s chances on runs to the outside, but he’s going to have his work cut out for him weaving his way past LB Antonio Pierce, who’s been a force in the middle of New York’s defense all year, and New York’s sizeable front seven. Ultimately, he’s a guy you have to start based on the likelihood that he’ll get 20+ touches and be the emphasis of the gameplan, but it’s a tough matchup for him on the ground, and the yardage could be hard to come by unless he takes some runs to the second level. With that said, he’ll need to fend off Michael Pittman on third down and be active in the short passing game to go off. It does help his stock, though, that he’s been adept at punching the ball across the stripe in the red zone.



Eli Manning (QB, NYG) – He had an overall shaky 2007 season, but his 4-TD outburst against the Pats last week surely boosted his confidence, so he should head into the playoffs with some swagger and do something noteworthy against a Buc defense that has allowed an average of 136 yards and 2 TDs to opposing QBs in its last four games. He won’t give you much yardage, since the Giants will forego the pass and feed Jacobs, and Tampa Bay’s scheme doesn’t give up many big passing plays, but he could very well hook up with Burress and Boss for some scores in the red zone. DE Gaines Adams and the rest of the Buc pass rush will make every effort to get a hand in his face and pressure him into bad decisions, but their blitz packages aren’t exactly unstoppable and Manning’s O-line is strong, so Manning should have ample time to survey the field and find the open guy. We don’t envision his having much success stretching the field, as Tampa’s exceptional corners and safeties have made the Bucs one of the hardest teams in the NFL to throw on, yet the pleasant weather in Tampa Bay should allow him to post respectable digits. He threw for 154 yards with 1 TD against the Bucs in 2006, but the matchup is much worse this time around, with Tampa’ secondary having rediscovered their mojo in 2007, and he’s likely to make some mistakes. As a result, we can’t spin him as anything more than a mediocre play, especially since he’s been essentially hit-or-miss all year.



Jeff Garcia (QB, TB) – He showed in 2007 that he’s not exactly capable of lighting up the scoreboard with multiple TDs, and he could show some signs of rust since he wasn’t active much late in the season. But his ability to scramble in the pocket and sidestep pressure should allow him to make spontaneous plays and have a solid outing against a Giant defense that has given up an average of 200 yards and 1 TD to opposing QBs in its last four games. The vicious pass-rushing trio of Osi Umenyiora, Michael Strahan, and Justin Tuck will bring the heat at him for much of the day, so he could be uncomfortable in the pocket at times. But the Giant secondary has issues at corner with Madison iffy, which will help him fire the pigskin with success to Galloway and his tight ends. The matchup is so-so due to the number of blitzes he’ll have to deal with, but when you consider that Graham could have a tough time running the rock between the tackles and take into account the holes in the Giant secondary that he could exploit, it becomes apparent that Garcia is a safe bet to throw it enough to give you serviceable production. If CB Sam Madison is ruled out, you could see him take more than his usual 3-5 shots deep to Galloway, which is particularly encouraging for his potential.



Amani Toomer (WR, NYG) – Toomer had a pretty pedestrian season highlighted by a ton of missed connections with Manning, and the Giants aren’t likely to generate many fireworks in the passing game this week, so he’s just a decent play against a very stingy Buc defense that has allowed an average of 7/79/1 to opposing WRs in its last four games. Tampa Bay’s corners play a brand of tough, physical coverage with their corners and safeties that should prevent Toomer from having a big day and it’s also worth keeping in mind that the Giants could get off the bus running the football given that the Buc defensive backfield is chock full of talent and Manning has struggled. With that said, we suspect he’ll see his usual 5-7 targets as the possession guy in the Giant passing game and do OK, but don’t bank on him for massive yardage, as it’s a brutal matchup against a high-flying secondary that rarely allows receivers to shake free downfield for the long gainer. Ultimately, he’ll need a short red zone TD grab to really give you some explosion at your flex, and we figure those looks should go to Burress, so don’t expect the world. After all, he scored only 3 TDs this year and lacks the quickness to hurt Tampa’s speedy, swarming corners and safeties.



Ike Hilliard (WR, TB) – He’s nicked up, Michael Clayton could continue to steal some of his targets, and his production down the stretch tailed off big time after a hot first half, so Hilliard’s nothing more than a mediocre play against a Giant defense that has allowed 1 total TD and an average of 7/105 to opposing WRs in its last four games. Hilliard has a shot at making some waves in the short and intermediate passing game, since the Giant secondary could be without CB Sam Madison and they’re already very thin at the safety position, but all the upside lies with Galloway, as he’s the big-play receiver in Coach Gruden’s scheme. With that said, look for Hilliard to snatch 4-6 catches for decent yardage, but realize that he’ll do his damage on underneath dump-offs and be an afterthought to Graham and Galloway in terms of involvement. He could benefit if the Giants hem in Graham and force Garcia to beat them through the air as we expect, but he hasn’t done enough lately to inspire confidence, so prepare for somewhat ordinary totals from Ike in this so-so matchup.



Kevin Boss (TE, NYG) – He found the endzone in two of his last three games, and he looked particularly agile in Week Seventeen against the Pats, but Manning won’t have an easy time picking apart the Bucs, so Boss is just a decent start against a Tampa Bay defense that has given up 2 total TDs and an average of 2/17 to opposing TEs in its last four games. His size should allow him to catch a few balls in the heart of the field against Tampa’s exceptional linebackers and safeties, but it’s overall a bad matchup for the Giant passing game and one that should force them to lean heavily on Jacobs and the ground game, so Boss might not have all that many opportunities to make plays. His involvement in the red zone offense makes him a threat to score a short TD, but he’s still somewhat of an unknown, and Eli can revert to his shaky ways at the drop of a hat. As a result, you shouldn’t plug-and-play him with high hopes. After all, Burress will be the guy Manning looks for the most, Boss could spend a fair amount of his time run-blocking with the Giants likely to run it with frequency, and the Buc secondary could very well shut down the air attack, which they’ve done to plenty of teams in 2007.

N.Y. Giants Defense – The Giants have the league’s top pass rush, with 53 sacks during the season, but they’re facing a QB (Jeff Garcia) who has a quick drop and quick release and doesn’t get sacked or picked very often. Garcia throws an interception only once every 87 passes, and he gets sacked only about once every 18 attempts, and if CB Sam Madison is out, that bodes worse for the Giants. However, the Bucs have given up 10 sacks in their last three games (keep in mind Garcia didn’t play much in the last two) and their offensive line is the youngest in the league, so maybe their inexperience is starting to show. Plus, C Arron Sears was hurt in the last game, although he is expected to play. That line will certainly have its hands full against Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck, and Osi Umenyiora. It’s not a great matchup for the Giants, but they might do something and live to see another playoff day.



Looking Worse Than Usual:

None of note.



Too Risky To Play:

None of note.



Reaches of the Week:



Alex Smith (TE, TB) – He had a pretty lame 2007 season, and Jerramy Stevens has all of a sudden become a weapon for Coach Gruden to make use of, but the Bucs incorporate their tight ends heavily into the gameplan, and Garcia is notorious for breaking the pocket and checking it down to his underneath receivers, so Smith’s worth a reach against a Giant defense that has permitted 2 total TDs and an average of 3/46 to opposing TEs in its last four games. The G-men, who have been gashed by tight ends all year, are seriously hurting at the safety position, and they could be down a linebacker if LB Kawika Mitchell can’t play, so it wouldn’t be shocking if Smith did some damage off play-action in this favorable matchup. Graham alone won’t be enough for the Bucs to advance, since the Giants will aim to take him out of the game, and Garcia will need to throw it a lot to keep the chains moving. More passing could mean more opportunities for Smith and one thing’s for sure – Tampa Bay has shown time and again this season that they’ll dial up passing plays to their tight ends inside the 20. Therefore, a TD could be on the horizon for Smith, but more than 3-5 catches seems highly unlikely, as Galloway and Graham should lead all Buc receivers.



History Report:

These two East Coast teams faced each other in Week Eight of 2006 at the Meadowlands, with the Giants winning by 2 TDs, 17-3.



Giants – QB Eli Manning was 16/31 for 154 yards, with 1 TD and 0 INTs at home last season versus the Bucs. RB Tiki Barber was still around (26/68), but RB Brandon Jacobs (4/71) scored the TD, and WR Plaxico Burress (7/86) caught the game’s only passing TD in the low-key win over Tampa Bay back in Week Eight of 2006.



Buccaneers – Bruce Gradkowski was the TB QB last season on the road against the Giants, and he was 20/48 for 139 yards, with 0 TDs and 0 INTs. The Buc offense was really lifeless in that game. For example, RB Caddy Williams was their best back, with 8 carries for 20 yards, and a RB, Michael Pittman, with 5 receptions for 38 yards, was the most productive guy in the receiving corps that day, with WR Joey Galloway catching just 4 passes for 32 yards. PK Matt Bryant's 43-yard FG was the most the team could muster in the loss.



Lineup Updates:

Giant rookie RB Ahmad Bradshaw is expected to be active, so he should get some touches in the game behind Jacobs and over Reuben Droughns (who could be in the mix when they are on top of the goal as he’s been at times in the second half of the season.
Place Kicker Report:

In one career playoff game, Lawrence Tynes failed to convert on his lone field goal attempt and didn’t have any extra points. In his last six games, Tynes failed to kick a field goal twice and had just one field goal three times. Matt Bryant has two field goals in as many career playoff games. He has averaged nearly seven fantasy points per game in two playoff appearances. Bryant kicked just two field goals and averaged six points a game in his last two outings of the season.



Game Prediction:

Giants 20 Buccaneers 17