garyrenard's season long NFL picks thread:

[garyrenard]

Figure I'll just do one long thread as opposed to a weekly set. Gives me a good chance to keep easier track of that 40% WP I usually have in the NFL.

That's a hint, y'all...fading me is usually a better bet than owning Microsoft stock.

For Thursday, I can't decide on a side. I think the Packers should win, but can see some sort of crazy 38-35 final. Therefore:

NO/GB OVER 47.5 1 unit.

[LordCC]

Good luck Gary!

[prolineinto]

Good luck GAry.

I think you are right we see a shootout tomorrow.

[garyrenard]

NO/GB OVER 47.5 1 unit.

A man had committed suicide by jumping off the Empire State Building. When the police came around looking for witnesses, they found a man who said he was standing at the window of his 41st floor office and saw the jumper fall past. When asked if he heard or saw anything, he said he heard the jumper saying something. "What did he say?", asked the investigator. "So far, so good, so far, so good", the man replied.

1-0 this season. So far, so good.

For Sunday:
Tennessee +2 over Jacksonville (1 unit): Down here in the South, when something really looks bad, we refer to it as a "hot mess". When you cut your presumptive starting QB less than a week before the regular season starts and give the keys to Luke McCown...well, Jacksonville is a hot mess.

St. Louis +4 over Philadelphia (1 unit): I'm on record in one thread as saying I thought St. Louis would go to the Super Bowl this year. I was only half-kidding when I said it. But with a full year of Sam Bradford and a weak division, I think they are as good a choice to easily win their division as anyone, and once you get into the playoffs, you have a chance for a run (see, Seahawks, Seattle: 2010). Also, with a shortened training camp this year, I think teams that changed a lot of personnel are apt to have a slow start until all the gears are meshing. Philly changed a lot of parts. I think they will finish the season with double-digit wins. But I think a 1-2 record in the first three weeks is a definite possibility.

Seattle/San Francisco UNDER 37.5 (1 unit) The 49ers have the ugly combination of being (1) snakebit, and (2) not very good. They just signed Frank (owww...that hurts) Gore to a big contract. I expect him to go down sometime in the second quarter. That, and believing that Tavaris Jackson will play like Tavaris Jackson, I think one of these teams is going to end their day in single digits.

[garyrenard]

I'm adding one more pick for tonight. This is pure tin-foil hat, conspiracy theory stuff, but I don't believe the NFL will allow the Jets to lose in NYC on the 10th anniversary of 9/11.

New York Jets (-270) 1 unit.

[Patriots Game]

I like your thinking

[BlueJaysMVP33]

Good Luck !!

[secondbase]

gl GR

[garyrenard]

Originally Posted by garyrenard

I'm adding one more pick for tonight. This is pure tin-foil hat, conspiracy theory stuff, but I don't believe the NFL will allow the Jets to lose in NYC on the 10th anniversary of 9/11.

New York Jets (-270) 1 unit.

My new motto: When in doubt, go the Illuminati route.

Went 1-2-1 on Sunday, not feeling horrible, since one loss was after Bradford and Jackson went down against the Eagles (yeah, yeah, it probably didn't matter) and the other one took a KO return AND a punt return in the last 3:45for the loss. I'll take the push from a crappy Tennessee/Jacksonville game.

I'm pleased that I avoided some of the land mines on yesterday's card. KC alone probably means an offshore book owner added 2 more mistresses to his stable.

Anyway, here's what I like for Monday:

New England -7 over Miami (1 unit): This was my favorite game on Wednesday, but remembering how well Miami does at home in September tempered my ardor a bit. I still like the side, I just don't love it.

Denver -3 (-125) (1 unit): Denver is my survivor pick, which in retrospect may have been a good thing, since KC and Cleveland swiped out so many folks in Week One. And SD almost took out everyone else.

Cleveland? Seriously? I may lose with Denver....but Cleveland? I know Cincy is gonna stink on ice, but Cleveland is a Week 16 pick when all the playoff teams are eliminated

2-2-1: (-.2 units)

[garyrenard]

After Week 1, 3-3-1, -.35 units

Went 1-1 on Monday night, taking New England and Denver. It's nice to have one game this week go precisely as I figured it. New England was hitting on most of it's cylinders while Miami actually played pretty well for a good part of the game.

Denver...ah Denver. Anyting I say here would get me sent to the penalty box.

Week 2 is on the boards and there are a couple of lines I don't get.

Dallas -3 over San Francisco (-120) 1 unit: Yeah, I know Dallas blew a game in New York on 9/11. But honestly, they looked pretty decent against the Jets until Romo threw up all over himself. And yeah, the 49ers won. Against Tavaris Jackson. And it took two kick returns by Ted Ginn Jr. I always put long kick returns more on the defense than the returner. Unless they're Devin Hester in his prime, I figure it's more a case of lousy special teams defending rather than great running. Doing it twice speaks more of Seattle's special teams than it does of the 49ers. I think Dallas wins this game, and I don't believe it's going to be particularly close.

New England -7 over San Diego (-120) 1 unit: New England just looks like they are going to score at will, and adding in the west-coast-team-travelling-to-the-east-coast factor, I think this game is going to see the Patroits scoring at least in the high 30's. San Diego didn't stop the run particularly well, and while they did shut down Donovan McNabb, Brady ain't McNabb.

[garyrenard]

Adding three more for Sunday: Let's call this the "Teams are never as good or as bad as they looked in Week 1" theory.

Kansas City +7.5 over Detroit (-110) 1 unit: I think this line is an over-reaction from last week. Kansas City had a putrid game against the Bills. I don't believe they got that bad (or the Bills that good) in the offseason. I've been waiting for Detroit to put together something good for awhile, and I think I'm still going to be waiting a little longer. You can insert your own Matt Millen rant here. I'd do one, but I have to be to work in 2 hours, so I don't have time.

Green Bay -10 over Carolina (-110) 1 unit: Before we start anointing Cam Newton as THE NEXT GREAT QB let's remember most NFL QB's have growing pains. One good game against Arizona does not make a trend. Green Bay's defense is so much better than Arizona's. I expect Newton to struggle early and often.

Arizona/Washington OVER 44 (-110) 1 unit: If you liked Cam Newton last week, you're gonna love Rex Grossman...huh, wha'??? Every season a team or two get the breaks on the schedule. Washington catches the Giants on Week 1 when their entire defense looked like a M*A*S*H unit, and then the flammable Arizona secondary. I think the Cardinal offense will score enough to not like a side, but the over is a good bet.

Good luck everyone.

[garyrenard]

Last week was the kind of week that makes you take up growing orchids as a hobby. Let's see...

Dallas -3. In OT, the Cowboys manage a 77 yd pass. Had the receiver run TWO MORE FRICKIN YARDS, he'd have scored a TD and I'd have covered. A push, but still...

GB -10. Leading 30-16 with less than a minute, Cam Newton scores a meaningless TD to turn my win into a loss.

Az/Wash OVER 44. Washington misses a two-point conversion in the 4th quarter. Yeah, I missed the total by one.

KC +7.5. Hey, I had this game covered all the way thru the 1st quarter.

NE -7. Oh...I won this one. Never mind.

1-3-1, -2.3 units. Overall, 4-6-2, -2.65 units. They say you learn more from your failures than you do from your successes. We'll see next week.

[garyrenard]

Starting out the week at 4-6-2, -2.35 units. We aren't going to panic. No, we aren't.

Jacksonville/Carolina OVER 43 -110 (1 unit): If I were really panicing, I'd make this my gazillion star lock of the millenium and beyond. I like this one a lot. Carolina's offense will put up points slightly faster than Carolina's defense gives them back. Lots of turnovers from both rookie QBs will mean someone's going to have good field position a few extra times. Both teams score more than 24 each.

Pittsburgh/Indianapolis UNDER 39.5 -110 (1 unit): I just don't see Indy scoring much of anything against the Steelers D. The only thing that scares me is that the Steelers might put up 40 by themselves. Saying that, you'd think I'd take the Steelers, but after losing with the Pack last week, I'm not giving up double digits on the road again unless the coach's last name is Belichick.

Green Bay -3.5 over Chicago -110 (1 unit): Facing Aaron Rodgers is tough. It's even tougher with your two starting safeties banged up.

[garyrenard]

Yeah, it was 1-2, but that's one more than I got on my King of the Hill card last weekend. 0-5, baby. Who says you can't have perfection.

I didn't plan on a monsoon in Carolina when I picked the game. No excuses, but that was some rainstorm. Funny, didn't get a drop here in Florida. The Packers did as advertised, and those pesky Colts put up 20. I think the Steelers are going to be a bad play for a few weeks. They have no consistency at all.

5-8-2, -3.85 units. I think I have a few units left at the ATM.

For Sunday:

Chicago -6 over Carolina -110 (2 units): I know the Bears are having some issues with sloppy play, but I don't think this game is going to be that close. Cam Newton has returned to Earth. Bears at home should win by double-digits.

San Diego -7 over Miami: -110 (1 unit) I don't think the Dolphins are going to travel well this year, particularly out to the West Coast. The big question here is whether or not Tony Sporano still has a job before or after the flight back.

Back with more after I consult with my cats.

[garyrenard]

OK, the cats and I have consulted. We don't agree on everything, but hey, I buy the friggin' cat food.

San Francisco/Philadelphia OVER 43.5 -110 (1 unit): SF should be able to score on a banged-up Eagle secondary, the Eagles should be able to score because they're the Eagles. Of course, if Vick doesn't play the full game, this could be a problem.

Kansas City +3 -125 (1 unit): The Chiefs screw up and win in the Andrew Luck Bowl.

Oakland +4 over New England +100 (1 unit) I almost never bet against New England, but there are a few too many things I like in the other direction. The Pats are travelling to the west coast, they're still a little banged up at TE, they have a big game next week against the Jets, and, oh yeah, the Raiders are pretty decent.