GFX's Stat-based pick for MNF

[GFootsXtreme]

lately i only post when i see statistics that work to my advantage. in looking at the bears-packers game tonight i see an angle i like and plan to exploit.

obv this is an important game to the bears. playoffs are potentially on the line, but even more important (? yes, it's true) they want to beat the crap out of the packers, plain and simple. they got beat down hard last time, and they know it, and at home in the cold pride comes into play BIG TIME tonight.

GB is motivated only by the desire to beat their rival, the Bears..but they won earlier already, and since favre left the team the revenge factor for the blowout to end last season is probably not in play

so, before i give you the simple stats i look at motivation and say the bears are MORE motivated, regardless of how much more.

the X-factor is the bears defense...they play well when they want to and most of the rest of the year suck...well i noticed end of last year they made a stand and this again is a game i expect to see them step up...so on to my play, right?

This season, removing the spread factor the Packers are 4-7-3 in the first quarter -- they were winning only 4 times out of 14 games this year, tied in 3 others.

The Bears on the other hand, are 8-3-2 without a spread - won 8, lost 3 and tied twice in the 1st quarter of their games.

Bears at home. Playoff implications. Cold weather. Playing a division rival in a big home game. The Bears will show up ready to play, and i expect the usual early statement they like to make with their scripted plays.

1* Bears 1st Q -0.5 +105

This line is begging for GB backers because GB backers get the tie. What the typical bettor may not know though is these stats, besides W/L:

1st Q only:

Bears overall score 7.1 give up 3.4, net +3.7
Packers overall score3.4 and give up 4.6, net -1.2, net diff of 4.9 pts!

H/A Bears advantage = +4.3, Packers = +0.5, net diff 3.8pts
L3 Bears advantage = +6 versus Pack = -7, net diff 13 pts

Please join with me and win your bet after only the 1st quarter ends and then enjoy the rest of the game without the stress of hoping your bet cashes.

WHO'S WITH ME???

[GFootsXtreme]

bad break there looks like they just ran out of time, glutton for it so i'll go 2nd q also for a make-up...-0.5