GFX's Week 9 Sharps and Squares Plays

[GFootsXtreme]

All season I've tried many things looking for a good consistent method...found one the last two weeks I liked.

2 weeks ago: 5-1
Last week: 3-1 posted, 5-2 overall (2-1 late games unposted)

The system is simple.

The squares are the contest players..the top 25 are due to lose overall, I chart who they play and take the top plays as a fade.

I have about 6 cappers I call sharps...I add some GOYs from respectable others, then have a sharps chart.

Compare the two charts and you have your sharp plays and fade the square plays!

Cincy +3
Dallas +3
Tampa Bay +10
NE/MIA Over 47

gl to everyone, I'll be back if with the last few minutes there is another play that is filtered out...

[Lukester]

Thanx, GFX

I'm not so sure about changing the system from week-to-week. Actually, it's not a good idea.

Love the Bengals here for sure.

Doubt the Cowboys can pull the W. Don't forget that DAL is still "America's Team" and the votes get too bias there imo.

But hey, GL as usual!

[greatdivide]

with ya on cincy

[GFootsXtreme]

Originally Posted by Lukester

Thanx, GFX

I'm not so sure about changing the system from week-to-week. Actually, it's not a good idea.

Love the Bengals here for sure.

Doubt the Cowboys can pull the W. Don't forget that DAL is still "America's Team" and the votes get too bias there imo.

But hey, GL as usual!

You may be right Lukester. My thinking is that everybody gets lucky, and overall the top 25 or so will lose every time...once they lose another group is tee'd up to lose the next week.

[GFootsXtreme]

two more to add for the late games:

Giants -5
Tennessee +4.5

[home dogs]

love the fade plays it seems this is the way to go....AM games looks good....on Tenn with you

[Lukester]

Originally Posted by GFootsXtreme

You may be right Lukester. My thinking is that everybody gets lucky, and overall the top 25 or so will lose every time...once they lose another group is tee'd up to lose the next week.

I've been quite busy with work as of late--but get this:

-Wk 1-6: very good for me. Even in my ATS pool which I stood in the Top-100/25,000 contestants. Dropped to about Rank 2100/25,000 after Wk 8. Wk 9 will put me back up with the Top cappers with a great week.

-Wk 7: most awful outing ever for me

-Wk 8: still too busy to look into the games...I was crushed once again

-Wk 9: stuck to my system and struck huge (2 $2 10-game parlays hit = $800 each. That's besides my $5 & $10 8-game parlays. Should Denver cover tonight 3 more parlays will cash making this my best weekend ever. Do I attribute these Wins to good capping? No I don't cuz I only spent about 3 hours on Friday to look at all the games. I stuck to the system and it worked. I know it works that way-sticking to a system will eventually W (as u say), and mine can lose BIG 1, 2, or even 3 weeks in a row but NEVER 4. I was patient and it worked.

Had PHI covered last night I would have made in excess of $25,000 on close to $100 invested the whole day. Normally I win big in late December as I have a full grip on all the teams--but winning like this in early November is sheer luck.

Now, you can win multiple times in a season by adjusting or fading certain cappers with your system week-to-week but you run the risk of chasing yourself all the time thus a negative season. Winning once will break even on average; winning twice or more is gravy. GL the rest of the way!

[GFootsXtreme]

Lukester are you posting your plays? I would like to see yours each week if possible also...feel free to post in my thread if you don't want to start your own. I would like to learn more about what your system entails...did you follow the idea of fading a certain set of cappers?

Every system has losing weeks, it's almost impossible to avoid simply because there are always fluke weeks where the system doesn't account for what happens.

My theory I think is a very good one. This week...NE game would have gone over with a TD instead of a FG, and Giants had the game and blew it, so even the two losses don't feel all that bad.

There are three things to resolve in betting like I do.

1) Most bettors lose overall. Someone who is on a hot streak will almost invariably come back down. So by taking the top 25 from the contest every week, i am taking the "luckiest" ones every week at their peak waiting for them to lose. It also has added benefit of not being assigned to any specific cappers (no offense could be taken, i was in the top 25 for a while!). HOWEVER -- and this is the key -- SQUARES ALSO WIN.

2) There are sharp bettors who simply "Get it" and do well week to week and every season. They are elite cappers, and most are right here in our mall. I'm not talking about knowing Ace Rothstein...there are 4-5 right here that simply are "right" 60%+ of the time. AND, others may not be that good...but know when they see a true GOY or GOM and they win those 80% of the time they post them. So, they win the majority of the time...but they also LOSE.

3) There are times when both the square and the sharps are on the same side. Yesterday that occured with ARIZONA and CAROLINA. I am tempted to play the side both agree on, but don't have enough data or sense yet about whether that correlation really exists.

Summary: Many people believe the public always loses...mostly true. Many people believe sharps always win...mostly true. The key then, imo, is that there are points where the two match up perfectly -- where the public likes one side and the sharps like the other. For 3 weeks now, it's gone 5-1, 3-1 (posted) and 4-2. 12-4...and even better the sharps somehow knew to pick the dogs this week.

One last point. When i put together my charts...I do not know who is favored, i don't put the lines down, i don't know hardly anything about the matchups. and I don't want to! I want to win without having to learn to be a sharp...

keep it coming lukester i am very curious what you've been doing.