Good or bad bet?

[PunisherGambler]

Would it be stupid to try this teaser on Sunday?

Baltimore Ravens -10
Houston Texans +10
New York Jets -3½
New Orleans Saints +3
Miami Dolphins +4
New England Patriots -2
Atlanta Falcons +4

200 to win 1600

[Steel]

Originally Posted by PunisherGambler

Would it be stupid to try this teaser on Sunday?

Baltimore Ravens -10
Houston Texans +10
New York Jets -3½
New Orleans Saints +3
Miami Dolphins +4
New England Patriots -2
Atlanta Falcons +4

200 to win 1600

They call them teasers for a reason. Best of luck to you

[cuse_man]

My thoughts... Too many teams.. this is the NFL!

This is like a parlay really.. Personally with teasers a basic rule for me is to rarely ever lay more than 2, and actually try to keep it to -1 or less. Every now, and then I will make an exception though.

Either way... gl.

[LadyDawn]

best adavice i can give on teasers is to tease the team you think will win the game

sometimes though they are such huge favorites that even a 10 - 13 point teaser still wont work like patriots - 20.5 won by 7
so if ravens do thier usal play down to level of competion your screwed just like they did at home to Cardinals won by 3 points !

Ravens are one team that know they are huge chalks vs a non contending team thats why Ray lewis is sitting out they know they can rest injured starters in this game and still win by a td or more !

matter of fact every team in NFL will do this !

Sure they knew steelers would win that game and cannot drop a game any week they are neck n neck for div title !

[aztriman]

I think it's way too many teams as well. Here's the way I approach teasers:

1. Only put a team in a teaser that I've already bet money on at the non-teased spread.

2. The more teams in a teaser, the higher the varience on the bet. The higher the varience the more capital required in your bankroll, so the smaller the bet you should make, according to the Kelly criterion. So, keep the number of teams in a teaser to a minium (2 or 3 team) to reduce varience.

Best of luck, but I'd say based on probabilities, you only have about a 15% chance of hitting those games, regardless of how you handicap them.

[Bizluvs2win]

yeah i have noticed that over the years, Much of the time I won a teaser, I would have won the two teams anyway had I bet straight up.

And when I lost the teaser, not always but often it was just due to one bad pick not both meaning I could have at least gone 1-1 and broke even had I bet the teams straight up rather than 0-1.

With that said, I still do them with the criteria already mentioned. In summary:

The teams are strong favorites and the teaser pushes the line well under a TD. If a team has a 14 point or more spread to cover, I notice that the teaser does not often help them to cover, either they blow out their much weaker opponent or it's a relatively close game/back door cover like last week with Colts/Patriots and the teaser still loses.

however as in last week's GB/Giants match up, having teased the Packers would have assured a victory.
Never do more than 2 teams. That is sucker betting and should only do it if say you're up huge in a given month and you want to put $10 FOR FUN on let's say a 7 to 10 team teaser since it has a nice payout knowing there is very little probability you will win.

Totals can be very interesting. I have noticed that often when I miss a total, the teaser would have assured victory either way so that is a different discussion.

But always remember Vegas does not offer special types of plays and bets to lose money, the more gimmicky it is the more you have to really do your homework.

[Bizluvs2win]

Originally Posted by PunisherGambler

Would it be stupid to try this teaser on Sunday?

Baltimore Ravens -10
Houston Texans +10
New York Jets -3½
New Orleans Saints +3
Miami Dolphins +4
New England Patriots -2
Atlanta Falcons +4

200 to win 1600

so to actually answer your question YES it would be stupid to try that teaser unless you're up big on the year and even then I would only reccomend $20 to win $160 or better yet $10 to win $80. That way it's a small risk

[PunisherGambler]

Thanks a lot for the advice everyone, I'll play it smart and do only a few teams

[aztriman]

Originally Posted by PunisherGambler

Thanks a lot for the advice everyone, I'll play it smart and do only a few teams

Of those, I like these the best:

1. Saints
2. Texans
3. Jets

In fact, I have a nine point teaser on for the Jets and Texans. Also another on for the Jets and SD/BUF over. The nine-point two team teaser needs to be a winner 65% of the time to be profitable.

[kermit]

Great thread by all posters, great question, fantastic answers this is why I like this website so much, you guys rock

[LadyDawn]

If i was afiraid od spread not the team then yes i would tese it down say like a 10 point looked to be too much for the chalk at the time like maybe the dog was div who got hammered two games in a row or one game and rival won this is when you get large spreads !

Like cowboys - 4 1/2 1st game vs redskins i would tease that both ways and win both bets in combo with two other games or totals !

i hardly ever go past 4 team teser combos but it helps if you have chalk or dog thats too rich or just border line you add 6 points and incraese your win chances

like the games with the high % of tie numbers 3 - 7 - 10 those games i would tease !

[mrhotpicks2]

new orleans would worry me, they are a totally different team on the road bruh .... i know u like 3 team 10 pointers ....... i like this a little ....

Green Bay -2
Jets -1/2
Lions pick

[bookie nightmare]

I love teasing NFL. Usually on 7 pt with 2 teams tho. Tomorrow Im going big on a 10 pt 3 teamer. pays even money with my guy. $150 jets, patriots, packers. Lock it up! I'm going a little bigger b/c I've been hot and won lately. usually a 50-100 player