Has LT lost it?

[Gerk]

I hesitate to post this for the sake of starting a riot but thought it was pretty interesting. It was on ESPN and was written for more of a fantasy purpose, but does raise some interesting points



In 2007, 14 percent of LaDainian Tomlinson's 315 carries resulted in gains of 10 yards or more. Through four weeks of the 2008 campaign, that rate has plummeted to just 3.9 percent. If he were to maintain that rate over the rest of the year and you assume he gets the same 315 carries, the math yields a loss of 32 carries that go for at least 10 yards. Not only is that going to result in a massive loss of yardage; it also means a significantly smaller possibility that he's breaking a long touchdown run. When you consider that in 2007, Tomlinson had seven touchdowns from beyond the opponent's 10-yard line, you'll realize this decrease in big-play rushes is significant.


Do you want to chalk up Tomlinson's decline to injury or a tough schedule? The injury concern I'll buy, but I'll point out that rarely does a player recover from a turf toe injury without taking significant time off, so anticipating improvement this season is downright foolish.


I won't, however, be buying the tough schedule argument. So far he's played the Broncos, Jets and Raiders (generally a good defense, but LT has owned them throughout his career). Any objective observer would have to say he's had a favorable schedule so far.

[kurugby]

cant have a season like that all the time. hes still amazing.

[Dr. Jack]

I think it's similar to Larry Johnson and other really good backs. The wear and tear breaks you down a bit plus I think all teams focus on trying to slow him down.

IMO, He is still a top kind of running back (maybe not fantasy top back) but he won't be that guy that makes you say wow anymore. With that being said, he is still one of the best active and maybe one of the best ever

[Gerk]

Just for sake of comparison, He isn't in the Top 25 in the NFL right now for percentage of rushes of 10 yards or more

[Gerk]

Another comparison note, LT has 77 rushing attempts this year with 3 over 10 yards, Here are some other backs

Rudi Johnson, 4 over 10 yards in 21 attempts

Felix Jones, 5 over 10 yards in 18 attempts

Jerious Norwood, 8 over 10 yards in 34 attempts

Derrick Ward, 8 over 10 yards in 26 attempts

Edgerin James who many think is over the hill, 5 in 71 attempts

Julius Jones, 5 over 10 yards in 61 attempts

[Gerk]

Originally Posted by Dr. Jack

I think it's similar to Larry Johnson and other really good backs. The wear and tear breaks you down a bit plus I think all teams focus on trying to slow him down.

IMO, He is still a top kind of running back (maybe not fantasy top back) but he won't be that guy that makes you say wow anymore. With that being said, he is still one of the best active and maybe one of the best ever

Not trying to downgrade his Hall of Fame accomplishments at all, Agree that wear and tear has taken its toll on him

[wal66]

With all due respect to the backs you listed at the end of the day who do you want with the ball in his hands?

It's injuries and the fact he is the focal point of his team as well as the league ( as far as backs are concerned ) so there is naturally gonna be extra effort in shutting hime down.

I don't know but do you think ESPN researched if in previous seasons San Diego threw the ball down the field more. I'm not looking it up but that could be a factor as well.

Even if the case is he's lost a step I still want his commitment, determination and work ethics in my line-up.

Course from a fantasy standpoint which I don't play I guess it might be viewed differently.

[Steel]

He had a goood season last season but he looks slower and not as physical at this time. One of the best backs active or ever ? I disagree, the man hasn't had enough good season to rate in the top 10. I believe the kid has been slowed down due to injury. One thing you never know about is what shape he is in now. They hide injuries from other teams so that teams don't take shots at you. He is night and day compared to years past. I believe people have film on him and in time defensive coaches learn how to slow everyone down. To each their own on rating this back. He has changed so much I can't see him rating very high this season.

[dhunter]

coming off a knee injury and now a toe injury. at 80%....296yds and 4TDs isn't bad. that's on pace for 1184yds and 16TDs. might be lower than what we'd expect from him but his best is yet to come this year imo.

[Jahred]

he is terrible

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by Gerk

Not trying to downgrade his Hall of Fame accomplishments at all, Agree that wear and tear has taken its toll on him

Yes, I know. It is what it is. He is obviously not the same back he once was. I think defenses are forced to still respect him

[RanPicks]

Turf Toe, my brotha... it's a terrible thing... Seems like a P*ssy little injury, but if you had one, you know. Damn thing just hurts to walk - put any pressre on it - much less running and cutting full speed. Takes a good while to heal too - so that part of the article is spot on IMO. That IS the reason he's been slowed this year... (Cowboy fan here - so no homerism - just sympathy for the type of injury).

[BigFratDaddy]

basement in 2 pages.... i can see it comin


i think hes lost a mental edge ever since he cried

[smitch124]

Why does Sproles look so fast and nimble by comparison?

[Alworth]

Missing Hardwick and McNeill the first two weeks didn't help. Not surprisingly, LT had his best game last week with a healthy OLine.

I've always hesitated putting LT in the elite class of all time. I marvel at his consistency and production. He has a trademark stiff arm and doesn't cough up the ball. However, if you watch him every game, he ends up with a lot of 1-3 yard gains. You'll see the highlights on ESPN when he breaks through the line and jukes away for 40 yards. It's just not happening as often (I know, only 4 weeks in).

He's never been a speed back (i.e. AP) and can get caught from behind. I don't think he's a step slower, just not 100%. And he's not a power back. Similarly built, I remember seeing Emmitt Smith break many more would be tackles. Another great I saw albeit at the tail end of his career, Walter Payton could run over LBs. Michael Turner was a great complement. He hardly ever goes down on the first hit. And I loves me some MB III.

Having said all that, LT has to be in the top 10 RBs of all time. Barring a major set back, he'll be near the top in rushing yards and TDs. Add in the receiving stats, and he's a future HOFer. The clincher, of course, would be a championship ring or two.