A History Reminder

[bmravin]

For what it's worth:

The Steelers have lost 4 of their last 5 Conference Championship Games at home.


1994 - lost to San Diego
1997 - lost to Denver
2001 - lost to New England
2004 - lost to New England


They did beat Indy at home in 95, but went on to lose in the Super Bowl to Dallas.


In 2005 they beat Denver in Denver.

[cptkirk321]

And there has only been one 6th seed manage to win 3 games on the road and then win the Super Bowl and that was the Pittsburgh Steelers.

History goes both ways.

But at the end of the day this line should not be anywhere past -3 and yet it opened up -5 for Pittsburgh. Steelers win this game and cover.

[bmravin]

Originally Posted by cptkirk321

And there has only been one 6th seed manage to win 3 games on the road and then win the Super Bowl and that was the Pittsburgh Steelers.

History goes both ways.

But at the end of the day this line should not be anywhere past -3 and yet it opened up -5 for Pittsburgh. Steelers win this game and cover.

Your welcome to your own opinion, and while I may not agree I won't tell you to go start your own thread.

Peace and God Bless.

[cptkirk321]

Originally Posted by bmravin

Your welcome to your own opinion, and while I may not agree I won't tell you to go start your own thread.

Peace and God Bless.

Good to know, lol!!

But these are not opinions these are facts

And there has only been one 6th seed manage to win 3 games on the road and then win the Super Bowl and that was the Pittsburgh Steelers


But at the end of the day this line should not be anywhere past -3 and yet it opened up -5 for Pittsburgh


Unless you can give me a reason why it should of opened at -5. Two games decided by a grand total of 7 points, two games Ravens leading late in the 3rd quarter, two games one decided by OT and the other decided by a last minute drive(questionable td at that) and still this line opened up at -5

Sometimes the line just tells you all you need to know and in my opinion(and yes this is an opinion and not fact, lol!) this line is screaming out for Ravens money, and when that happens you go against it as quickly as humanly possible, lol!

[cptkirk321]

Originally Posted by cptkirk321

Good to know, lol!!

But these are not opinions these are facts

And there has only been one 6th seed manage to win 3 games on the road and then win the Super Bowl and that was the Pittsburgh Steelers


But at the end of the day this line should not be anywhere past -3 and yet it opened up -5 for Pittsburgh


Unless you can give me a reason why it should of opened at -5. Two games decided by a grand total of 7 points, two games Ravens leading late in the 3rd quarter, two games one decided by OT and the other decided by a last minute drive(questionable td at that) and still this line opened up at -5

Sometimes the line just tells you all you need to know and in my opinion(and yes this is an opinion and not fact, lol!) this line is screaming out for Ravens money, and when that happens you go against it as quickly as humanly possible, lol!

Also forgot that this is also just after being a +3 dog to the Titans(the number 1 seed in the conference) which they knocked off on the road and the line is 2 points higher in this game.

[bmravin]

I see your point, but can't Vegas be feeding into the "fatigue" of playing so many consecutive weeks without a bye. And the fact that people saw the beatdown the Chargers took @ Heinz. And the media hyping the Keystoner Super Bowl?

[cptkirk321]

Originally Posted by bmravin

I see your point, but can't Vegas be feeding into the "fatigue" of playing so many consecutive weeks without a bye. And the fact that people saw the beatdown the Chargers took @ Heinz. And the media hyping the Keystoner Super Bowl?

Philly playing their 3rd straight on the road and they are favoured. The year the Steelers pulled this off going into the Conference Championship game they were +3 dogs. Don't believe "fatigue" is a factor for the line being set where it is when we have examples of it not being a factor in the past or right now. As for beating SDiego I don't think that registered that highly when the lines were set since the Chargers were barely lucky to even be in that position needing a Denver collapse and then Indy just needing one first down to end that game.

[funkbunker2]

Originally Posted by cptkirk321

Also forgot that this is also just after being a +3 dog to the Titans(the number 1 seed in the conference) which they knocked off on the road and the line is 2 points higher in this game.

The ravens got outplayed sunday in most aspects of the game. They didn't play poorly, but Titans played better and lost. That's just how it works sometimes. But with that being said I think Ravens might capitalize on their good fortune and win sunday. Even though I feel the way I feel about last Sundays game, those guys have just played soundly, as a unit, for some time now. Steelers have shown that they can be beat at home this year and multiple teams have given them a fight.

Anyway, just my .02. GL to your crew this weekend.

[bmravin]

The Titans have an unbelievable O-Line. How many sacks did they give up this year? I'm not taking anything away from Pitt, but this is a division game with everything on the line. Ravens will give them all they can handle and this game will be a war. The 6 pts is a gift when these 2 teams are virtually equal. Home field is nice, but it's not going to rattle the players just people at home who have to endure all those yellow rags waving around.

[PHILLYBIRDS20]

dont know who is hyping a keystone SB noone in Philly is we r just trying to get there

[bmravin]

Originally Posted by PHILLYBIRDS20

dont know who is hyping a keystone SB noone in Philly is we r just trying to get there

Mike & Mike were bitching about how lame a Cards/Ravens SB would be this morning, or maybe it was some Steeler fan call-in

[cptkirk321]

Originally Posted by bmravin

The Titans have an unbelievable O-Line. How many sacks did they give up this year? I'm not taking anything away from Pitt, but this is a division game with everything on the line. Ravens will give them all they can handle and this game will be a war. The 6 pts is a gift when these 2 teams are virtually equal. Home field is nice, but it's not going to rattle the players just people at home who have to endure all those yellow rags waving around.

Exactly my point so please tell me how this line opened up with Pittsburgh as a 5 point fave? You just made my arguement for me

[QuadzillaXXX]

Originally Posted by PHILLYBIRDS20

dont know who is hyping a keystone SB noone in Philly is we r just trying to get there

word, one step at a time lol

[Slammer]

If the opening line of 5 was begging for Steeler money, it was a miscalculation, since the line moved very quickly to 6 and if the line seemed high, it's not too hard to figure out why, just look to this past weekend.

The Ravens won a game that we have been told they should not have won. The Steelers won a game that we have been told they dominated. Accordingly people are much higher on the Steelers.

All things being equal, more people would be on the Steelers anyway because they are a more popular team and have more fans in more places across the continent. But the perception of their most recent respective wins is night and day, so that adds to the discrepancy. Ravens looked ugly and Steelers had everything working for them and had all the bounces. So therefore your strange-looking line.

The number isn't made to appeal to the sophisticated gambler, it is made to appeal to the lowest common denominator, people who don't dig very deep, and who are easily influenced by what they have just seen and heard.

Far more attention is being paid to what just happened than to the two earlier matchups, those may as well be ancient history. They are very relevant to consider, but are not being given the attention they should.

So to assume that there is some kind of cryptic plan when one sees something one can't believe, no need to outsmart oneself. To say "this line is too high, therefore I am going to fade myself because this just can't be right and someone is trying to play me for a fool", that doesn't make much sense (to me, at least).

Do your own analysis and see if there are matchups that can be exploited, if opposing strengths match opposing weaknesses, etc, and see if there is an edge after all is said and done. If after doing that, you can rationalize either side, then do it. But only then.

[jaguilar]

lot of good points made on this thread. 65% of bets made so far are on Phi and Bal. Phi line went up,yet bal line went up against the majority of the bets.???