Hoping To Right The Ship This Afternoon With This Underdog

[vegasjack2]

Been taking an absolute BEATING over the past two weeks. Hopefully this afternoon I can right the ship.

Best Bets: 1-2
Top Plays: 3-5

New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Play: New York Jets +8
Rating: Best Bet

I think there is colossal value in backing the Jets behind an exaggerated line this afternoon. These two teams are on extreme opposite ends of the public opinion. The Patriots are coming off a bounce back win and cover. The Jets are coming off an embarrassment in prime time. The Patriots are leading the league in all around offense while the Jets rank among the worst. For the sportsbooks this is more a case of playing the perception, then playing the number.

I find it ludicrous that anyone can pass up this many points. Rarely does a huge rivalry game ever surpass the key number of seven. In this match-up we saw double digits at one point. The Jets were built to play the Patriots. They have a defense filled with talent. The only spot where they do not match-up well with the Patriots is on tight end Aaron Hernandez. I throw this fact out the window as Hernandez may not start, and if he does, he will be extremely limited.

There are few cities that have an influence on their sports teams. New York is easily the most influenced by home town pressure. All week long they have been feeling the heat, especially on the offensive side of things. Today we will see a quality offensive effort from the Jets. First of all, New England is horrible defensively. They lack any pass rush and struggle against the run. Sanchez is a quality quarterback when he has time. When Sanchez is making good decisions and being affective, the run game opens up. The run game of the Jets will be back to normal with Nick Mangold back at center. New York currently ranks last in my trench index in terms of O-Line production. With their usual starters back together, I look for them to score major points and move up the standings today.

Don’t let the line movement concern you. The dip in the number was purely based on the status of Mangold. There was no market buy back of any sort. The perception is keeping this a one sided affair for the books who have taken considerable New England action. No surprises here. Just like New Orleans this morning, there is a lot of money to be given back to the books. New Orleans hung on to cover against Jacksonville as the biggest mismatch in action for the books last Sunday. New England has covered three of four, all as large public favorites. There is a big bounty on the Pats today in regards to the number. Being the biggest game of the week and also the biggest handle for books, I am comfortable knowing I should be on the right side of the mean.

We have seen the bounce back factor in full force all season long. I expect to see it again as the Jets put forth the necessary offensive effort to keep pace with the Pats. I think this is a field goal game either way, but eight points is simply way to high.

[Cash Calloway]

Love the pick 28-24 New England