How do you approach betting final week with resting players?

[ConstantColorUpor]

We all saw what happened last week in the Jets game. Expect alot of players to get some well deserved rest this weekend so how do you approach those games? Avoid them entirely?

I saw Chargers have already said Rivers will start but back up Volek will get significant time, kinda of got me thinking about this and now Im stuck on some games I liked when I was looking at them.

What your thought?

[NightCap424]

Volek > Campbell

[ConstantColorUpor]

So in that particular situation you rate Chargers backup better than Washington starter so it wouldnt effect your decision if you liked SD from the start before hearing that?

[ConstantColorUpor]

Thus far:
Chargers saying Billy Volek will be getting significant playing time

Saints will start Mark Brunell and rest Drew Brees (not the smartest decision in my opinion based on their recent play)

[NightCap424]

Originally Posted by ConstantColorUpor

So in that particular situation you rate Chargers backup better than Washington starter so it wouldnt effect your decision if you liked SD from the start before hearing that?

Correct

[Lukester]

In a way it's like the preseason but in another way that is s far to the truth as Game 1 is to Game 16. In preseason the UNDER has better value but during the L3 years, Week 17 yielded more Overs:

2008-09 Wk 17: O/U = 9/7
2007-08 Wk 17: O/U = 10/6
2006-07 Wk 17: O/U = 9/7

(My other papers are in another filing cabinet but I'm pretty sure other seasons follow suit)

There is no right way or wrong way of approach. The more system you have at your disposal the more edges or percentage plays you'll find in each. Maybe next year I'll be able to share more of my stuff if I have time during the offseason to assemble the info in a comprehensible edge package.

Further, during those same three years:

2008-09 Wk 17: 13 Home Teams were Favs (Favs went 9-6-1 ATS)
2007-08 Wk 17: 9 Home Teams were Favs (Favs went 10-6 ATS)
2006-07 Wk 17: 13 Home Teams were Favs (Favs went 7-9 ATS

and check this out:

During the full regular season Home Teams W about let's say 60% of their games SU...during the L3 years Home Teams are a whopping 34-14 SU in all 3 Wk 17s

I'm very comfortable to play this week 17 but if your not and nobody's info in here turns your knob then wait til the playoffs.

There's more to say but my time is out.

Keep asking questions and you'll get answers from others.

GL if you play this week

[uva3021]

u the man lukester, the SU record says it all

teasers

[Lukester]

uva, correction--that SU record is 23-9 L2 years but 30-18 L3 years

[Romanowski]

when youre ready to gauge how much you want to risk on a side keep all those variables in mind

Hard to go large on any side, lot of guess work

playoffs soon though

[ConstantColorUpor]

Great info Lukester I appreciate it. Im just worried about wagering on a game where the team I bet has no intentions of remaining competitive for the entirty of the game, ie the Colts last week. I guess the safe bet is to wager only on games in which teams are still playing for something: playoff positioning, playoff spot, or even pride for the bottom of the barrel teams. Last thing I want to do is wager on the Pats this week and have Brady, Moss, Welker and half the starting defense out after the 1st series which was never indicated as the gameplan previously.

[Lukester]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

when youre ready to gauge how much you want to risk on a side keep all those variables in mind

Hard to go large on any side, lot of guess work

playoffs soon though

Variables--our brain is not fast enough at this present stage of evolution to process these fast enough in a week. Even in one million years it won't be. It will never be. Only the omnipotent mind can and we will never reach that state while a living entity. They say we only use 10% of our brain. That's BS. We don't even use 1 %. The computer has helped us with speed but we would never be fast enough to even upload info in a week to have our true picks in time for the coming week. The movie "Knowing" is close to this but that's all sci-fi fantasy. Variables are unlimited or near unlimited.

I've been looking into Wk 17 for almost two weeks now. I'm not any further ahead this morning than last week--just a bit because I set up walls and barriers, live in denial and expectancy, and came up to a realisation that my pics are more what I want to happen than what I think will happen. At least I know this--most people do the same but don't admit it.

I'm done "capping" for this week--er, I mean "fantasizing" and will follow my "hunches" as they are not affected by time. I'm comfortable with those W or L. Crazy, eh?

[Lukester]

Might also want to play the OVER in one half or the other (didn't check which one)

You should know who will get pulled out of the game and how early--this is available with a little search; it's also common sense--I don't even search this info, I lean on a team "knowing" this common sense. And you should cash hereon playing the secondhalf only or the game--especially if you play on three or more games you'll end up on the 50%+ on this--well, you should.

[jonnyblaze]

simple....

Last 13 games where a team had their playoff position locked up and had nothing to play for and were week 17 underdogs. In those games the favorites were 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS.

Go make $

[Lukester]

Originally Posted by jonnyblaze

simple....

Last 13 games where a team had their playoff position locked up and had nothing to play for and were week 17 underdogs. In those games the favorites were 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS.

Go make $

...and lock thread up now

[home dogs]

Originally Posted by jonnyblaze

simple....

Last 13 games where a team had their playoff position locked up and had nothing to play for and were week 17 underdogs. In those games the favorites were 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS.

Go make $

So.... the plays are:
Buffalo vs Indy Play Buffalo -9
Carolina vs NO Play Carolina -7
Ne vs Houston Play Houston -7
Cincy vs NYJ Play NYJ -9.5

My reasoning is this Indy locked in number one seed
NE and Cincy locked into home playoff game
NO locked into number one seed

does this look right?