HOW to handicap NFL games to give YOU the 75% - 80% EDGE every year !

[Vegaswiseguy]

I'm bored and thought i pass this on TO YOU !

1st off how i learned to use the schedules and leraning from MY losses a very expensive lesson $150,000 LOST over 7 years IN NFL years ago there was no offshore books i didnt even have a PC yet !

GOT so bad i stopped betting sports except base ball i was solid just reading the lines in the daily paper !

SO let me Explain HOW VEgas sets the spreads it's avery complicated system they use in the main sports books that puts out the spread 1st !

a TEAM of handicappers usally 3 or 5 MEN strictlty use POWER Ratings ,

STRENGTH of Schedule , home field , HEAD Coach, DEFENSE YDS Offensive Yards etc...

them factor in injuries then PUBLIC perception !

YES everyone VEGAS already KNOWS WHO YOU like to wager on thefavirite betting teams YOU are paying PRICE ON all spreads are juiced 1- 3 points MORE !

TRUST ME on THIs VEGAS is so way off at times it makes Me laugh SO hard i fall off my Chair !

BOTH Ways Totals and spreads !

ONE thing they never factor in is HUMAN EMOTIONAL edge they forget about it that these are REAL flesh and Blood HUMAN BEINGS playing a game were EMOTIONS run high higher than any other pro sport !

ONCE YOU get the HUMAN EMOTIONAL FACTOR correct Throw out the point spread call YOUR Bookie and smoke his bank roll for THE MAX HE allows YOU TO BET !

1st lets look at REVENGE happend this year already !

CHARGERS - 4 1/2 to PATRIOTS TRIPLE PLAYOFF revenge PATRIOTS stayed over on west coast also still didnt work far travel from SF to SD and still had to practice under strange conditions for PATS !

BAM CAHRGERS avenged those playoff losses handily !

WON by 20 points 30 - 10

OK now ya know cahrgers were happy they just felt like they won the playoff finals avenging 3 playoff losses to PATRIOTS right?

SO this poor team was sent to play far east at 1 pm at BILLS

and spread moved to a PCK from Chargers - 1 .5

BOOM reality set in YOU still stink YOUR defnse is non existent and BILLS cruised to HUGE WIN 23 - 14 !

HUMAN EMOTION WILL WIN YOU Money 100% of THE TIME !

in EVERY PRO SPORT COLLEGE also !

I bet YOU MILLION Dollars TEMPLE Crashes this saturday off a DOG UPSET WIN vs OHIO YUP they are sandwhiched away at NAVY with KENT ST up next a MAC DIV game !

YUP a 7 point DOG !

any way EVERY WEEK YOU MUST study EACH game like YOUR studying FOR a FINALS EXAM at College !

1st look at who they beat lately !

TEAMS that open up a ton of POINTS over losing teams like LIONS , CINCY , 49ers TEXANS DO not eran any points in MY eyes when facing a team LIKE Steelers , Eagles, Titans , Bears, BUCCANEERS , !

JOE PUBLIC has short memory they believe that what they SAW last week is same thing they will get this WEEK !

NO TEAM is as GOOD as IT was last WEEK or BAD as YOU SAW !

EXAMPLE : BRONCOS got disaambled at Patriots 41-7 subsunked losing every QUATER

SO now they are 3 ponit favorite at HOME vs Miami

well will DOLPHINS still OWN broncos ATS ? YUP DOLPHINS rae 100% ats WHEN DENVER SHOWS UP !

HOME or at DENVER !

MIAMI is happy very happy avenging 4 st losse TO DIV rival BILLS !

and the struggled for 4 qtrs losing by 9 points 16 - 7 then came back in second half to win 25- 16 !

thats was a WAR not a FOOTBALL game !

DENVER however is already in sad shpe a VERY bad low ranked defense 31st in league !

AND NO BYE week this time to recover !

At this time i cannot get a hnadle on either side !

WILL PHINS crash after avenging 4 st losses to RIVAL ?

or CONTINUE BILL Parcells ball RUN DEFNSE and stay on TOP !

TRY to THINK of Teams emtional state HERE DENVER was Embarrsed beaten sensless 41 - 7 they have to upright thier ship !

DOLPHINS are HAPPY they know their history vs BRONCOS they have Beaten this team many times !

even when ELWAY was QB DOLPHINS were MONEY as a DOG !

anay way lets look at another system to use this is caled THe Therory OF PROFILE PERFORMANCE Correction !

every week YOU make a chart on every NFL team ATS

using a standard size tablet with a LINE drawn across middle this YOUR 0 LINE YOU will use each line as a 5 point grade UP is plus down is NEGATIVE !

I GO up to plus 40 points OVER the SPREAD and MINUS 40 points ATS results !

EXAMPLE : Team A favored by 3 points LOSSES the Game by 10 points YOU draw a LINE from last WEEK and DOT it at END of MINUS 13 ponits !

THE DOG winner of course goes UP to PLUS 13 points from previous week !

weell after 5 weeks YOU will have what looks like an EKG Chart on all 32 teams !

try TO draw graph here

+20
+15 |
| |
| |
|_-7 +3 +9|_________________________
|
- 5

OK the 0 line shows the spreads - 7 pts +3 pts +9

the totals at end of lines show game results this team is up n down every other week in consistent !

NOW FOR when YOU know to double YOUR wager !

WHEN you have two teams hedaed in opposite directions DOUBLE YOUR wager !

SAY one team was + 10 then fell to +2 ATS thats an 8 point drop on PERFORMNCE profile !

THE opponent however climbed up from - 15 to - 5 an gain of 10 !

dosent matter if its DIV game or NON div game HOME or AWAY the one headed UP will cross over THE 0 line ATS this week the falling team will fall below the line ATS !


ANOTHER thing YOU mjust have in YOUR possesion every year is the MARC LAWRENCE PLAY BOOK
Cost $9.95 + tax at your local newstand or magaizine book store OR order online have it shipped priorty US mial in 3 days !

A wealth of information on all 32 NFL teams showing ten years of ATS results also college teams !

NOW you can develop systems thinking of them on every team !

22 years in all NFL games 65% SYSTEM BET AGAINST anay team that came off a S/U DOG Win and is favored in next weeks game (EXCLUDE BYE WEEKS )

THIS is calleed dong a FULL 360 turnaround !

SAY a TEAM won as a 7 point DOG then they are -3 points next week !

THIS is 10 point spread swing FROM + 7 to - 3

WHEN YOU have a PLUS # vs a NEG # YOU add them together to get diffence from the 0 line

looks like this on chart

(+7)-------0---(- 3 )


NOW how to handicap the teams to see IF YOU GOT aCORRECT spread !

TAKE any two teams i will use week 7 results

OK heres one CHIEFS +9 at HOME VS Titans

I was thinking Titans looking ahaed to DIV Rival COLTS and Wouldnt COVER this HUGE spread !

YOU take points scored and alloweed for BOTH teams and subratct one from other EACH GAME bioth sides !

KC

PF 65 PA 131

- 66 dived by 5 games played

they are minus -13.2 pts per game

TITANS

PF 115 PA 56
+59
divide by 6 games

they are + 9.8 pts PG

ok you have negative NUMBER vs a POS #

add them together toget diff between two teams

13.2 + 9.8 = 23 points

SUBTRACT the 9.8 from 13.2

KC is - 3.4 points

add the spread in

they go to +5.6 pts

subratct the 9 points from titans +9.8 PG

THEY reamin +.8 points

5.6 - .8 = +4.8

so spread is off by .8 points 5.6 - 4.8



OK we have a mismatch here

however give more weight to titans because they played 6 games KC only played 5

and a quick look at KC offense and Defense ranking plus the QB merry go round they are ON switching QB's what 3 times alaredy ? beat up injured on both sides of ball !

a BAD HC vs a TOP NOTCH HC
NO team Chemistry at all on KC

simply put here BAD TEAMS find ways to LOSE GOOD TEAMS FIND WAYS TO WIN !

YOU have far better OFFENSE and DEFNSE and # 1 starter QB in COLLINS vs a virtual piece of junk 3rd strainger loser QB with NO running game and porus defense !

Titans won 34 -10

OK this is BETTER

Raiders +3 at home VS the JETS who couldnt COVER the huge 13 pt spraed at HOME VS CINCY

a 1-4 team vs 3-2 team only 3 points ???

SUCKER BET !

YOU already SAW JETS GET smoked at Chagers as a 9 point dog at SD so you have same DIV and same travel to WEST Coast comparisons

RAIDERS
PF 81 PA 135

-10.8 PPG
+ 3 pts
- 7.8 pts

JETS
PF 141 PA 130
+2.2 PPG
- 3 pts
- .8 pts

diff between two teams was

Raiders - 8.6 points

NOW it Raiders
- 7 pts a full 1.6 points off !

SOMEHOW NEW HC got this team rallied

THEY FINALLY PLAYED wire to wire and they pulled off the upset in OT

16 - 13

ahhh this shows it better

PACKERS VS COLTS

GB

PF 160 PA 145
+2.5 PPG
+1 pt
+3.5

COLTS

PF 114 PA 97
+3.4PPG
- 1 pt
+2.4 pts

real differnce was COLTS +.9 pts

NOW the PACKERS are

+1.1 PTS

COLTS havent won UP at GB in years

PACKERS have won each TIME

COLTS misng BOB SANDERS and other players on OFFENSE limping IN !

KABOOM

PACKERS won dominating

34 - 14

this was esay to spot COLTS won at HOME 31 - 3 over Ravens so they exploded to large PLUS ATS WIN

they didnt NEED 31 points to WIN THE game they emptied the OFFENSE out bolted up to +23.5 on the graph FROM a PLUs 1 win at rival texans

NOW after GB they sunk to minus 23.5 BUT now at TITANS as a 4 dog UP to - 6 points they lost BY 10 points I know i know titans gave up late TD with only 2 minutes left in game !
BUT it COUNTS !

SO look for PONIES to BOUNCE UP next game VS patriots as a DOG i'm SURE !

PATRIOTS didnt COVER VS Rams they dropped to - 1.5 pts !

STILL here we have two teams with multiple injuires

on both sides of BALL !

COLTS want revenge for loss at HOME last year !

LETS SEE if THEY can pull it off !

THTAS it NOW YOU will win 75% of all nfl wagers each year based on no more than 4 games per week !

[Vegaswiseguy]

EXCUSE MY typos i'm a great speller just bad typist !

[Ricky Tan]

Thanks for the insight

[Vegaswiseguy]

KC

PF 65 PA 131

- 66 dived by 5 games played

they are minus -13.2 pts per game

TITANS

PF 115 PA 56
+59
divide by 6 games

they are + 9.8 pts PG

ok you have negative NUMBER vs a POS #

add them together toget diff between two teams

13.2 + 9.8 = 23 points <LOOK at THIS NOW look at GAME results below
SUBTRACT the 9.8 from 13.2

KC is - 3.4 points

add the spread in

they go to +5.6 pts

subratct the 9 points from titans +9.8 PG

THEY reamin +.8 points

5.6 - .8 = +4.8

so spread is off by .8 points 5.6 - 4.8


Titans won 34 -10

TITANS WON by 24 points shows you that MATH Works i showed differnce between two teams of 23 points WOW !

[tomek30]

interesting read but i believe Vegas already averages the human emotion or revenge factors into their lines, they know that the public knows this angle too. Also one problem with the points scored/allowed thing is that you could have a decent 5-2 team, which won its 5 games by combined 15 points but lost the 2 by 50, with this logic they are a weak -5.0 points per game team. I honestly doubt a player will win 75% of his bets just by using the emotion factor and these math technics.

[slowpoke]

could you post your picks for this week?

dam! you put alot of work into this.

do you also rate your plays or play them all equally?

gl

[Fat Pockets]

Excellent post!!! I have used similar techniques in the past when I had more time to handicap games. It is very usefull when using it with added tools.

I agree with tomek30 though. This tool alone isnt enough imo....not in the long run. I think alone it can be very rushy so to speak. And the way this year has been going it may be a good tool for it....however, long term it would need more capping to complete it successfully in the long run.

Great read. Enjoyed it and will definately have a whirl with it if I can find the time. Im sure many of those new to the forum or sports betting will find this very useful.

By the way....Marc Lawrance's books ARE an excellent tool. I especially love his Over/ Under history book.

Thanks for the good read.

[Vegaswiseguy]

yes slow poke i do rate my plays

when i have system in place that i know will create the same results every year i make it a 20* play

one went down but the team still won the game s/u so it's now 100% S/U and 95% ATS it happend when texans let lions kick a 52 yd fg in late 4th quater to win by 7 spread was 9.5 LIONS had no shot to win game no time outs left 2:30 left on clock !

TOMEK
interesting read but i believe Vegas already averages the human emotion or revenge factors into their lines, they know that the public knows this angle too!

Im Sorry YOU are WRONG here odds makers do not factor in let downs they only know how to crunch numbers !

they do know when a team will not play a meaning less game at end of year like teams out of playoffs will simply go through motions and get out of there those lines are adjusted heavily 3 - 6 points more !

I have 3 books for all 3 pro sports with each one showing when a system is in effct !

i call it THE IF system !

IF this happens this week play aginst that team week after regradless of spread !

wish i could post info to my site you can get them free each book sells for $150

[The Nac]

I'm actually impressed that you guys were able to read through all of that horrible spelling. Jesus it gave me a headache and I had to stop!

[The Frozen Pond]

Originally Posted by slowpoke

could you post your picks for this week?

dam! you put alot of work into this.

do you also rate your plays or play them all equally?

gl

Agreed. Let's see some plays.

[T-Bird01]

one went down but the team still won the game s/u so it's now 100% S/U and 95% ATS it happend when texans let lions kick a 52 yd fg in late 4th quater to win by 7 spread was 9.5 LIONS had no shot to win game no time outs left 2:30 left on clock !

And you really should not have lost that game. The Texans got a pick with just over 2 minutes left up by 10, and the cornerback instead of going down, tried to run it back and got the ball stripped from him. That was the reason for that late Lions FG.