Go Back   Sports Handicapping Forum > Sports Picks > NFL Football

NFL Football NFL Handicapping - Post your NFL picks, talk NFL betting, anything NFL.

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 09-08-2011, 05:15 PM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Iowa
Posts: 910
Rewards: 991
And I'm back --- Thursday Night Opener

3* --- Green bay -4.5



After breaking down film of both teams, Scouts Inc. offers 10 things to watch in this week's Saints-Packers matchup.


1. Deal with the hype: After an unprecedented offseason, the regular season is finally here. It is opening night, and walking into Green Bay to face the Super Bowl champions is not an enviable task for any team. The Saints will have to weather the high emotions of their environment early on. This game features the past two Super Bowl winners -- and everyone involved should come extremely prepared. Giving the edge for coaching was a very difficult decision.

2. Pound the rock: To help deal with the hype and emotion -- while also setting a physical tone to this great matchup -- the Saints need to control the football on the ground. Although New Orleans has the best set of guards in the NFL, the rest of its offensive line is pretty ordinary. But the Saints restructured their backfield this offseason, adding Darren Sproles and first-round pick Mark Ingram. Expect Ingram to get the bulk of the carries with his downhill power-running style. The Packers like to use a lot of 2-4-5 defensive personnel and should do so plenty to have five defensive backs on the field against Drew Brees' passing attack. But that could leave Green Bay vulnerable to the power run game. And the Packers' defensive line depth is suspect.

3. Account for Finley: Jermichael Finley is one of the most dangerous pass-catchers in the league today. Too big and physical to be handled by most cornerbacks and too agile and explosive to stay covered by linebackers, Finley is a real handful to plan against. And Green Bay will move him all over the formation. He is also deadly near the goal line. This is an especially big problem for the Saints' defense, as their linebackers are liabilities in coverage, as is SS Roman Harper. Tight ends gave this defense a tough time last year. Finley could be poised for a huge opening night.

4. Pressure Rodgers: Finding weaknesses in Aaron Rodgers' game right now is difficult. But if he does have one, it could be his pension for holding the ball a little too long to make a play -- although he has improved considerably in this capacity during the past year. The Saints simply cannot allow this gunslinger to sit back and throw uncontested. The Packers' offensive line was suspect with its protection this preseason. New Orleans has a wealth of new options up front and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams loves to bring added pressure, which is especially important because New Orleans will be without Will Smith (suspension).

5. Matchup to watch: Saints RT Zach Strief vs. Packers OLB Clay Matthews: The Saints recently released former starting RT Jon Stinchcomb to get Strief on the field. This will be baptism by fire for the first-year starter, though, as Matthews is one of the toughest tests in the game today off the edge. Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers also will move his best pass-rusher around the formation, so accounting for him in New Orleans' protection scheme will be extra-important.

6. Decipher the Saints' defense: Williams is a very creative and aggressive defensive playcaller. New Orleans blitzed more than any other team in 2010. Williams has a lot of moving parts to his defense and can be quite challenging for opposing signal-callers. The Packers run a version of the West Coast offense but also incorporate a lot of deep downfield throws in the passing game. They use a wide array of offensive personnel and formations. And Rodgers has become very mentally equipped to orchestrate the entire show. But this defense will be mentally challenging.

7. Account for Graham: Much like the problems that Finley will cause the Saints' defense, TE Jimmy Graham could give Green Bay all it can handle. Graham has tremendous height and rare movement skills for someone of his stature. A raw rookie last season, Graham looks to be quickly fulfilling his immense potential. He can run a wide array of routes from the tree and is superb in the red zone. And unlike most tight ends, Graham can really stretch the seam and challenge a defense deep. He will be a key component of this offense.

8. Don't forget about the run: With the Packers' high-powered passing attack, it will be very tempting to put Rodgers into the shotgun and spread the field with an array of weaponry. But balance is important, too. Of course, this could open things up for play-action. We should see as many as three backs in the backfield to go with many empty sets and everything in between. It also would be a mistake to discount what Rodgers brings as a runner.

9. Handle the Saints' DT rotation: With the addition of run-stuffer Aubrayo Franklin and penetrating pass-rusher Shaun Rogers, New Orleans now has an impressive stable of defensive tackles with a wide range of varying skill sets when you also include Sedrick Ellis into the equation. On the interior, Green Bay is very solid at center with Scott Wells and at right guard with Josh Sitton. But the Packers are breaking in a new starter at left guard, T.J. Lang, and that could be a problem.

10. Matchup to watch: Packers WR Greg Jennings vs. Saints CB Jabari Greer: After Finley went down with injury last season, it could be argued that Jennings was the best wide receiver in football. Greer is rarely mentioned among the best players at his respective position, but he deserves to be. This is just another great matchup in what should prove to be a tremendous game.


Prediction
New Orleans 27
Green Bay 33
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 09-08-2011, 05:18 PM
Your 2012 NBA champs
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Florida
Posts: 59,314
Rewards: 1,363
Looks good. Good luck this season muckslinger
__________________
Jack
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 09-08-2011, 05:19 PM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 97
Rewards: 307
Bol!
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 09-08-2011, 05:30 PM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: living in Omaha, Ne
Posts: 33,997
Rewards: 9,887
gl muck
__________________
Co Good Guy of the Year Award 2010
2nd Place 2010 MLB 2nd half Contest
3rd Place 2010 Capper of The Year
Poster of the Month Award Winner
2009 Co Champ World Series Contest
January 2012 Play of the Day winner
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 09-08-2011, 11:05 PM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Iowa
Posts: 910
Rewards: 991
Great way to start the season
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:09 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2012, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.