Interesting article I found on QB's

[rjb1816]

From Pro Football Reference...I'm a numbers guy so I find it pretty interesting and not just because it's named after Rivers.

PI Finds: The Rivers Index » Pro-football-reference.com blog » Blog Archive

[rjb1816]

The Rivers Index, Playoffs Edition (2001-2010) » Pro-football-reference.com blog » Blog Archive

and then the playoff edition....particularly would like to highlight this portion
His opponent, Mark Sanchez, is a budding Rivers Index phenom in his own right. Sanchez sports an .800 record as his team's leading passer in the playoffs, despite playing like a .618 QB.

[rjb1816]

basically expanding on what I have said in the other threads defending Rivers. It is a TEAM GAME and there is only so much a qb can do to influence whether a team wins or loses. They play a big role but sometimes you need people to not **** up around you to win games...something these numbers have shown Rivers suffers from a lot

[Sweetleaf22]

and I get all the shit for being a homer,,,,,,,spread the love guys

[Dr. Jack]

Isnt this first article criticizing Rivers performance? I read it quickly on phone so maybe read it wrong. Isn't it saying he wins less games then he should?

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by Sweetleaf22

and I get all the shit for being a homer,,,,,,,spread the love guys

He's got his share. Believe me. Only two fan posters I've considered opening Chargers & Steelers sub forum in the fan forum. Lol

Most people have some homer. Some are just excessive

[rjb1816]

Originally Posted by Dr. Jack

Isnt this first article criticizing Rivers performance? I read it quickly on phone so maybe read it wrong. Isn't it saying he wins less games then he should?

It's saying that based on his passing performances, the team should have won 27.7 games but only won 24. So it's really an indictment on the players around him causing the team to win less than they actually should

[Dr. Jack]

gotcha! Will read more later. I like those things as well

[rjb1816]

Originally Posted by Sweetleaf22

and I get all the shit for being a homer,,,,,,,spread the love guys

it's not a homer thread...it was to emphasize my point. The article looks at all qbs not just Rivers. He just happens to be the poster boy for bad luck

[rjb1816]

Originally Posted by Dr. Jack

gotcha! Will read more later. I like those things as well

yea would be tough to look at on a phone but it's worth a read as it looks at all the qbs in the nfl

[uva3021]

worst article in history

[Chris46139]

wow that is harsh

[rjb1816]

uva is just mad because he didnt think of it first

[ZaQ]

Let me start by saying I have always hated the concept of "QB wins" as a stat. Now, please correct me if I'm wrong here, but if I understand this right, he is using YPA as a predictor for wins?? Think about the absurdity of that for a second. Any QB facing a prevent defense is in a situation where he's likely going to lose ("preventing a win" jokes aside) but also rack up a ton of YPA. Further, consider that an eight yard completion on 3rd and 10 is a great way QBs inflate YPA and QB rating, despite the fact the play was an unsuccessful endeavor.

Personally, I think a much better predictor would be Football Outsiders' DVOA or DYAR--far more telling QB efficiency stats than simply YPA.

[rjb1816]

Originally Posted by ZaQ

Let me start by saying I have always hated the concept of "QB wins" as a stat. Now, please correct me if I'm wrong here, but if I understand this right, he is using YPA as a predictor for wins?? Think about the absurdity of that for a second. Any QB facing a prevent defense is in a situation where he's likely going to lose ("preventing a win" jokes aside) but also rack up a ton of YPA. Further, consider that an eight yard completion on 3rd and 10 is a great way QBs inflate YPA and QB rating, despite the fact the play was an unsuccessful endeavor.

Personally, I think a much better predictor would be Football Outsiders' DVOA or DYAR--far more telling QB efficiency stats than simply YPA.

I think some of the examples you cite are true but in the sample size of 3 seasons, of every game, the linear regression model eliminates most of those and therefore is a more accurate predictor