Interesting SB match up futures wager strategy

[Bizluvs2win]

I noticed this today on my on line book.

They have the futures wager with possible SB match ups.

I saw that teh Packers have the following future odds against what I think are the most likely AFC contenders. Obviously, I am assuming that the Packers will win the NFC Championship. If anyone thinks there is a prayer for another team, I'd be curious to hear your line of reasoning.

Packers vs Steelers: +600
Packers vs Ravens: +450
Packers vs Patriots +250

so using simple math of putting $10 on each of these bets, here is how that would be played out:

If Steelers are AFC Champions: win $40 (bet wins $60 and then subtract $20 on the other two lost bets)
If Ravens are AFC champs: win $25 (win $45 minus $20 on other two lost bets)
IF Pats are AFC Champs: win $5 ( win $25 minus $20 on other two lost bets)

Yes I realize that there are no "sure things" and I could just end up losing the entire $30 if the Packers do not make it (which again I just cannot see how they do not win here unless Rodgers goes down) OR one of those three AFC contenders does not make it.

But otherwise, as you see, the worst situation is that I win $5 with the Patriots. (again I would be placing higher bets just using lower amounts for sake of making it easier to follow)

BUT I just do not see though how one of those AFC teams does not make it. DO the Raiders, Titans Texans, Jets or god forbid, the Denver "Tebows" really have a chance?

Ha ha. Maybe I need to put a safety bet of $5 on the Tebows vs the Packers which is currently not even listed as an option. That way I still win if the anointed one gets to the big game and worse case scenario, I break even if it turns out to be the Pats.

[vegasbet03]

Beware you will be broke if the packer lost. Defense will prevail in the championship game. I don't think the pack do have a best defense althought they do have a great QB and offense. Best to you whatever you do.

[Bizluvs2win]

Originally Posted by vegasbet03

Beware you will be broke if the packer lost. Defense will prevail in the championship game. I don't think the pack do have a best defense althought they do have a great QB and offense. Best to you whatever you do.

I agree and that to me is the only real risky part of this wager. Again though I really cannot think of a team who could go into Lambeau in January and beat the Packers right now. I have carefully considered every scenario and the only one that concerns me is that they won't rest the starters in the final game or two (since they have a rare chance to go undefeated) and someone important like Rodgers gets hurt.

Otherwise, who could go into GB and win? The Cow girls, the Giants? Maybe New Orleans? I just don't see it. I even thought of SF because perhaps they have a good enough defense to make it a close game but even then I think The Packers have just too much fire power. 49'ers are a great team but not quite a dominant force just yet.

[LadyDawn]

This is one wacky playoff year i posted it before packers are frauds because they are way below the chmpionship criteria in YRDS Per Game more than all opponents !

they are only plus 8 yards per game you need to be plus 35 yards per game for all 16 games in season

also they must be plus in TO's which they are at + 15 but they just are playing in the red almost every game

49ers are worse on a soft schedule they are minus 27 yards per game

Giants also and cowboys sainst and falcons will not be at the bowl either

who can beat packers in GB ?

only team that has the defense to do it is the NY giants

but wow how can a possible 9 - 7 team win up there thats what i see with giants upcoming schedule !

o no wait a main sorry redskins Jets and dallas all at home oooooo they want pay back to skins for week 1 loss

I would also include the Teaxns in the superbowl matchup as long as they get the Veteran QB's ready !

[resteasy]

Giants could beat them possible, dallas I don't believe can they are not a good road team at all and romo is a choke artist.
Saints could beat them certainly.
So it's risky and for the payout probably not worth it.

[sLim901]

i know everyone thinks the packers are unstoppable this year, with good reason, but do not underestimate the saints when the playoffs roll around

[HoosierDaddy23]

why risk 30$ to win $5?