Investigating The Most Important Stat In NFL Betting

[vegasjack2]

Investigating The Most Important Stat In NFL Betting

I recently got an email from an oddsmaker who I have worked with and now swap information with. He passed along a statistic to me that he has recently begun tracking. He claims that this is the single most important stat in determining who wins week to week in the NFL.

What is the stat? Passing Yards? Rushing Yards? Turnover Ratio?

No, no and no.

The oddsmaker in discussion has found that the single most important stat in predicting the winning team in the NFL is Pass Yards Per Attempt.

Disappointed?

I know it may not seem like the most exciting stat, and some of you may have never heard about it before. For those of you who have heard about it, you more then likely have not paid attention to it. When I received his email, I admit, I was very sceptical. I did not believe the results he was boasting, but sure enough after researching myself, I found out that this is amazingly accurate in predicting the winning team.

So far this season, the team who has more Pass Yards Per Attempt has gone…

38-10 (.791%) ATS +$2,700 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME)
42-6 (.875%) SU +$4,125 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME)

Pretty incredible stuff. So far though, these numbers are well below pace of last season.

410-102 (.798%) ATS +$29,780 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME)
500-12 (.976%) SU +$64,450 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME)

I have yet to back track another year as I was unable to find accurate moneylines for the games in question. I must admit that these numbers are absolutely mind blowing. Now I have been questioning how this could possibly be. For one, the NFL has become a very pass happy league. More passers are on pace to break all time records then ever before. In the first three weeks there have been numerous passing records shattered. The NFL has somewhat turned into a CFL pass first type league. Since the style of play is so vastly different in present day NFL, it would make sense that the team gaining more yards per pass would have an easier time moving the ball down the field and a easier time scoring the football.

Looking at the wins so far this season in which this stat has reigned true is truly amazing to me. Buffalo (+300) over New England in Week Three. Tennessee (+210) over Baltimore in Week Two. New York Giants (+350) over Philadelphia in Week Three. How about the biggest difference in Yards Per Pass Attempt? Detroit +8.2 YPPA against Kansas City in Week Two. Sure enough, this was the biggest blow-out so far this season (Detroit 48 Kansas City 3).

Now obviously there is no way to simply bet your money pregame on the team which will have a better YPPA, but this is a factor to definitely think about next time your placing a bet. Here is a list of the games this week involving some of the best YPPA to date this season.

Top Five:

#1 New England (9.9) -4 at. #17 Oakland (7.0)
#2 Dallas (8.7) -1 vs. #7 Detroit (8.1)
#3 Green Bay -12.5 (8.6) vs. #25 Denver (5.7)
#4 Houston -3.5 (8.6) vs. #5 Pittsburgh (8.4)

Upset Pick:

Arizona +1 vs. New York. Arizona and New York have identical YPPA so far this season at 7.9. However, at home Arizona averages 10.9 (1st Overall) while New York goes for just 6.8 on the road (22nd overall). Factor this in with the massive let down situation vs. the get up game for Arizona, you may be in luck with the Cardinals this weekend.

Biggest Difference:

Green Bay -12.5 vs. Denver. Green Bay holds the biggest advantage this week over an opponent. Not only is Green Bay 23 spots higher in the YPPA standings, but they hold the biggest difference in YPPA (3.0). At home this season Green Bay has averaged 8.5 YPPA. Denver on the road has gone for just 4.4 a difference of 4.1 YPPA. Don’t be surprised if the Packers run up the scoreboard against the woeful Broncos this weekend.

I am not basing my wagers solely on this by any means, but this is definitely something to keep an eye on and maybe eventually something to factor into your weekly handicapping.

-VJ

[bigtom]

Tony Romo is I think #4 all time...

[bigtom]

Originally Posted by bigtom

Tony Romo is I think #4 all time...

Highest among actives

[Romanowski]

yes this is a very important stat, but it wont show up if you back test any further, because its a reflection of the new passing NFL

Its mentioned in Mathletics, the book

Equally as important is defensive pass efficiency

[Gobirds]

excelent info, thanks

[Kramer]

This is an interesting read..


Advanced NFL Stats: Adjusting Adjusted Yards Per Attempt

I agree with Rome,
plus you have to account for a team
behind 17-0 half time is dift from \
a team ahead 17-0 ,
etc ...

(garbage vs quality time)

[fbcapper]

Great info & analysis