Its homer time

[Dr. Jack]

I know a lot of people like the Niners in this spot but I love Miami -6. In recent years I have faded Miami more than I have played them

They will be focused with the playoffs in site and their last home game of the year vs. a West Coast team coming back East again (2nd time in 3 weeks). Miami can win the AFC East by winning out and they know this is the last chance to do it at home and it’s a must win game.

The Niners have played well but besides the Jets they got Rams on the road and a Buffalo team that looks like they have packed it in. Besides the road win in Buffalo and the first game of the year in Seattle – they have struggled on the road (2-4 overall).

Even if Gore does play – he will not be 100% and will have trouble running on the Dolphins. That should make things a little tough for Shaun Hill throwing the ball. The key to their recent success has been balanced attack, Miami will make them one dimensional. Gore is huge to the 49ers and without him – they are a different team. Besides running the ball he is a big threat out of the backfield and has the second most receptions on the Niners.

Miami is the best in the league when it comes to not turning the ball over, Niners are one of the worst.

Pennington is playing like an MVP and Ronnie and Ricky should be able to run on the Niners. I like Miami to pull away and win this one pretty good.

Miami 27
San Fran 13

[huscroft6]

Originally Posted by Dr. Jack

I know a lot of people like the Niners in this spot but I love Miami -6. In recent years I have faded Miami more than I have played them

They will be focused with the playoffs in site and their last home game of the year vs. a West Coast team coming back East again (2nd time in 3 weeks). Miami can win the AFC East by winning out and they know this is the last chance to do it at home and it’s a must win game.

The Niners have played well but besides the Jets they got Rams on the road and a Buffalo team that looks like they have packed it in. Besides the road win in Buffalo and the first game of the year in Seattle – they have struggled on the road (2-4 overall).

Even if Gore does play – he will not be 100% and will have trouble running on the Dolphins. That should make things a little tough for Shaun Hill throwing the ball. The key to their recent success has been balanced attack, Miami will make them one dimensional. Gore is huge to the 49ers and without him – they are a different team. Besides running the ball he is a big threat out of the backfield and has the second most receptions on the Niners.

Miami is the best in the league when it comes to not turning the ball over, Niners are one of the worst.

Pennington is playing like an MVP and Ronnie and Ricky should be able to run on the Niners. I like Miami to pull away and win this one pretty good.

Miami 27
San Fran 13

Hope so, GL Jack!! Dustin off my Raiders and Bills jerseys as well for tommorow. BTW latest on Gore is he will not be active

[be47320]

j/k...gl jack

[Pap]

jack after fading the insanely high spreads given to the dolphins the past month or so this is one of my biggest plays this weekend. time to cash in on pennington and co.

[steel69]

Agree 100% esp with Gore out or playing still hurting.
BOL Jack

[Bobtheicon]

I don't like it.

[cuse_man]

gl jack!! cash it

[Jahred]

I like "its Hammer Time" much better

gl with the play I like it

[Bisket]

tough game because i see dolphins winning afc east but 49ers have only one loss ATS with shaun hill dating back to last year.

gl

[Gobbler's Knob]

Jack this is also a revenge game for our Dolphins from the 1984 Superbowl.........bastards!!

[Chris46139]

Originally Posted by Bobtheicon

I don't like it.

Good luck Doc, I'll be rolling with you tomorrow for the same reasons

[jaguilar]

would have to agree, gl!

[Funtus]

Good call Dr. Jack, that's a long road trip for the niners.

[Broncos77]

I've been saying it all week. This is my largest play of the year. Your explanation is great as well. I also examined the line and why Vegas set this line at 6.5. I feel public perception has played a large roll with this game. After all, SF just beat NYJ at home and Miami, while covering last week, have been less than impressive with their wins. First, the SF win home vs NYJ isn't impressive. NYJ lost AT OAKLAND. Their loss at SF is consistent with them not traveling west very well. I feel Vegas made this line 6.5 because they know they will get a lot of SF backers to buy that half point up to 7, thus charging the extra juice. The public is barely favoring Miami by about 55/45. I'd be willing to bet most of the SF bettors have bought up to 7, even after the line dropped to 6. A Miami cover, even with a slight majority of the public on them, will result in a huge profit for Vegas due to buying up. Vegas could have just as easily made this line 7.5, gotten the same percentage of players on SF and Miami (as Miami players would then buy down), but they know they are more likely to make that extra money by forcing SF backers to buy up. So after all this, IMO, Vegas is in a good spot here, know Miami is the better team, and are primed for a big win with a Miami cover.

[fat-freddie]

Key words Jack, a "Must Win" game for the fish Let's cash this bad boy

Good luck man,


Fats.............................................. ...............