I've pretty much lost faith in the whole reverse line movement / public %'s theories

[reggie02]

I don't know what Vegas is doing, but if these public % numbers are accurate, they are getting destroyed by not moving these lines. The Seattle and Jacksonville games were massive losers for Vegas today. This has been happening alot of late with Seattle against Philly and Arizona @ Seattle a few weeks ago and Houston last week. I'm just wondering how that works, is there actually sharps holding the lines steady or is Vegas really makiing bets on these games. It just doesn't seem to make sense.

Any thoughts on what is happening here?

Reg

[ghoopin]

That % is not the amount of money bet on each side, it is the % of bets placed. If one side is short sided on bets, that should tell you that they have larger sized bets placed on the short side. Books don't make money on sides, they want even money on each side and collect the juice from the losing wagers.

[LLXC]

It's hard to get ACCURATE betting $ on which side...

[Vegaswiseguy]

only the books know where the money is coming in from and mostly squares are betting the wrong side most of the time 65% wrong

SQUARES that BET these pathetic teams today went down in flames

BEARS , EAGLES , Jaguars, Ravens, COLTS , Falcons,

Steelers , Rams LOL ... Panthers --- Redskins

Vikings ... CHIEFS ... DOLPHINS

wow 13 teams lost YOUR money favorites and DOGS


4 wiining favs were BUCS PACKERS Giants Titans

[Steel]

Its over rated just pick the winner.

[redskinsnut]

You took the words out of my mouth. Tennessee and Arizona on paper seemed to be too easy laying only a FG against substantially inferior opponents so I went the other way. It is not supposed to be that easy. I know the first time I bet like a square and take a team in a seemingly "easy money" spot I will get my shirt handed to me. I am at a loss.

[actionsportscentral]

I think too many of us are on this reverse theory now....... maybe it's made just as many squares on both sides now.

[white_tiger]

This will be another week that most regs bettor lost if they on the sharp side. Sometime the % on 1 team but some on other side chase lost after last week and place much bigger bet on those seem to be trap line. They keep thinking that wow last week vegas lost on these game they will lost again this week.
Like Ten -2.5, Sea -3 Dal -2.... They keep thinking that if Vegas losing these game again will not happen. So last week that same guy down 20* on 3* bet. This week he think he'll be on Vegas side and believe that he'll get it back this week. Instead of betting 3* he now place 10* each on Sea and Jac and we all know what happen. To 8:30game he think again WTF? Maybe Vegas trap again and get it all back at the same time tonight on the skin. He play 30* on skin try to get it back believe Vegas again on his side.
now 1 guy 30* on skin compare to 1* on Dal on Joe guy.... % show 67% on Dal but $$$$ much bigger on Skin.....
Now after this week happen no one seem to believe those % ect. Reverse line move anymore then they will start working again. End up those Regs will give up or already lose his bank roll while Joe will slowly give it back to Vegas at the end. Now who win????4

WT.

[Steel]

Originally Posted by white_tiger

This will be another week that most regs bettor lost if they on the sharp side.
WT.

I laugh every time I read a comment like this. Regular bettor ? Sharp side ? These are all things gamblers use to make them feel like they know what they are doing. Again, cap the games yourself and don't worry about who is on what side and what % is on what number. The winner is the one with the best team with the best coaches most of the time. So smart money or dumb money its all bull$hit. Just pick the winners and stop using these stupid terms such as regs bettor.

[BigdaddyQH]

It isnot the number of people that counts. It is the MONEY that counts, and no reputable book is going to tell you this. It is like all of those posts that said that the ref's saved the books. I know of one casino book that had it nearly 50-50 by game time, so it did not really matter whether the Chargers or Steelers won. The sooner that people realize that books are in business to make money, NOT gamble, the sooner these people will stop wasting their time and money trying to beat the system.

[pats3peat]

Originally Posted by Steel

I laugh every time I read a comment like this. Regular bettor ? Sharp side ? These are all things gamblers use to make them feel like they know what they are doing. Again, cap the games yourself and don't worry about who is on what side and what % is on what number. The winner is the one with the best team with the best coaches most of the time. So smart money or dumb money its all bull$hit. Just pick the winners and stop using these stupid terms such as regs bettor.

a-freaking-greed. consider as many things as u can but PICK YOUR OWN STUFF

[RICKS PICKS]

Real big players look for the weak lines at the beginning of the week.Thats why some of the lines move right away.Then they know if the line keeps moving they try and hit the middle.Alot of times they know when they are going to move a line.This is how the real big players play alot of their plays.We get to figure it out after that.It is hard to track what is public or real genuine sharp money or big player money or public money.Sometimes its just line adjustment by the books.I think if you just get caught up with trying to figure it out and dont cap or use your gut.You might win a few but you wont win in the long run.Thats why (not trying to going in to my lecture mode again)but money management is so damn important.Most of what I see is alot of good cappers trying to figure it out and win for awhile.Then they start with all the high unit bets on multiple goy,gom,g of whatever.When they lose it becomes this issue of why is the public winning etc.Any player good ,great or bad is going to go on great ,good or bad runs.They key is to be consistant so you can survive them.