Jack's NFL Championship plays

Dr. Jack · #1 01-21-2011, 01:13 PM

Well went 3-1 on the games last week but added a dumb teaser to go 3-2. Made a small profit. 1-0 in week 1 playoffs & 14-3 NFL pod during regular season. Still playing small on both of these games this weekend.

Green Bay @ Chicago

I don't really have much to say about either of these games but I will be fading both teams on their 3rd straight road game. It seems like popular opinion in the NFL is very short term memory and Green Bay is the hot flavor about now. But I think that Chicago is rested, at home and knows the Packers as well as anyone.

Green Bay is a good team but they are a bit one dimensional and I am not sure either the Eagles or the Falcons play a physical defense like the Bears do. Rodgers hasn't really been hit so he's been untouchable. If the Bears can get to him and hit him hard a few times and I think they will, I think the Bears have a good chance to win this game or at least keep it within a field goal. The Packers are hot but they are not invincible as shown by the 7-3 loss in Detroit and also by the 10-3 home win over the Bears in the season finale when the Packers had everything to play for and the Bears had nothing to play for. The Bears played them even in Green Bay for most of that game and now they get them at home, with the Packers on 3rd straight road game, with no one outside Chicago giving them much of a chance.

I give them a good chance to win and I think if Packers win, they do by 3.

1/8* Bears +3.5

Ny Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Also fading the 3rd straight road game by the Jets here. Not only is this the 3rd straight road game, it's the 5th road game in the last 6 games and 6th road game in the last 8 games. That's a lot of travel. They beat both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, two personal games for the Jets and now they play a team that gets a gift to play at home against a team that beat them and have revenge in mind. Last week the Jets had that added "revenge" motivation, this week it's the Steelers.

In the previous game when the Jets won, Mark Sanchez played well but there were some things I don't think will happen again.

1. Troy P is playing in this one and even less than 100% is much different for that Steelers defense when he's in there.

2. The Steelers have one of the best, if not the best rushing defense in football. In the last game LT and Shonn Greene ran for 89 yards on only 23 carries. I think the Steelers run defense will step up and play much better in this game.

3. Brad Smith took the opening kickoff for a touchdown in this game and gave the Jets a great confidence early. Even if Smith plays, I don't think he's 100% and won't be that explosive factor on special teams.

4. The Jets special teams was not only Brad Smith this day. Steve Weatherfood had a monster game and repeatedly punted them deep in Steeler territory including the one late in the game right before Jets got a late safety in that game. The guy was perfect that day. I'm thinking less than perfect in this one. The Steelers were at the 10 at the end of that game so they would have tied it if not for the safety.

Both the Colts and Patriots have limited running games and it allows the defense to gamble more and focus on stopping the passing game. Against the Steelers, they'll need to worry about the run and they'll also need to worry about Big Ben moving out of the pocket (Brady and Manning don't) where he is as dangerous as anyone.

Once that Steeler defense stops the Jets running game I do believe they'll become one dimensional and will force Mark Sanchez in to at least one big turnover.

Steelers pull away in this one!

1/8* Steelers -3.5