Jack's NFL Divisional Round Opinions

[Dr. Jack]

Finished regular season 14-3 on NFL POD. Only played a small 1/8th teaser which won last week. Will play my all opinions for 1/8th of a unit.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

Been going back and forth on this game all week long. Pittsburgh at home is usually a solid play, Baltimore looks like they could make a serious run.

When these two teams play, it almost is always a close game and I just don't see any reason why that changes today. 6 out of the last 7 times these two teams have played and the road team has kept it within 3. Flacco seems to make throws and move the chains whenever they need. Baltimore can run the ball, they have a good leader at QB, a decent wide receiver group and a smash mouth defense that comes to play when it matters.

I just can't see laying points in this game and you might even be able to get +3.5 for a decent price a little later in the day.

Opinion - 1/8th* Baltimore +3 +100

Green Bay @ Atlanta

Another tough game as the Packers look like they could make a serious run but I do think Atlanta is getting little respect and they are one of the best home teams in football. The last time they played Atlanta won 20-17 on a last second field goal. I think the difference in this game could be a lot more points. Both teams are capable of quick strike scoring, Aaron Rodgers is playing as well as a quarterback can play.

The Falcons defense is suspect at times. The Bengals, Buccaneers and Ravens all put at least 21 points on them in the Dome and none of them have the quick strike offense that Green Bay brings.

I just can't play either side in this game, thing I will take my chances on the over.

Opinion - 1/8th* GB/ATL over 43.5

Seattle @ Chicago

Well Seattle is a great story but let's face it, I am not sure Seattle capable of doing this on the road in a hostile environment against a well rested team looking for revenge.

Here is what Seattle did on the road the last three games

lost @ Tampa 38-15
lost @ San Francisco 40-21
lost @ New Orleans 34-19

They did beat Arizona on the road 36-18 in mid November and also beat Chicago in Chicago 23-20 in October. That's it. The other 3 road games were also blowouts.

lost @ Oakland 33-3
lost @ St. Louis 20-3
lost @ Denver 31-14

Actually since the Bears win you can make a case that Seattle not only didn't beat a good team after that game but they didn't even compete up until their big win over the Saints.

Make no mistake the Saints game was their Super Bowl. They were given 0 chances to win, they were playing at home, the Saints were banged up and Matt Hasselbeck is a seasoned veteran who is capable when the situation is right.

Seattle is 3-14 ATS last 17 on the road.

Well it sound like Chicago could be a POD but I just can't comfortably lay 10 points with a team like the Bears. While their defense and special teams is as good as anyone, their offense still has questions. If Jay Cutler plays like he has most of the year and avoids throwing in double and triple coverage, the Bears should win big. Last 3 games at home for Chicago were

beat Jets 38-34
lost New England 36-7
beat Philadelphia 31-26

Bottom line is the Bears are capable and I woudn't touch the Seahawks but Seattle has nothing to lose and all the pressure is on the Bears.

Opinion - 1/8th* Chicago -10

New York Jets @ New England

Boy would I love to see the Patriots just duplicate that 45-3 shallacking of Rex Ryan and them stinking Jets. I am trying to keep an open mind in this one.

One thing about Rex Ryan and the Jets is besides doing a shit load of talking, they do back it up a lot of the time. When I doubt them, they seem to hang around and make enough plays to either win or keep it close.

I mean really there is not much that can be said about this game that hasn't been said. I think being division rivals in the AFC East, these teams know each other inside and out and as much as I would love to see a blowout, I just get that feeling the Jets will hang in there and this will be a better game than people think. The Jets are capable of running the ball on the Patriots and if Sanchez can make a couple of throws this one gets interesting. Remember the Patriots defense is very overrated and at some point will be exposed a little for that. I think the question is can the Jets stop the Patriots offense? I don't think they can stop them but wouldn't not surprise me if they slowed them down. Pats really have blown everyone out for a while now with the exception of the Packers so how will they respond if the Jets keep it close?

So part of me will be hoping Pats just mruder this team but can't kick that feeling it will be close.

Opinion - 1/8th* Ny Jets +8.5


Last week I played my first teaser of the year just to have some action so I was trying to find another one to fool around with. I just play 6 point two teamers for even money (+100). I probably will play this teaser for 1/8th of a unit as well but haven't as of yet.

Opinion - 1/8th* Chicago -4/Atlanta +5.5



Anyway didn't really offer much except a lot of rambling on above so don't put much credence in to them. I really prefer a big NFL card than playing just to play!

Good luck everyone!

[MR.FUGI]

appreciate the insight...BOL

[g_rock65]

BOL Dr. Jack! Been on your coattails for most of the year and will be again this weekend! Keep rolling!

[JRSPATS]

I agree with most of what you say, I just don't see where the Pats defense is overrated if anything I think they're underrated. They've let up their share of points this year, everyone that speaks about them speaks of their great offense and their average defense. The one thing their defense does well is come up with a big play whenever it's needed. btw great year on your pod this year.

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by g_rock65

BOL Dr. Jack! Been on your coattails for most of the year and will be again this weekend! Keep rolling!

Careful though. As I stated, I am playing really just to play. During the season I doubt I would play an of these. But thanks for kind words

Thanks fugi @ GL everyone. Enjoy the games. It sucks football is almost over.

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by JRSPATS

I agree with most of what you say, I just don't see where the Pats defense is overrated if anything I think they're underrated. They've let up their share of points this year, everyone that speaks about them speaks of their great offense and their average defense. The one thing their defense does well is come up with a big play whenever it's needed. btw great year on your pod this year.

Yes I agree with you that they are a big play defense. I am not really knocking them, I mean they are a complete football team. BUT statistically they were the 12th overall team in total defense in the AFC out of 16 teams.

[Keith]

gl Dr J

[kartell]

Always helpful to hear your insight, Dr. J.
GL with all of your plays!

[MCP313]

GL Jack

Not sure how a 14-2 can be overrated but these guys are it. Gave up 30 to Buffalo at home to a team that had been having trouble scoring all season long, got bailed out the following week vs a Miami team that kept shooting itself in the foot all night long on MNF. Got lucky after their bye week after the Ravens had a meltdown in the 4q after dominating most of that game. Got outperformed in every aspect of the game the very next week in SD except on the scoreboard and then came home to face a Minny team who shouldve beaten them if they didnt keep botching up scoring drives from inside the 5. Week after that got destroyed by a very poor Cleveland team. Next week scored 39 on the Steelers only to give up 26 and near 500 yards on defense and then barely got a by a beat up Colts team 31-28 when Manning threw some untimely picks. I will say this after getting outplayed the 1st half on Thanksgiving by the Lions something seemed to click with these guys starting in that 2nd half and thats when they went on their run of destroying teams for their next 5.5 games except for a game where vs the Packers w/o Rodgers they probably shouldve lost that as well.

Personally I think the Pats are on par with the Jets if you add in every aspect of the game....maybe slightly better and yes I know they beat them 45-3. If I cared so much about the results of 1 game then I guess I can make a case for Cleveland being the best team. To make a long story short I think the Pats are very vulnerable and nowhere near deserving of a 9 pt line vs any of these playoff teams. Only way Pats win IMO is if they win the turnover battle by 2+ and if they lose that battle by even 1 I think the Jets can win easily outright. Sorry for the long winded response, prolly shouldve started my own thread with this.....I guess you can tell I like the Jets alot.

[Lukester]

I haven't read from anyone that "Playoffs are a diff animal" yet. Seattle DD dog is a gift in that respect.

As for teasers...I've studied quite a few in the first years I've been here--and there's more often than not that one of the picks doesn't comply--Chi in this case. If hey win it will be by a FG,,,and that's a Big IFFFF.

GL this weekend, Jack!

[JunkyardDog47]

I like the under in the Pack-Falcons game. These teams combined for 37 points last time they faced each other, and I do not see that changing. With both teams emphasizing the running game to start out, I do not think that you will see a lot of scoring early.

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by MtrCtyPimp

GL Jack

Not sure how a 14-2 can be overrated but these guys are it. Gave up 30 to Buffalo at home to a team that had been having trouble scoring all season long, got bailed out the following week vs a Miami team that kept shooting itself in the foot all night long on MNF. Got lucky after their bye week after the Ravens had a meltdown in the 4q after dominating most of that game. Got outperformed in every aspect of the game the very next week in SD except on the scoreboard and then came home to face a Minny team who shouldve beaten them if they didnt keep botching up scoring drives from inside the 5. Week after that got destroyed by a very poor Cleveland team. Next week scored 39 on the Steelers only to give up 26 and near 500 yards on defense and then barely got a by a beat up Colts team 31-28 when Manning threw some untimely picks. I will say this after getting outplayed the 1st half on Thanksgiving by the Lions something seemed to click with these guys starting in that 2nd half and thats when they went on their run of destroying teams for their next 5.5 games except for a game where vs the Packers w/o Rodgers they probably shouldve lost that as well.

Personally I think the Pats are on par with the Jets if you add in every aspect of the game....maybe slightly better and yes I know they beat them 45-3. If I cared so much about the results of 1 game then I guess I can make a case for Cleveland being the best team. To make a long story short I think the Pats are very vulnerable and nowhere near deserving of a 9 pt line vs any of these playoff teams. Only way Pats win IMO is if they win the turnover battle by 2+ and if they lose that battle by even 1 I think the Jets can win easily outright. Sorry for the long winded response, prolly shouldve started my own thread with this.....I guess you can tell I like the Jets alot.

Good stuff Pimp. Actually agree with a lot of what you've said here

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by Lukester

I haven't read from anyone that "Playoffs are a diff animal" yet. Seattle DD dog is a gift in that respect.

As for teasers...I've studied quite a few in the first years I've been here--and there's more often than not that one of the picks doesn't comply--Chi in this case. If hey win it will be by a FG,,,and that's a Big IFFFF.

GL this weekend, Jack!

See with the Bears, I worry about a backdoor or a just miss cover. Can't see it being a 3 point game. Seattle would have to be perfect. JMO. But you right about teasers for most part I agree.

Originally Posted by JunkyardDog47

I like the under in the Pack-Falcons game. These teams combined for 37 points last time they faced each other, and I do not see that changing. With both teams emphasizing the running game to start out, I do not think that you will see a lot of scoring early.

Not always same next time around. While yeah they may try to run, it's playoff time & points is what's getting you to NFC championship. Thinking some quick strike scores in this one from either side. But you might be right, I'm just fooling around today.

[ZoomVT]

good luck jack.

[Victor]

Good luck Dr. Jack!