JC's NFL Thread (RLM plays + betting with or against the publc system)

[JC]

Hey guys, this thread was very sucessful last year during the regular season. Here's the link to last year's thread.
NFL Public Fade Tracking Thread of Dogs 52% or Higher
I'm trying to devolpe a system to single out good games to bet on. I hope it's going to help along with your own capping skills. This worked nicely in NFL last year. I will run this thread thru the entire 2011/12 regular season and see what it brings us. The system does not work well in the Preseason or Playoffs. I will only be playing the RLM on Sunday.

Note a few things.

All this works best on Sunday games only

Note: I only use pregame numbers

1. I don't bet all the games the system calls out for just the ones that match up with what I capped.
2. I will post the systems RLM plays and my own personal plays seperate.
3. I will be only using pregame numbers so you will see different percentages from other sites.
4. Due to posting early the percentages and lines may change before gametime. I recommend you wait as close to gametime before betting if you like a play.
5. Bet at your own risk because we all know no system is perfect.
6. Most of my personal bigger games will be posted during the late games (4:00pm) If my systems are on during the early games then I could have a strong play during the late games. If not no plays.
7. I will also be betting against premium tout plays that's on a dog and the public is 70% or greater on the farovite. Hard to explain but it works.
9. I will also be making plays based souly on public percentage.


GL this season and let's make some cash. Football = Money

[aztriman]

How do you get the premium touts picks to fade, and why is that a good strategy? I don't ever look for picks from touts, but you pay for their picks to fade them? Thanks.

[JC]

Originally Posted by aztriman

How do you get the premium touts picks to fade, and why is that a good strategy? I don't ever look for picks from touts, but you pay for their picks to fade them? Thanks.

I know some where to get most of them free. It's just one part of the strategy. Most of my plays will be off RLM and public percentage's and if it matches up with what I capped it will be a play for me.

[aztriman]

Got it. I've never understand the fade a capper idea. Either you have a call on a game or you don't; picking against a capper doesn't seem to be a strategy to me.

[buli]

bol JC...have a good season.

[JR7302001]

Originally Posted by aztriman

Got it. I've never understand the fade a capper idea. Either you have a call on a game or you don't; picking against a capper doesn't seem to be a strategy to me.

Idk, sometimes fading a tout is easier than capping your own games!

[JC]

Originally Posted by aztriman

Got it. I've never understand the fade a capper idea. Either you have a call on a game or you don't; picking against a capper doesn't seem to be a strategy to me.

[JC]

Originally Posted by buli

bol JC...have a good season.

Thanks buli

[aztriman]

Originally Posted by JR7302001

Idk, sometimes fading a tout is easier than capping your own games!

"Easier" being the key word!

If a cappers reasoning is flawed, and that makes a lightbulb go off in your head that says, "I totally disagree with this guy" then I can see it. But, to build a strategy against a guy on the belief that "this guy sucks" seems incomplete to me.

Most of the stuff I read, I do to help clarify my own thinking towards a situation. I like to read various touts, not to follow them, I don't care who they pick, but I like to read and hear people's take so I can form my own opinion. I've now beaten this horse to death.

[JC]

Originally Posted by aztriman

"Easier" being the key word!

If a cappers reasoning is flawed, and that makes a lightbulb go off in your head that says, "I totally disagree with this guy" then I can see it. But, to build a strategy against a guy on the belief that "this guy sucks" seems incomplete to me.

Most of the stuff I read, I do to help clarify my own thinking towards a situation. I like to read various touts, not to follow them, I don't care who they pick, but I like to read and hear people's take so I can form my own opinion. I've now beaten this horse to death.

OK guys this thread is not about touts, its just a system I started last year to go along with the games I cap. If they match up its a play for me. I had a nice season following it. The RLM were the strongest. Let's work together and make some cash.

[JC]

9/11/11 Play

Not going to jump to fast into week 1 like I did in college. Only going with one today. Like Philly to blow the rams out today. GL guys

3 unit
Philly -3.5 (-105)

YTD Results
0-0
0%
0.00 units

[JC]

Originally Posted by JC

9/11/11 Play

Not going to jump to fast into week 1 like I did in college. Only going with one today. Like Philly to blow the rams out today. GL guys

3 unit
Philly -3.5 (-105)

YTD Results
0-0
0%
0.00 units

Easy win with Philly

YTD Results
1-0
100%
+3.00 units

[JC]

9/18/11 Plays

Just one small RLM play so far

1 unit RLM plays
Jacksonville +9 (-105)

YTD Results
1-0
100%
+3.00 units

[Victor]

Good luck JC!

[JC]

Originally Posted by JC

9/18/11 Plays

Just one small RLM play so far

1 unit RLM plays
Jacksonville +9 (-105)

YTD Results
1-0
100%
+3.00 units

9/18/11 Final Card

Baltimore is for real this year.

3 units
Baltimore -5.5 (-102)

1 unit RLM plays
Jacksonville +9 (-105)

YTD Results
1-0
100%
+3.00 units