Kansas City Chiefs -- BEST BET

[MasterCapper]

I've been looking over all of the Bodog listings for the past week or so, and have decided to make the Chiefs my best bet for several reasons. In case you missed it, the over/under on "wins" for the Chiefs is 6. I think they will get there comfortably, and will be the surprise team in the NFL.

First off, it's important to note that there were two different Chiefs teams last year. There was the (1) Chiefs with Larry Johnson, and there was the (2) Chiefs without Larry Johnson.

With LJ, the Chiefs were 4-3 to open the season. This included a 30-16 win at San Diego. It also included four road games during this stretch -- so the schedule was not easy. They were the only team in the NFL to open the year with road games in three of the first four weeks.

Of course, the Chiefs lost LJ to a season-ending injury the following week, and ended up losing their final nine games to close the season. They named Brodie Croyle the starting QB at midseason and promptly began the youth movement. Herm wanted to find out what he had with his young players. He gave many of them opportunities. In other words, wins and losses became irrelevant.

The Chiefs finished 2-6 last season at Arrowhead, their worst home record in more than three decades. The Chiefs have averaged nearly six wins at home since 1989, the year Carl Peterson took over as GM. Against division opponents, they have traditionally dominated at Arrowhead. Up until last year, the Broncos and Raiders had failed to defeat the Chiefs at Arrowhead for more than five years. In fact, the Raiders hadn't done it since opening week in 2001. As a general rule, the Chiefs split home/away with Denver year after year, and do the same with the Chargers. Since 1995, they have split with Oakland or swept them every single year.

Of the three divisional opponents, it's a safe bet that the Chiefs will win a minimum of 3 of 6 games overall.

The last time the Chiefs had back-to-back seasons of 6 wins or fewer: 1987-88. There could be many reasons for this. The Chiefs, after all, were consistently good throughout the 1990s under Marty Schottenheimer. But ... you've got to believe the Arrowhead Advantage they've owned over the past 20 years has benefited them tremendously.

The Chiefs last year finished 14th in total defense and 13th in points allowed. This is despite an offense that produced little yards and left them on the field way too long. The Chiefs rarely -- if ever -- played with a lead. This is even more testament to how well the defensive unit played.

The Chiefs have played competitively on the road under Herm Edwards. His conservative style has, if nothing else, given them a decent chance to win. If you remember, Brodie Croyle's first career start came against the Indianapolis Colts at the RCA Dome. He stayed poised offensively while the Chiefs limited Peyton & Co. to just 13 points. It took a last-second FG for the Colts to win, 13-10.

Eight of KC's 12 losses came by 10 points or less. Three of them were by five points or less.

Schedule analysis

Red denotes win.
Blue denotes loss.
Green denotes toss-up game

09/07/08 at New England Patriots
09/14/08 Oakland Raiders
09/21/08 at Atlanta Falcons
09/28/08 Denver Broncos
10/05/08 at Carolina Panthers
10/12/08 Bye
10/19/08 Tennessee Titans
10/26/08 at New York Jets
11/02/08 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
11/09/08 at San Diego Chargers
11/16/08 New Orleans Saints
11/23/08 Buffalo Bills
11/30/08 at Oakland Raiders
12/07/08 at Denver Broncos
12/14/08 San Diego Chargers
12/21/08 Miami Dolphins
12/28/08 at Cincinnati Bengals

Overall, I think the Chiefs are in better shape than people think. With Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson, the Chiefs have an offensive trio that can inflict some damage on opposing teams. In addition, Brodie Croyle showed flashes and will finally get his shot. All indications are that he is picking up the new offense (under coordinator Chan Gailey) well, and that he likes the simplicity of it. And again, don't underestimate how pleased he is to have Larry Johnson back.

On top of that, there was only one major departure from last year's defensive unit that finished in the top half of the league -- Ty Law. But KC replaced him with a promising young second-rounder, CB Brandon Flowers from Virginia Tech. And don't forget about DT Glenn Dorsey, either.

Anyways ... I think the Chiefs might sneak up on some teams this year. I'm curious to hear all of your thoughts on this.

[Dr. Jack]

Good post MC.

I am not a Chiefs fan and hate Herm Edwards but they are a very good home team and I am tempted to toss a buck or two on this.

I don't think Denver sweeps them, and I think they should beat a very overrated Tampa team at home. Most of the others in red, I agree as well

Nice job

[BigdaddyQH]

I think that as long as Peterson and Edwards are there, the Chiefs are always a bad wager. These two thrive on a history which is at best, mediocre, and at worst, utter failure. First, just who is going to be their QB? Whoever it is, he will be unproven. Second, they are going to get their rookies a lot of playing time, and that means a lot of mental errors. The Chiefs batle the Raiders for last in a very bad conference tis year. You will find out early, when they go to Atlanta.

[NFLMAN]

I agree that Herm Edwards is not a good coach. Motivational peaks and valleys were something that not only his players were indulged in. However, Edwards was always ready for a battle of the minds with Belichick, his teams were always ready for this game too. It was usually against the opponent before Belichick that Edwards and his players weren't prepared for.

Some points of analysis for this game:

KC will play rookies. However, rookies are never better focused on any game more than their first. You are more likely to see those mental errors after week one. History has proven this, over and over again.

New England's defense will take a relentless pounding from the Chiefs running game that will eventually wear on them in this game. Edwards is always very conservative in his play calling.

Kansas City's offensive line will be healthy, something they did not have much of last year. It's hard to judge how good this offense might be with a healthy offensive line because we haven't seen it yet.

Kansas City's corners will be hitting those speedy wide-outs before they make their route. They are well known for that.

The Patsie's offensive line had problem last February with the Giant's pass rush, we will see if they have corrected the issue. It will be put to the test here.

[MasterCapper]

Originally Posted by NFLMAN

I agree that Herm Edwards is not a good coach. Motivational peaks and valleys were something that not only his players were indulged in. However, Edwards was always ready for a battle of the minds with Belichick, his teams were always ready for this game too. It was usually against the opponent before Belichick that Edwards and his players weren't prepared for.

Some points of analysis for this game:

KC will play rookies. However, rookies are never better focused on any game more than their first. You are more likely to see those mental errors after week one. History has proven this, over and over again.

New England's defense will take a relentless pounding from the Chiefs running game that will eventually wear on them in this game. Edwards is always very conservative in his play calling.

Kansas City's offensive line will be healthy, something they did not have much of last year. It's hard to judge how good this offense might be with a healthy offensive line because we haven't seen it yet.

Kansas City's corners will be hitting those speedy wide-outs before they make their route. They are well known for that.

The Patsie's offensive line had problem last February with the Giant's pass rush, we will see if they have corrected the issue. It will be put to the test here.

Hey, man ... the discussion here is whether the Chiefs will get to six wins, not whether or not they'll win their road opener in New England

[BIGDEAL]

I live in KS and we get KC on the tube weekly. Bad bet IMO. I'm sure you would agree that QB is who wins or loses most games? Croyle has a weak arm and has not proven himself to be a leader or a winner since entering the NFL. Teams will stop the run and force Croyle to throw. Simply put he won't get it done, very little help except for Gonzalez.
They may win 6 if they get a few breaks, but I see a 5-11 for them.