Lang on the Giants

[Mindsink]

I'm sorry, but I have a hard time believing that a game's outcome will be decided by who bets on which side or which percentage of the public is on a certain side.

[The Frozen Pond]

Herm Edwards picking the Pats


Fuk yes, there is a God

[ParrotHead]

It was a good run New York

[Mindsink]

Originally Posted by ParrotHead

It was a good run New York

You can say that after their ticker tape parade down times square next week.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Doesn't Lang have an impressive SB record?

[Romanowski]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf:4858144

Doesn't Lang have an impressive SB record?

undocumented

[Mastamind]

Mr. Brandon Lang's Analysis of the 2012 Super Bowl:

Note:

17-2-2 speaks for itself.

I have only lost this game twice in over 20 years in this business. Nobody can touch that. Nobody can match that. Nobody even comes close to that.

And there isn't a single ounce of doubt when this game ends Sunday night it will go to 18-2-2. That is how much I love this game.

It's the 2nd largest of my career off the 1,000 Dime Move on the Steelers moneyline over the Seahawks.

I have had nothing but 100 dimers which includes the 100 dime super bowl winner their last super bowl meeting and this play is twice as strong as that release.

Twice as strong as a predicted 11 1/2 point underdog I said would shock the world and win the whole game outright? You bet your ass it is.

Quick question for you.

What has changed since 2007 that leads anybody to believe the outcome of this game will be any different?

First and foremost, the Patriots defense has gotten worse and Eli Manning has gotten better.

That in itself makes the Giants the right side again.

New England isn't going to ride the 2nd worst defense in the NFL to a Super bowl title. Just not going to happen.

If Joe Flacco can roll into cold New England with that limited offense and shred the Pats defense to the tune of 22 for 36 for close to 300 yards, what do you think Eli is going to do indoors on a fast track?

Don't get me wrong, the Patriots will have some success on offense but it will be their defense's ability to get a few key stops in the 2nd half that will be the difference in the ball game.

Now here are some more reasons why I love the dog in what will push my #1 super bowl record in the world to 18-2-2 for my career.

I am the greatest super bowl handicapper that ever lived and I prove it again Sunday.

Analysis

It's all about little brother putting on a show in big brothers house.

This game Sunday isn't about Bill Belichick. It's not about Tom Brady. It's not about the New England Patriots.

It's about Eli Manning.

If you think for one second the 2nd worst defense in the NFL is going to stop him, then you are highly mistaken my friend.

They couldn't rattle him in 2007 when they were the better team and undefeated with a defense featuring Junior Seau, Teddy Bruschi, Vrabel and Rodney Harrison.

You think this 31st defense is going to rattle him? Come on now.

The Eli the Patriots saw in 2007 and the Eli they are seeing on Sunday is about as different as Rex Grossman and Joe Montana.

There is no way the Patriots defense is going to play well enough to shut down Eli and win this game. Not going to happen.

A team with a defense ranked this bad overall is not going to win the Super bowl. It can't happen and it won't happen and are you ready for the reason why?

The Patriots ended the season ranked 31st defensively against a schedule which saw them face just 3 playoff teams all year long....Denver, Pittsburgh and Giants.

So against a bunch of losing teams you still ranked almost dead last defensively in the NFL. Juggle that around in your head for a minute, you have time.

Big deal the Patriots have won 10 games in a row since losing that regular season matchup back in early November to the Giants.

Allow me to take a moment in listing for you the 10 QB's the 31st ranked New England defense has faced leading up to this game Sunday:

Mark Sanchez, Tyler Palko, Vince Young, Dan Orlovsky, Rex Grossman, Tim Tebow, Matt Moore, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tim Tebow and Joe Flacco.

Just digest those guys for a moment. There isn't one guy above there that can carry Eli's jock right now. Not one.

Now, I take it one step further for you. Throw Tebow out of the mix and feast your eyes on the numbers these guys put up on this Patriots defense:

Sanchez 20 of 39 for 306 yards, Palko 24 of 37 for 230 yards, Young 26 of 48 for 400 yards, Orlovsky 30 of 37 for 353 yards, Grossman 19 of 32 for 252 yards, Moore 16 of 32 for 281 yards and Fitzpatrick 29 of 46 for 307 yards.

And as I said above, Flacco in the playoff game 2 weeks ago went 22 of 36 for 306 yards.

Come on now. Vince Young goes for 400 yards! Orlovsky 353! Sanchez 306! You want to trust your money with that defense be my guest. NOT ME!

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Eli goes for over 400 yards on Sunday. Wouldn't surprise me in the least.

So I say to you again, against teams and QB's that aren't even close to Eli Manning, your defense, ranking almost dead last made some of these guys look like all-pro's.

Can you imagine if the Patriots had seen Aaron Rogers or Drew Brees?

Folks, both teams are going to score in this game, hence the reason I have come with a free play on the Over.

The difference in this game will be the Giants defense and their ability to get the stops necessary to deliver the win.

Tom Brady is a good NFL quarterback and if given time to throw, he becomes great., just like Elway, Montana, Aikman, all the greats.

You get pressure on him, as the Giants did in 2007 and the Ravens did 2 weeks ago, Brady gets rattled just like any other QB in the NFL.

How does 22 of 36 with 2 INT's at home against the Ravens suit you?

The key to the game in 07 was the fact the Giants were able to get pressure on Brady with their front four thus allowing them to drop 7 into coverage. They will be able to do that again.

They beat them in New England earlier this year because they were the better team and they will beat them indoors in Indy because they are the better team.

They beat the Patriots the first time without Hicks and Bradshaw, two huge key components in this G'men offense and they are back playing well.

I've always said the Patriots and Belichick are an overhyped machine and I also said Brady and Belichick will never win another super bowl together.

You look at their Super bowl wins and they pulled off the upset of the Rams while getting taken to OT by Jake Delhomme and the Panthers and allowed a backdoor to the Eagles on a poor performance by McNabb.

They have not been dominant in any Super bowl and they won't be dominate here. They will be dominated.

Lastly, Tom Coughlin and his staff coached circles around Belichick the last Super bowl meeting between these two and he will do it again as he cements his place in Canton, Ohio.

Congratulations to Mr. Couglin, to Eli Manning the MVP and the New York Giants as they bring the hammer down on the Pats legacy in a fantastic Super bowl win.

GIANTS 34 Patriots 24

[Bozzie]

17-2-2 not bad...
Is that for real?

[Mendoza Line]

Originally Posted by Mindsink

I'm sorry, but I have a hard time believing that a game's outcome will be decided by who bets on which side or which percentage of the public is on a certain side.

You're thinking about it wrong. Of course the outcome isn't predetermined by who bets on what, no more than the Bookmakers know the outcome ahead of time and set lines to trick the public into taking the wrong side.

Here's a good way to look at it: If you knew that one person or group will have a losing record 10 years from now, wouldn't you choose to take the opposite of every play they make for the next 10 years? Of course, we can't "know" who is going to suck long-term, but we can have a real good idea.

The "public" sometimes wins a game, a day, or a weekend, but they'll never win long-term. Its the reason the casinos don't go out of business and my local has two Maseratis.

WP is hitting from 35-45% in all sports going back at least 3 years, and since he's 1-10-1 this week, it doesn't look to be changing any time soon.

I don't follow Lang day-to-day, but according to the guys in the Service section, he has about one winning month per year. That's been going on forever, and if you faded him religiously, you'd be up tens of thousands of "units."

[The Frozen Pond]

I saw someone post in another thread the Giants are getting 55% of the action?


Is this true?


Hardly constitutes "everyone" being on the Giants if so

[buli]

Still waiting on rev w/ the OM play for the trifecta...

[Mendoza Line]

Frozen Pond --

Giants 58% ATS and 69% ML on one tally source

Giants 54% ATS and 69% ML at another

It's not unusual for the public to lean to ML dogs, as people are generally attracted to the plus-money. But when public percentages, which disproportionately support ATS favorites, are supporting an ATS dog, even at lower levels, raise an eyebrow. Also consider that a high-profile game like this is almost never going to have 70% or more on either side, because that's harder to do on such high volume. Considering, the volume and the fact that it's an underdog, I personally give the 54-58% much more weight than I would typically.

[The Frozen Pond]

Thanks ML

Yeah, volume I figured would be a huge factor in making a smaller edge be more considerable in reality


Guess I'm just gonna have to ride with the team that has actually proven they can stop a high powered offense on multiple occasions this year


And hope like hell this is a year where Joe Pub cashes

Happens plenty in the SB

[Oh Heeka]

Mendoza, been following and watching your NFL plays for years. Back when Brother Love was posting, you guys along with Golden Greek created an awesome system for me and a very profitable one as well. I am obviously a Vegas bettor but I have learned the hard way that Superbowl usually goes to the public.

2011: Green Bay: Public
2010: New Orleans: Slight Public
2009: Arizona: Public
2008: NY Giants: Public
2007: Indy: Vegas
2006: Pittsburg: Slight Public
2005: Philadelphia: ???
2004: Carolina: ???
2003: Tampa Bay: ???

I know everyone wants to fade Lang and WP, but if the public wins then so do they. What's everyone's thoughts on this?

[Mendoza Line]

My thoughts and memories of recent SBs:

1) Public, Lang, WP, whatever.....a single game (even the Super Bowl) in just that, a single game, and general long-term trends can't possibly apply to a single game. Would I rather be on the other side of Lang and WP? Of course. But they might win the Super bowl, it's just one game, and anyone can win a game. The service section guys often say that the public tends to win when they are on the other side of the tout consensus, but I don't know who the majority of touts are on for the game tomorrow.

2) The public won last year. I lost the side last year, but I won the total. The year before in northern Nevada, the Saints were not the public side. The casinos in northern Nevada were getting hit hard with the Colts, as was my local in Utah. I got Saints +7. The Saints were not my regional public side.

3) I publicly (ESPN radio) picked NYG +DD points vs the Pats last time, not knowing who the public was on.

4) I remember explicitly taking TB vs Oak in 2003, and I remember Oakland being a big public side.

5) The year before that, I remember that the Rams were a huge public play because the Mississippi Coast Offense was such a machine, and the Pats surprised everyone.