Miami : 6 Wins Or 5 Or Less ?

[Kramer]

MIAMI
Team Theme - TUNA CASSEROLE

When the Dolphins secured the services of Bill Parcells as general manager and executive vice president of operations last fall, it was a step in the right direction for a floundering program. It marked the 4th time in the last 5 years the team has changed coaches and GM's.

The Big Tuna inherits a 1-15 team knowing his recipe for success will likely take a while. Amazingly we found that, of the seven previous 1-15 teams, six of them had a .500 or better record within the next two seasons.

Three of them played in conference championship games within three years while two advanced to the Super Bowl. A rock-solid draft, coupled with strong off-season free agent signings, gives the Tuna the necessary starting ingredients. The question is how soon before the dish comes out of the oven?

Even though the NFL regular season doesn’t begin for more than three months, gamblers have already been attacking the betting counter with “Season Win Total” wagers.

The bet itself is rather simple -- just choose ‘over’ or ‘under’ the listed win total. Like the majority of most sports wagers, you have a 50/50 shot of winning or losing. However, gamblers will have to wait the entire season to cash their tickets on this bet or some would say mini-investment.

After the full 17-week schedule was released in April, Las Vegas Hilton Sports Book Director Jay Kornegay and his team posted win totals for all 32 clubs.
“We usually have five to six opinions from our group of oddsmakers and put them all together.

Ed Salmons, our Sports Book Manager, compiles the predictions and we have a “roundtable” meeting and go over each team. It’s basically a continuation of last year and we account for personnel changes, coaching changes, career years, history, public betting patterns and then come up with a number,” said Kornegay.

Last year, New England easily eclipsed its season win total of 11 ½ victories with a perfect 16-0 regular season. This season, the Patriots have been listed anywhere from 12 to 13 victories at sportsbooks in Nevada.

Kornegay added, “We usually find most teams that come back from a good year tend to come back to the pack and vice versa. This is exactly what the NFL wants and gets it in most cases. It’s rare (Patriots) for a team to stay on top for long periods of time in the NFL.”

It’s been said before that the NFL is a league of parity or perhaps critics would rather user mediocrity. Either way you spell it, the league always has a team come out of nowhere and overachieve.

Non-gamblers in South Florida are hoping that their Miami Dolphins can swing the pendulum the other way this year and become a surprise team. Whether or not that happens won’t be determined until this fall, but most pundits aren’t expecting the team to be hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy anytime soon.


The Las Vegas Hilton has listed the Fish as a 100/1 choice to win Super Bowl XLIII from Tampa Bay. While nothing is impossible, bettors might be smarter to wager on the team’s win total of 5 ½ games.

“The Dolphins weren’t as bad as the one-win team we witnessed last year. No team is. Adding Bill Parcells and a new general manager (Jeff Ireland) will help the overhaul in Miami. They addressed needs on the offensive line in the draft, which should contribute right away and help running back Ronnie Brown, who was injured last year,” said Kornegay.

Most of the naysayers aren’t a buying a quick turn around in South Florida under new head coach Tony Sparano, but looking at the situation closer might make you optimistic.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 0-14 in 1976, becoming the only team to go winless in a season. Last year, Miami almost topped its northern neighbor with a 0-16 season but was fortunate to stop Baltimore in Week 15 at home with a lucky 22-16 overtime victory. Despite the lone win, the Dolphins became the eighth team to post a 1-15 record in the regular season.



Carolina was the last team to notch a 1-15 mark in the regular season, doing so in 2001. Ironically, the Panthers won their first game that season before losing 15 straight. Carolina didn’t have a winning season the following year either, but it did manage to go 7-9.


Of the seven previous teams to go 1-15, the worst record in the following year was 4-12. The best turnaround was 9-7, which happened twice with Indianapolis (1991-1992) and New York Jets (1996-1997).


We mentioned the New York Jets bounce back season in 1997 and a lot of people would attribute the success to their head coach, who happened to be Bill Parcells. The Jets didn’t make the playoffs that year, but the eight-game turnaround helped the club go 12-4 the very next season and eventually earn a spot in the AFC Championship Game.


Parcells is not the head coach in Miami, more importantly the Executive Vice President of Football Operations which means he’s still calling the shots. The Big Tuna recently departed the sidelines of Dallas two years ago after rebuilding a franchise with three consecutive 5-11 seasons. Parcells went 10-6 in his first year in the Lone Star State.


While he’s had two impressive debuts with the Jets and Cowboys, he did struggle in his first year with the Giants (3-12-1) and Patriots (5-11). After dealing with the growing pains, Parcells took both clubs to the playoffs the very next season.


As much as people want to knock the Fish, the past four years can be considered an anomaly. Since the Dolphins joined the NFL in 1970 as part of the AFL-NFL Merger, has only had five losing seasons in its NFL history, with three of them coming in the last four seasons.

And of the five losing seasons, only twice have the Dolphins failed to eclipse the six-win plateau.
Not a lot of folks knew who Tony Sparano was before he became the eighth head coach in franchise history of the Miami Dolphins. Sparano has only been in the league for nine years, working for the Dallas Cowboys the last four years.


Even though Sparano enters a serious rebuilding plan, head coaches making their debut with the Dolphins have flourished with the exception of Cam Cameron’s 1-15 aberration last year.
Just ask the legendary Don Shula, who went 10-4 in his first year in 1970. Another Super Bowl coach, Jimmie Johnson, toyed with mediocrity at 8-8 in his South Florida debut.


Dave Wannstedt didn’t bring lofty expectations with him, but the Western Pennsylvania product burst onto the scene with an 11-5 ledger in his first go ‘round.


Nick Saban shrugged off the notion that college football coaches couldn’t parlay their success to the pro game. He was certainly humbled with a 3-7 start in 2005 before closing the year with six straight victories.


Every year, the NFL has a large number of new head coaches walking the sidelines. In the past two years, 12 fresh faces have made their NFL coaching debuts. Surprisingly, six of the 12 posted a .500 or better record and three, Sean Payton – New Orleans, Eric Mangini – N.Y. Jets, Mike Tomlin – Pittsburgh, made the playoffs in their first stint.


Sparano’s talk is tough and while it would be nice to include him in a group with Payton, Mangini and Tomlin, he could also be another Rod Marinelli (Detroit), Bobby Petrino (Atlanta) or the previously mentioned Cameron.
It’s a bit of a stretch to say the Dolphins’ schedule is soft, considering most opponents are viewing them as the cupcake this season. However, the slate doesn’t seem overpowering – on paper.


For starters, Miami gets the privilege of playing two of the weaker divisions in football, the AFC and NFC West. Last season, only San Diego and Seattle made the playoffs out of those eight teams and they both travel to Dolphins Stadium.
Your regular six games against the likes of the Bills, Jets and Patriots could boast a 3-3 ledger, if things bounce the right way. And, you toss in winnable games against Houston and Baltimore.

Finally, it’s hard not to mention that the team won’t be traveling to London this season. That’s right, eight home games instead seven.
Playoff football in South Florida might be a bit of a reach this year, but banking on a half-dozen wins might not be such a bad investment after all.
Over +100
Under -120

From The Greek
Break It Down Dr. Jack

[Dr. Jack]

Not sure. They have I think 47 new players on the roster. They will be better for sure and are heading in the right direction. They have a fairly easy schedule. I think they can split with Buffalo and the Jets within the division and have some games they will have a chance to win. It looks to me like they have about 6 winnable games. They may end up losing one of these and picking one up somewhere else. If a gun to my head, I think 6 wins and it barely goes over

1 Sun, Sep 7 NY Jets 1:00 PM (winnable)
2 Sun, Sep 14 at Arizona 4:15 PM
3 Sun, Sep 21 at New England 1:00 PM
5 Sun, Oct 5 San Diego 1:00 PM
6 Sun, Oct 12 at Houston 1:00 PM
7 Sun, Oct 19 Baltimore 1:00 PM (winnable)
8 Sun, Oct 26 Buffalo 1:00 PM (winnable)
9 Sun, Nov 2 at Denver 4:05 PM
10 Sun, Nov 9 Seattle 1:00 PM (slight chance)
11 Sun, Nov 16 Oakland 1:00 PM (winnable)
12 Sun, Nov 23 New England 1:00 PM
13 Sun, Nov 30 at St. Louis 1:00 PM (winnable)
14 Sun, Dec 7 at Buffalo 4:05 PM
15 Sun, Dec 14 San Francisco 1:00 PM (winnable)
16 Sun, Dec 21 at Kansas City 1:00 PM
17 Sun, Dec 28 at NY Jets 1:00 PM

[BigFratDaddy]

theyll be much improved on defense, but with that offense theyll be lucky to win 5 imo

[BigdaddyQH]

I don't knowJack. Picking them to win in St. Louis in the middle of a divisional sandwich is a bit too risky for me, especially since the game is indoors.

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH

I don't knowJack. Picking them to win in St. Louis in the middle of a divisional sandwich is a bit too risky for me, especially since the ame is indoors.

I didn't say they will win, I said it's winnable. I agree it could be a tough game for them and no game for Miami this year is a definite win.

[Wellahiya]

wow, when i first read teh title i didnt realize it was NFL... thought we chat about the Heat here

i think it will be exactly 5 wins and none on teh road.

[jim1701]

U guys forget Defense can win games as well. I see this team easily going to 7-9 / 8-8 record...and dont forget injuries in the right places can help them as well...

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by jim1701

U guys forget Defense can win games as well. I see this team easily going to 7-9 / 8-8 record...and dont forget injuries in the right places can help them as well...

The problem is their defense was terrible last year. They couldn't stop the run and secondary wasn't that good either. They were beat up and should be better, but they don't have anything close to a dominant defense.

I acutally think the offense is what will surprise people. They should have a better than avg running game and offensive line and if one of the QB's emerge, I think they'll score some points

Time will tell - I just want to see a little progress. lol

[BigdaddyQH]

I think that you will definately see progress. Unfortunately, that may not translate into wins this year, but their future seems to be heading in the right direction. A solid QB would really help solidify the offense. The Jets should be their target this year. A 3rd place finish in their division would be a good stepping stone for the future.

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH

I think that you will definately see progress. Unfortunately, that may not translate into wins this year, but their future seems to be heading in the right direction. A solid QB would really help solidify the offense. The Jets should be their target this year. A 3rd place finish in their division would be a good stepping stone for the future.

I think the key is Beck, maybe Henne down the road. If it ends up being McCown that is probably not a good sign for immediate future. 3rd place would be nice. lol

[huscroft6]

Id go under. Theyve added some quality additons to the much scrambled puzzle they have to put together. Nice draft IMO and some immediate impact players, granted its hard not to impact a 1 win team. But nonetheless should be helpful. The RB situation should be fine as RB has progressed very well from what I read and yes I think Rickey will help. But too many questions at QB, I liked them drafting Henne for the future but I hate Beck and dont think McCown (esp in this offense let alone a good one) can be anything than average. Their D will improve but with all the coaching changes, AGAIN, its going to be tough as much as I hate to say it, I see 3-4 and hope im dead wrong. Anyhow, being a die hard Fin fan id thought id throw my 2 cents in and keep it as short as possible.