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  #1  
Old 08-12-2002, 02:12 PM
Stat Man
 
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MIAMI/Tampa Bay - Monday Night F/B

In this game you can bet at quite a line of odds, most books
have it at Miami plus 5.5 at about 2 EDT when I checked, but
you can get Miami plus 6 at some books and only plus 5 at
a couple--I made my bet taking MIAMI plus 5.5 (because that
is what my book had it at-would have loved 6 though). And
I continue to bet only flyers through this game - the finish
of the first week of Preseason FB. In this game, Miami will start
their Starting QB who is just back in Training - due to surgery in
July. He will run at least the first series of plays and possibly even
the second series for the Dolphins. He will turn over the QB
chores after that to Ray Lucas for the remainder of the First Half
and then Zak Kustok and Tim Levcik will play the third and 4th
quarters in no certain manner. Tampa Bay, will start Brad Johnson
and will give him 3 series, at most, and then Rob Johnson will
finish the 2nd Qtr and possibly play some of the 3rd Qtr. Then
Shaun King will play most or all of the 3rd qtr and all of the 4th
quarter. Under Dave Wennstedt, the Dolphins have posted
a 4-5 SU preseason record the past two years. Against the
Spread they are 4-4-1. Tampa Bays new head coach- played
in 17 preseasoners at Oakland and had a 11-6 SU record during
the preseason but only was 9-8 Against the Spread during that
time period. The last time Gruden played with a new team in
an opener of the preseason - his team was beaten 41-7 by
no less than Tampa Bay (1999- Oakland/Tampa Bay at Oakland
TB 41-Oak 7). Miami and Tampa Bay have played 4 preseason
games in the last 5 years--Miami has a 3-1 series record SU
and is 3-1 Against the Spread in the last 4 preseason meetings.
Last year these teams almost mirrored each other--Miami s
Offense gained 292.6 yards per game averageing 3.5 yards
per carry. TB offense gained 291.3 yard per game and averaged
3.3 per rush. TB s defense gave up an average of 4.2 yards per
rush and Miamis defense gave up 4.0 ypr. TBs secondary gave
up a considerable amount of passing yards over what Miamis
did though. almost 7 yard per attempt by TB and about 6 yards
per attempt by Miami. TB played in 6 Over games last year and
11 Unders, Miami played in 8 Overs and 9 Unders. The Total
for this game is 31 1/2 points at most books but some have it
at 32. Need to also add-that the weather at TB stadium at
2 pm edt - was 80% humidity and cloudy--so there is an above
average chance of getting rain before or during this game. I
will therefore take MIAMI (Plus 5.5 points) and the UNDER 31 1/2
points for my plays in this preseason contest. But as I said prior
I am still only betting flyers on the games-and not units; and
probably will only bet flyers next week too. Also will add, this
preseason- thus far there have been 9 Over games and 8 Under
games played thus far in the NFL-so a pretty even start to the
preseason. Would like to add another reason for my betting
Miami, which was pointed out in another thread by Dr. Jack,
Miami has considerable MORE experience in their 2nd stringers
than TB--you can expect to see MORE of Miamis starters and
experienced personnel FAR LONGER than Tampa Bays--they
just have more experienced personnel to put on the field during
this game. Just another reason I like Miami. So Good luck with
all your bets. J. (CM Posting record - preseason 5-3--No unit
bets placed only flyers thus far (and will only bet a flyer on this
game too.)
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  #2  
Old 08-12-2002, 11:27 PM
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Talking sweepage!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The score indicates it was not even close....but you could have lost the under. However, my local bookie is cursing you right now....I am however, having a beer in your honor

wde
by the way i bet straight and turned both sides
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Old 08-12-2002, 11:32 PM
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LOVE IT WHEN SOMEONE KILLS THE BOOK LIKE THAT.
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Old 08-13-2002, 12:00 AM
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gdf
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  #5  
Old 08-13-2002, 08:36 AM
Stat Man
 
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Admit to some luck in that game Cman (and everyone that posted
above and played). But the game was much closer - Miami blew
the opening kickoff, OR THEY PROBABLY WIN IT SU, especially
considering they fumbled on the one yard line later near the half.
The thing about these preseasons - that is why the line is so low-
alot of mistakes, fumbles, interceptions, poor routes. Three missed Field Goals--easy to miss the under--But you also have to
take a certain amount of these types of plays (missed field Goals
and fumbles into account). On Grudens failure to try the field
goal at the end--did not surprise me at all--he did exactly what
he would have done during the regular season, try the puch kick
to pin the other team deep--and make them march the WHOLE
FIELD for the TD-he was leading by 4 at the time- with no Timeouts. Tampa Bay did some things really well--I liked their
trap blocking and pull blocking on run plays--they are an improved
team. Miami did some things well-especially running the ball
against TB defense. They probably should have won the game
SU but did not. Either way- will go over to my book and collect
my money this morning and hope everyone else did or will too,
sometimes it helps to be REAL LUCKY. Good luck with all your
bets. J
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  #6  
Old 08-13-2002, 12:05 PM
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I became a

Gruden fan last night when punted from Miami's 25.
wde
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  #7  
Old 08-13-2002, 02:26 PM
Stat Man
 
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Yep, Cman - me too. But I think he would have played it that
way during the regular season--lot of chance getting a field
goal blocked--the punt was the safe, defensive thing to do.
The Dolphins had not moved the ball much during the second
half and making them move 80 yards (and more if the puch kick
had worked) seemed to be the smarter move. I believe he was
at that time--thinking more of winning the game, than getting
his placekicker another shot at a field goal under game conditions.
His team and Miami too, had played a good game (for a preseason game); no use rubbing a victory in with one minute
left in the game and Miami with no timeouts. But he is a class
act anyway for whatever his reasons-think he did the SMART
thing-and he was playing too win by doing that (kick instead of
trying the FG). Best of luck to you with all your bets; always like
to read your posts and replys. J
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