MNF Hedge and guarantee win or ride it out for $275? What would you do?

[sdt1890]

Here's my situation:

Each week I throw $5 in a pool with a bunch of people and we pick winners, the person with the least amount of wins, wins the entire pot, if more than one person has the same wins, each person must pick points and closest wins.

Today, I found out it is down to me and 3 other guys. The other 3 all picked PIT and I picked SF, which today I'm not feeling 100% confident about. The pot is $275, since I'm the only one on SF, I just need a SF win and I get the $275.

So I'm now looking at hedging.

Option #1 -- ride it out, don't hedge walk away with $0 or $275.

Option #2 -- hedge and bet $137.50 money line on PIT tonight which yields $185 if PIT wins and if they lose I would lose the $137.50 and get the $275 from the pool for a net of $137.50.

I'm thinking Option #2 looks the best, I'm just not sure enough on SF tonight and would rather guarantee a win.

Is there any other ways to play this? Any thoughts?

If it's any consolation, I've had pretty good luck with this pool already winning once this year, then again I don't think anyone has ever won twice.

[Detroit's Finest]

I would just put a Hunddy on pit and wait for my profit,
A wise man here at the mall once said
" A profit is a profit, no matter how small "

Hedge, Always

Brian

[sdt1890]

With Big Ben so questionable, I could lower and just bet $100 or even a little lower on PIT.

So many ways this could go.

[SteelCityPlayers]

go with your gut bro and gl!

[sdt1890]

Ok, going to put a little more thought into this, definitely going to hedge. I think I'm going to just go $100 money line on PIT and be done with it.

Any other thoughts?

[rmaciasl]

the thing is to make profit so hedgeq

[AllIDOisWINwinWIN]

You only put $5 in? Man let that ride.... maybe if the amount was higher. You have $5 at risk to win 275 or youll have 105 at risk to win 137.50.

LET IT RIDE and pull like hell for the 9ers (which have a great chance at winning fyi)

[sdt1890]

Ok, just pulled the trigger.

I went $75 on PIT money line. If PIT wins, I'll just be ahead the $101 from the money line.

If all goes well, PIT loses and I am out $75 for the PIT bet and bring in $275 from the pot for a net of $200.

Thanks for the replies everyone and BOL tonight.

[sdt1890]

Hmm just remembered I won this pool on Week 4, and the pick I made that put me ahead of most was SF beating the Eagles... ironically this week SF can help me out again.

Also added the following player props:

First player to score a TD, Hines Ward ... $3 to win $42
Vernon Davis OVER 40.5 yards ... $10 to win $8.70
Heath Miller OVER 35.5 yards ... $10 to win $8.70
Frank Gore YES to score a TD ... $10 to win $10
Frank Gore Total Receptions OVER 1.5 ... $10 to win $8.70

Be back later, good luck to all!

[sdt1890]

Originally Posted by sdt1890

Hmm just remembered I won this pool on Week 4, and the pick I made that put me ahead of most was SF beating the Eagles... ironically this week SF can help me out again.

Also added the following player props:

First player to score a TD, Hines Ward ... $3 to win $42 ... LOSS
Vernon Davis OVER 40.5 yards ... $10 to win $8.70 ... WIN
Heath Miller OVER 35.5 yards ... $10 to win $8.70 ... WIN
Frank Gore YES to score a TD ... $10 to win $10 ... WIN
Frank Gore Total Receptions OVER 1.5 ... $10 to win $8.70 ... LOSS

Be back later, good luck to all!

SF put a whooping on PIT tonight! $$$

[LadyDawn]

i know you already made your decsion but for $5 i would let it ride !

shiit $5 dont even buy you 2 gals of gas

[Mindsink]

Originally Posted by LadyDawn

i know you already made your decsion but for $5 i would let it ride !

shiit $5 dont even buy you 2 gals of gas

He made the right move. He basically insured his payout by playing both sides. However, he played the incorrect amount, IF his goal was to assure equal payout regardless of outcome. It worked out in his favor since he bet less on the PIT side.

[sdt1890]

Originally Posted by Mindsink

He made the right move. He basically insured his payout by playing both sides. However, he played the incorrect amount, IF his goal was to assure equal payout regardless of outcome. It worked out in his favor since he bet less on the PIT side.

The more I thought about it I figured Pit could win, but felt a little bit better the more I thought about Big Ben's health. Initially, I was going to split it down the middle, then thought about $100, and ended up just putting down the $75.

By only putting $75 down, worst case scenario I come out with $101, and since my SF pick held up, I came out ahead $200. I'm satisfied.