MNF thoughts and discussion

[ghoopin]

It appears the line is about where it should be. Saints won 26-23 in Atlanta earlier this year. Add 3 points for home field tonight and you are .5 point from the line. As always, Saints look to be a big public play while sharps are hitting Atlanta. Not sure I like only getting 6.5 against Drew Brees. If you are backing Atlanta, and I think this may factor into the total as well, this was the game that Mike Smith took criticism for going for it on 4th down and not trusting his defense. Think that defense may play with a chip on their shoulder tonight. I'd probably say the under would be my play of choice right now. Gun to my head, I'd probably play a tease on either side of the spread and the under if I had to place it now. I personally always prefer to wait to see if it crosses a key number or the sharps buy back on the day of the game. This line almost begs you to buy .5 if you are on Atlanta. Putting the line at 5.5 or 6 would have made it seem a little more like Atlanta is a sharp play. We'll see where it goes. Love to hear others thoughts.

[Pic n Locs]

Most vegas shops opened the # as saints - 7 OU 53.5

Currently the line holds at 6.5 OU 52.5 in most vegas shops.
Dispite 83% of the public side with saints (spread) as well as 83% public siding with the over, the lines have dropped, indicating large sharp money was layed early on falcons and under.

Week 10 was the last time these rivals hooked up ending in a 26-23 saints OT victory @ the G.A Dome. The saints cashed outright as 1pnt dogs. This is the 4th consecutive game between the 2 decided by 3pnts. Away team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS.

Dispite Saints impressive home team record ATS, I would surely suggest siding with the falcons in this match up