Monday Night Football Betting News - 11/21

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NFL Week 11

Chiefs (4-5) @ Patriots (6-3) - Chief QB Cassel (hand) is out for year; former Pitt QB Palko gets first NFL start here, leading team that scored one TD on last 21 drives in losing last two games by 28-7 points. Patriots won four of last five series games; Chiefs lost last four visits here by 30-6-3-7 points, with last win in '90. Patriots lost two of last three games, but are 3-1 at home, winning by 14-9-4 points with a loss to Jets (2-2 as home faves). Six of last seven Kansas City games stayed under total, as did three of last four Patriot tilts. Chief personnel head Pioli had same role in Foxboro during Patriots' championship years. Chiefs covered their last three road games, are 5-1 as an underdog this season.

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MNF - Chiefs at Patriots
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider

The Chiefs and Patriots wrap up Week 11 in the NFL on Monday night as New England looks to stay sharp against a banged-up Kansas City squad. The Pats (6-3) got back on track after a strong second half performance against the Jets to take control of first place in the AFC East.

Tom Brady sliced up the Jets' defense for three touchdowns and 329 yards as New England snapped a two-game skid with a 37-16 drubbing of New York as 2 ½-point road underdogs. The Patriots rushed for just 60 yards, but Rob Gronkowski continued a Pro Bowl-type season as the tight end caught two touchdowns to go along with 113 yards receiving. With the win, New England pulled off the season sweep of New York, but the Pats were also assisted by the Jets losing to the Broncos on Thursday night.

The Chiefs (4-5) have seen plenty of highs and lows this season, as Kansas City will likely play the rest of the way without quarterback Matt Cassel. The former Patriot injured his throwing hand in last week's 17-10 loss to Denver, as the Broncos completed a measly two passes in the victory. Cassel threw for just 93 yards on 13 completions before giving way to Tyler Palko, who will get the start against the Patriots.

The ex-Pittsburgh Panthers quarterback is making his first career start on Monday against a Patriots' defense that is allowing a league-worst 412 yards/game. The New England secondary has been torched all season as the passing defense has given up 308 yards/game, which ranks at the bottom of the league. However, the Chiefs are averaging 182.2 yards/game through the air and 15.7 points/game, which will make things tough for Kansas City to keep up with New England's explosive offense.

The Patriots were scoring points in waves the first five weeks of the season by topping the 30-point mark each time. However, New England hit a wall in the following three games by scoring 20 points or less against the Steelers, Cowboys, and Giants, while losing to Pittsburgh and New York. Bill Belichick's team has profited against the number this season with a 5-4 ATS mark, as the Pats are listed as a double-digit favorite for the first time in 2011.

Kansas City's best role has been as an underdog as Todd Haley's club is 5-1 ATS this season when receiving points. The Chiefs were the hottest team from a pointspread standpoint from Week 3 through Week 8 with five consecutive covers, including an overtime triumph over the Chargers in a Monday night thriller. However, laying points isn't Kansas City's strong suit by going 0-3 ATS this season, including back-to-back home losses to Miami and Denver.

The Packers snapped a three-game ATS losing streak for favorites on Monday night in last week's 45-7 rout of the Vikings, improving 'chalk' to 5-6 ATS in Monday affairs. However, favorites of at least eight points have covered just one of four times this season, including outright losses by Baltimore (at Jacksonville) and Philadelphia (vs. Chicago).

This is only the fourth Monday night game at Gillette Stadium since 2003, as the Patriots are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the previous three contests. The last one was a resounding blowout by the Pats, a 45-3 trouncing of the Jets last November as four-point favorites. New England won in its only Monday night appearance back in Week 1, beating Miami, 38-24 as seven-point 'chalk.'

The Patriots are listed as 16½-point favorites against this undermanned Chiefs' squad, but New England owns a 1-5 ATS mark the last six times as double-digit 'chalk.' The total is set at 46½, while several outfits have the game at 47. Things kick off at 8:30 PM EST from Foxboro as the game will be televised nationally on ESPN.

[new york knight]

What Bettors Need to Know: Chiefs at Patriots
By Covers

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-15, 46.5)

THE STORY: For one of the few times during the Bill Belichick reign, the New England Patriots were dealing with more questions than they had answers heading into last week's AFC East showdown at the New York Jets. Facing the prospect of a third straight defeat for the first time in nine years, the Patriots regained their footing and hammered the archrival Jets 37-16.

With one crisis averted and back in its familiar perch atop the division, New England faces what appears to be a rout in the making when it hosts the bruised and battered Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night. The Chiefs have lost two straight following a four-game winning streak.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (4-5): After opening the season with three disastrous losses, Kansas City appeared ready to seize control of the AFC West by ripping off four consecutive wins, including victories over division rivals Oakland and San Diego.

Then came lopsided home defeats to previously winless Miami and Tim Tebow-led Denver last week, a game in which Matt Cassel may have been lost for the season with a hand injury that required surgery.

Having already lost star RB Jamaal Charles for the season in Week 2, the Chiefs will go be forced to start QB Tyler Palko, who has 13 career pass attempts to his credit.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (6-3): After three straight weeks of failing to surpass 20 points, New England got its high-powered offense back on track as Tom Brady threw for 329 yards and three touchdowns in carving up the Jets.

Equally important for the Patriots was the performance of its much-maligned defense, which is ranked dead last in the league but registered five sacks – including a franchise-record 4.5 by Andre Carter.

Second-year TE Rob Gronkowski continues to be a force with eight catches for a career-high 113 yards and two TDs. WR Wes Welker leads the league in receptions (72) and yards (1,006).

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The teams last met in the season opener in 2008. Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury, opening the door for Cassel to take over as starter.

2. The Patriots are 9-1 in their last 10 Monday Night Football games.

3. Gronkowski had 18 TD passes in 25 career games. Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe has 19 scoring passes during that same span – second only to Detroit’s Calvin Johnson (23)

LINE MOVEMENT:

Most shops opened with the Pats giving 14.5 points but just about everyone now has it a half point higher at New England -15.The total opened as high as 48 but has been bet down to 46.5. Makes sense. We know the Pats can put up points but the Chiefs offense is struggling and missing Matt Cassel.

TRENDS:

The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when getting 10.5 or more points.

The Pats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with losing records but 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games when favored by 10.5 or more points.

The under is 4-0 in the Chiefs’ last four games while the over is 8-2 in the Pats’ last 10 home games.

WEATHER:

It should be a little chilly (game time temperature around 40 F) but wind and precipitation shouldn’t play a factor.

PREDICTION: Patriots 37, Chiefs 13. New England can name its number with Palko making his first career start.

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KANSAS CITY (4 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 3)

Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 141-106 ATS (+24.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


KANSAS CITY vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 15 of New England's last 20 games


KANSAS CITY at NEW ENGLAND
KANSAS CITY: 13-30 ATS vs. AFC East
NEW ENGLAND: 6-1 Over off double digit road win

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Kansas City
Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Chiefs are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Chiefs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
Chiefs are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.




New England
Patriots are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.
Patriots are 45-21-2 ATS in their last 68 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots are 27-13-2 ATS in their last 42 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Patriots are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Patriots are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.





Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 games overall.
Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 vs. AFC.
Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 9-2 in Chiefs last 11 games in Week 11.
Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 Monday games.
Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games as an underdog.
Under is 6-2 in Chiefs last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 6-2 in Chiefs last 8 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.




Over is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Over is 6-0 in Patriots last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 3-0-1 in Patriots last 4 games in Week 11.
Over is 7-1 in Patriots last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-1-1 in Patriots last 7 Monday games.
Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games in November.
Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 13-3 in Patriots last 16 games following a ATS win.
Over is 13-3 in Patriots last 16 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 8-2 in Patriots last 10 games as a home favorite.
Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 12-3 in Patriots last 15 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 8-2 in Patriots last 10 home games.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games as a favorite.
Over is 17-5 in Patriots last 22 vs. AFC.
Over is 21-7 in Patriots last 28 games overall.
Over is 9-3 in Patriots last 12 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 22-8-1 in Patriots last 31 games on fieldturf.
Over is 8-3 in Patriots last 11 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.