Muckslinger -- Week 3.... Upset

[Muckslinger]

5* --- Minnesota +3.5


After breaking down film of both teams, Scouts Inc. offers 10 things to watch in this week's Lions-Vikings matchup.


1. Detroit needs to throw to set up the run: The Lions have been explosive offensively through the air (averaging 313 yards with seven touchdowns) and the Vikings have been poor defending the pass thus far. Look for offensive coordinator Scott Linehan to throw on early downs to loosen up Minnesota's solid run defense.

2. But get Jahvid Best his touches: The Lions have several weapons to defend (Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson and Titus Young, as well as athletic tight ends) but need to continue to build their game plan around getting Best the ball. Look for Linehan to get Best his touches on a variety of running plays (isolation, off tackle, power, draws and sweeps) as well getting him in space as a receiver out of the backfield, particularly early.

3. Stop Adrian Peterson at all costs: Peterson has been outstanding (averaging 114 yards per game, 5.3 yards per attempt) in the Vikings' two losses this season. Minnesota is second in the league in rushing (172 yards per game) and Peterson has the ability to shred a defense. The Lions have been very average defending the run (yielding 104 yards per game and 4.6 yards per attempt). Look for defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham to crowd the line of scrimmage with eight-man fronts and zone run blitzes to derail Peterson, taking his chances against the pass.

4. Pressure Donovan McNabb out of base fronts: McNabb has been dismal early this season. He played poorly in the second half in Week 2 and was unimpressive in Minnesota's opener. He has also been erratic with his accuracy. If Detroit takes too many chances bringing pressure, it might play into the hands of a struggling Vikings offense. Look for a few wrinkles in the secondary as well as some stunts and twists up front, but Cunningham will likely try keeping McNabb off balance out of their base 4-3 scheme.

5. Matchup to watch: Detroit WR Calvin Johnson vs. the Minnesota cornerbacks: Johnson has an excellent combination of size, power and athleticism for the position. His strength and length will be a huge challenge for the Vikings' perimeter defenders. Cornerbacks Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin have experience and athleticism, but could get exposed when matched up in straight man coverage. Look for this to be a great battle in the passing game when the Lions decide to air it out.

6. Minnesota needs more balance offensively: The Vikings have an excellent ground attack and a dismal (second-worst in the league at 120 yards per game) passing game. McNabb is a capable veteran quarterback that must play better if Minnesota is going to win this contest. Look for offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave to expand the playbook on early downs (high percentage passes) to keep the Detroit defense off balance and get McNabb going.

7. Shorten the game with Peterson and Toby Gerhart: Both backs have great power and can punish a defense. The Lions have been one of the most explosive (37.5 points per game) offenses in the league early in the season. Look for Musgrave to continue to utilize a physical ground assault to limit Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense's opportunities.

8. Bring pressure early and often to get to Stafford: Stafford has been outstanding early in the season (112.0 passer rating) and hasn't been sacked thus far. The Vikings have been somewhat average pressuring opposing quarterbacks early in the season. Look for Leslie Frazier to be more aggressive with a variety of seven- and eight-man blitz packages to make Stafford uncomfortable in the pocket.

9. Win on special teams: The Vikings have their backs against the wall early in the season and appear to be somewhat overmatched in this contest. They do have an advantage in the kicking game with a veteran punter and kicker as well as dangerous return specialists (Marcus Sherels and Percy Harvin).

10. Matchup to watch: Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson vs. the Detroit LB corps: Peterson continues to make his case for being the best running back in the NFL. He can also be a factor as a receiver out of the backfield. The Detroit linebackers are athletic, but will have their hands full keeping Peterson from taking over the game.

3* -- New England -7

[GFB2008]

Good luck, Muck!