My Humble Attempt at $1,000,000 Playoff Win ...

[Wes Fisher]

I won Week 3 @ SportsBetting.com Gridiron Pickem for shot at $1,000,000 ... NOW WHAT?

As you may or may not recall, I gleefully reported some 3 1/2 months ago (at the post above) that I had just won Week 3 in Sportsbetting.com's "$1M Gridiron Pick 'Em" Contest, which you have likely seen advertised at many sports sites on the internet. As a result of that once in a lifetime win (I won the entire week out of over 5,000 entrants), I became 1 of only 20 people who will now compete in a special NFL Playoff Portion of the Contest. The 20 players consist of the top 3 finishers from the regular season & the winner of each of the 17 weeks. Prizes are as follows ...

1st) 50" Plasma TV ($3,000 value) - 10,000:1 contrast ratio / 16:9 widescreen aspect ratio / NTSC/ATSC tuner built in
2nd) Apple iPhone
3rd) Nintendo Wii

So, at the very least, I have decent odds of at least getting a prize. At the very best, if any of the entrants goes a PERFECT 11-0 ATS in the Playoffs, they also win a cool $1,000,000.00 cash ... so there's that too.

This is an ATS contest & we will only be picking Sides (no Totals). It had been my hope to post my thoughts earlier in the week & solicit some much needed help & advice from some of the best cappers here at Cappers Mall, but sadly a new job w/ some long hours just left me no time. I had also hoped to spend the entire week reading everything I could get my hands on for each game (local papers in each team's city, Team pages, etc.), but instead I had to decide on all 4 of my picks for this weekend in the past few hours. Here they are ...

Redskins +3.5 @ Seattle - I really like the way the Skins finished the season & even if SEA wins a hard-fought game here at home (& their 7-1 home mark this season gives them a great shot), I just can't lay the 3.5-pts on SEA. I can see this game going to the wire & if SEA does win, it could easily be by a FG & I still get the cover. The Skins are my fav pick of the weekend.

Jaguars -2.5 @ Pittsburgh - this is my LEAST fav pick of the weekend & the one I would've loved to get some input on if there was more time. Manily, this is my least favorite because I originally took the Steelers as a Home Dog with Playoff experience. This was the only game where I decided after researching, that PIT was just too banged up with injuries & in the end, that's the reason I changed my mind.

Giants +2.5 @ Tampa Bay - Defense usually wins in the playoffs, but this is my "hunch" play of the weekend, as I just think the Giants offense should be good enough to get this one.

Titans +9.5 @ San Diego - Chargers have been playing great, but they have poor history of success in playoffs recent years. Titans meanwhile, closed this season winning 4 of their L5, with the only loss being in OT to these Chargers. A game where San Diego actually trailed by 14 in the 4Q. With that in mind, there's a lot of room here to at least get the cover, as I do see SDG still winning outright.

In this contest, 1-3 in the first weekend is likely the end of any prize hopes & 2-2 is a struggle at best. I really need to hit my goal of 3-1 in the first week. As for the $1 Million, I don't like my chances this week simply for the reason that I am taking ALL 4 ROAD TEAMS ATS. Everyone knows that Home teams generally do well in the early rounds, but what can I do? I like these plays & I don't know which are the right ones to jump off. I take some hope that perhaps the home teams are favored just a bit higher because people like to bet the Home teams in the Playoffs, so maybe there's a tiny bit of line value in my favor. Also, I take some comfort that two (2) Home teams could easily win & still get me the cover on the Dogs (SEA & SDG), so maybe all the Dogs don't have to win for me to still survive this weekend.

Rest assured, I am under no dillusions about my chances of winning the $1M. I remember the odds were computed for me at roughly 1:2200 (still better than any lottery ticket anyway) when I first posted this 3 1/2 months ago. I am fully prepared that in all likelyhood, my quest for the big prize will almost certainly come to an abrupt end this very same weekend in which it begins.

Anyway, that's it. I promised to post my picks & here they are.

Please send some good vibes my way guys (if my team doesn't conflict with yours that is) & I wish you all the best of luck this weekend.

Wes F.

[GatorMike]

Good luck!!!

[reggie02]

Best of luck. Like you say, the odds are not very good to win the million, but they increase with every win. All I can say is that if you are comfortable with your plays and feel that you've done your research properly, then there is nothing more you can do but PRAY TO GOD THAT THEY WIN!

REG

[ZoomVT]

good luck man. i remember your thread last time and i was wondering if you were still around. good luck this weekend and take home the million.

[LLXC]

Good luck. I was on all home teams though.

[callicrock11]

titans with wisky at quarterback. good luck.

[Wes Fisher]

Originally Posted by Wes Fisher

Redskins +3.5 - Loss 14-35
Jaguars -2.5 - Loss 31-29
Giants +2.5 - WIN 24-14
Titans +9.5 - Loss 6-17

I knew the big prize was a fantasy, but I thought I could hold my own out of just 20 entrants. BOY, WAS I WRONG!

I sensed taking primarily Dogs & Road teams was risky, but other than sticking with my original pick on PIT as a Home Dog, I don't see any way I could've changed my picks. Even on that pick, how bad can I feel going with JAX when they led 28-10 in the 4Q? If they lost outright, it would've been the biggest 4Q comeback in playoff history. To lose by 1/2-pt was just heartbreaking.

As for the Skins +3.5, I think that if they made their 4Q chip shot FG when they were up 14-13 (& would've been covering by 7.5), the outcome could've easily been different, but that killed their momentum & seemed to take the life out of them. What a crazy 4Q full of emotionally draining swings for me. I consoled myself saying I would rather get my first loss early than late. From there, JAX -2.5 won but failed to cover (I wish they lost outright), so a tough day.

Sunday, Giants covered easily & I thought I had a chance to at least get back into contention if I could finish 2-2, but TEN +9.5 coughed up a 6-0 Halftime lead on their way to getting outscored 17-0 in the 2nd Half. Ironically, the way this game swung was almost a mirror image to the Redskins game, as TEN trailing 6-10 missed a short FG late that would've kept me within the pointspread.

I easily covered NYG +2.5 & was either leading or covering in the 4Q of ALL THREE of my losses. I still can't believe not a single one of those plays held up. I am stunned to be sitting at 1-3. VERY sad.

Well, for all practical purposes I am probably already out of contention for a prize. With only 11 games, I figured I needed 3-1 ATS the first week to be among the leaders & 2-2 at worst to be in contention. I'm guessing that 8-3 will likely win it & 7-4 may still get a prize, so I will bear down & at least keep trying. I am not mathematically out of it, but it's not looking good.

I sure hope the rest of you had a better weekend than me. Ugh, I still can't believe I looked forward to this chance for so long & dropped such an egg.

I'll still post my picks next week. I figure if I am going to humiliate myself, I might as well go down in flames.

WF

[plane-o-1]

Hang in there. It's an honor just to get the chance to compete.

[mark12]

Hey there is still lotto. Plane's right tough just to get there. Congrats.