My Week 3 NFL Preseason Picks

Rick · #1 08-26-2009, 03:59 PM

Thursday:
2* MIAMI +2.5 (-105) over Tampa Bay

Friday:
5* GREEN BAY +3 (+105) over Arizona

Saturday:
5* SAN FRANCISCO +7 (-115) over Dallas (Game-of-the-week)
5* BALTIMORE +3 (-105) over Carolina
5* SEATTLE +2.5 (-105) over Kansas City
2* NEW ORLEANS -1.5 over Oakland
2* UNDER 34 Baltimore/Carolina

Monday;
5* MINNESOTA +3 (-105) over Houston

I will have the rest of my writeups done sometime before game time. One writeup is done below......note that all lines are from Olympic

SAN FRANCISCO +7 over Dallas: Dallas comes in at 1-1 this preseason off a blowout 20 pt win over Tennessee, while San Francisco comes in at 2-0 straight-up, but losses against the number in both games. San Francisco’s running game has been superb in their two games thus far as they are averaging 206 rushing yards per game. Oakland already ran for 176 yards against Dallas earlier this preseason, and I fully expect San Francisco to have success in that area as well. On the flipside, don’t expect Dallas’ quarterbacks to complete 76% of their passes like they did against Tennessee here. That was a true anomaly, and I expect them to be back to reality here today. San Francisco also qualifies two very good preseason systems that are 66.7% (38-19 ATS) and 86.7% (13-2 ATS) since 1993, and they will also qualify in 14-0 ATS, 14-1 ATS, 12-1 ATS, and a 18-4 ATS angle as long as they remain +7 or more. I’ll play the Niners here to keep this one close if they don’t win straight-up.

junkiee24 · #2 08-26-2009, 04:16 PM

good luck rick.. with you on the fish tonight!

Rick · #3 08-26-2009, 05:11 PM

Thanks Junkiee.

Romanowski · #4 08-26-2009, 05:17 PM

gl on the picks rick

Rick · #5 08-26-2009, 05:34 PM

My Miami writeup for Thursday:

MIAMI: Miami has been a decent dog last few years going 10-5-1 ATS last 16 in the preseason dog role. They come in here off consecutive SU wins to start the preseason, and game 3 teams that are 2-0 are decent preseason plays in their dress rehearsal. Tampa Bay is making their first preseason appearance this season as a favorite after back-to-back dog games. They lost the first, and then squeaked by Jacksonville last game for a 1-pt win. Miami showed a nice balanced offensive attack last week with 141 yards rushing and 180 yards passing. I fully expect them to have success against a Tampa team that is rebuilding, and allowed 362 yards to Jacksonville. Miami’s starters will be on the field much of the game, and they played well last week so I expect them to improve on it today. Also notable is the fact that Tampa’s defense is again playing with Monte Kiffin as their long-time coordinator who is now at Tennessee. His presence will be missed by that defense, and it showed last week in their first true test. Throw in the fact that Miami qualifies in three preseason systems that are 13-2 ATS, 16-4 ATS, and 38-19-3 ATS, and we have a play.

Rick · #6 08-26-2009, 05:45 PM

My Friday play.....

Green Bay: This game pits the undefeated Packers against the winless Cards. Arizona’s offense has been nothing thus far scoring 10 and 6 pts respectively, and now they are laying points to a team that has scored 17 and 31 in their two games. I’ll take the stronger offense, especially given this being a strong technical play as Green Bay qualifies in a 14-1-1 ATS system, a 13-2 ATS system, a 16-4 ATS system, 21-5-2 ATS system, and a 38-19-3 ATS system. Arizona also qualifies in a decent 23-7-1 ATS system, but that is not as strong as the first four for Green Bay, so I am not too concerned.

Rick · #7 08-26-2009, 07:16 PM

BALTIMORE / BALTIMORE UNDER: Baltimore is 2-0 straight up this season off a 1-pt win over the Jets on Monday night. They are now road dogs, and 2-0 preseason teams have been strong plays in week 3. The Panthers have been horrible at 0-2, and their defense seems to be the problem as they have allowed 24 and 27 points respectively in their two games. Baltimore probably wants to work on their running game a little in this game after averaging just 87 yards rushing in their first two, and should have success against a Carolina defense that has allowed an average 140 yards rushing per game thus far (consistent too allowing 141 and 139 in their two games). Throw in a few solid systems that are 13-2 ATS, 21-5-2 ATS, 39-15-1 ATS, and 38-19-3 ATS, and we have a play on the Ravens. Additionally, playing the UNDER here as it qualifies in a decent 13-32 UNDER system that dates back to 1993.

Rick · #8 08-26-2009, 07:22 PM

SEATTLE: Again, we have a 2-0 team in week three, and it’s a situation where those teams have had success over the years. KC is a team that is not yet there offensively averaging 11.5 points per game thus far, and it will be hard for them to keep up with the high powered Seattle offense (averaging 23.5 points per game). There are also a number of systems that favor Seattle with those systems having records of 14-1-1 ATS, 21-5-2 ATS, and 38-19-3 ATS. I’ll take points here with the better team in their dress rehearsal.

Rick · #9 08-26-2009, 07:25 PM

NEW ORLEANS: New Orleans comes into their dress rehearsal as a road favorite off consecutive wins, the last a blowout win over Houston. Their quarterback rotation of Brunell, Brees, and Harrington is arguably the best of any preseason team. Throw in the production they have been getting on the ground (173 yards rushing versus Houston), and I expect them to put up a nice number against a Raiders team that allowed 275 rushing last week to San Francisco and 127 the week prior to Dallas. Oakland covered both those games ATS beating Dallas easily, and losing to San Francisco by just one point, but I don’t see them staying close in this one. New Orleans is 11-4 ATS last few years in preseason away games, and they are they also qualify in a couple strong preseason systems with records of 15-2 ATS and 38-19-3 ATS. I’ll ride the Saints here in game 3 despite their woes as preseason favorites last few years.

Rick · #10 08-26-2009, 08:52 PM

MINNESOTA: Again, we have a 2-0 team in week three, and it’s a situation where those teams have had success over the years. Minnesota’s defense has been superb thus far in the preseason allowing 3 and 13 pts respectively in their two games. This week, they face a Houston team that has been pretty much one dimensional through the air. On the ground they are averaging a mere 88 yards per game, and just 3.2 yards per rush. Their lack of a ground game has put a lot of pressure on their defense and it has shown as they have allowed an average 24 pts per game in their two preseason games, including 38 last week to New Orleans. Minnesota does also qualify in a solid 21-5-2 ATS preseason system, as well as a 38-19-3 ATS system, so I have no problem taking points with them here on Monday Night.