My Week 4 Preseason Plays

[Rick]

Note that all lines below are currently available at Olympic.

5* NEW ENGLAND +3 (-115) over NY Giants
5* DALLAS +3 (-120) over Minnesota
2* SAN FRANCISCO +4.5 (-115) over San Diego
2* DETROIT +3 (+100) over Buffalo
2* SEATTLE -3 (+100) over Oakland
2* PHILADELPHIA +3 (-125) over NY Jets
2* BALTIMORE +3 (-125) over Atlanta

Only doing write-ups this week on the two top plays this week……

NEW ENGLAND: We get the Patriots here as home dogs mainly because of the expectation that Brady will not play. However, let’s not forget that the Giants are not deep with talent at QB either and New England’s backups Andrew Walker and Brian Hoyer are fighting for the backup job so there is definitely something in it for both of them. The Giants come in off consecutive losses, including a home favorite loss last game to the Jets which puts them in a very negative 9-24 ATS preseason system, and they also qualify in a negative 4-28 ATS preseason system. That’s more than enough to make this a solid play in the final week of preseason.

Dallas: Dallas comes into their final preseason game off a straight-up loss to San Francisco as 6-pt favorites. They actually played well enough offensively with 377 total yards, but still came up short. Minnesota, meanwhile, has looked superb not only winning, but also covering all three games against the number. That said, they are up against it today. Dallas qualifies in a perfect 17-0 ATS preseason system, while the Vikings qualify in a negative 10-30 ATS angle. I’ll ride Dallas here to bounce-back from their week 3 loss to negate Minnesota’s chances of a 4-0 preseason.