Need some rational thoughts on Super bowl pick

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Since the line came out on Sunday, everything in me likes the Giants moneyline...i'm actually surprised the giants aren't favored in this game...they are clearly the best team overall...I don't feel that Billicheck is any better of a coach than Coughlin when it comes to playoff time...And I think fan support in Lucas Oil Stadium will be heavily pro giants.

Just every way I look at this game I like the G-men....There run they are on is exactly like GB last year...medicore regular season..great run to to get into playoffs..Then just dominate playoffs against tough teams...beat a pretty good atl team very easily...then as much as I hate to admit (as I'm a packer fan) they dominated us in Green Bay...Then winning last week in SF in weather that suited the 9ers....whereas the pats got a gift playing tebow 2nd round..then were outplayed by Balt, but the ravens gave them that game...so in my mind they still havent beaten a .500 or better team....

Plus giants already beat the pats in NE this year already....I just don't think pats match up with giants well...giants rush will have ways to getting to brady even with quick throws..plus linebackers and secondaries are physical enough to slow down the passing game...and on other side..manning should be able to throw all over the pats embarrasing secondary..with cruz, nicks, manningham....

Obviously I'm just stating the obvious here...this stuff everyone knows already...so I just need to know what am I missing? I'm thinking about making this the biggest bet I've ever made I'm that confident..Is this a mistake? I don't think I'm being too biased on this, as I'm not a giants fan in the least..

So unless you guys can fill me in with somehting i don't know and talk me out of loading up on this game..then

Giants (ml) is my Game of Year..Game of decade...whatever you wnat to call it..

[Mindsink]

Sometimes I find that my best plays are the ones I don't overanalyze. Your analysis is pretty sound. Sometimes a duck is a duck.

[JunkyardDog47]

The Pats have the best QB, the best HC, and revenge. You can aruge this game either way. The play is a middle, which you will be able to get in Vegas, but have to grab quickly. You will be able to get the Pats-2, and the Giants +3, maybe +3.5. Middle 3. Both games last week were decided by 3 points.

[aztriman]

It's amazing to me that the pats get no respect because their defense played badly this year. But, so did the giants d for most of the year. No doubt the giants are hot right now, but they got two huge gifts last week from a back up punt returner. How's that game end without those 2 flubbed punts. It ends with be beating sf; sited they'll beat the giants by 4. This is a prolific offense that is going to put up 35 points indoors with 2 weeks prep. Giants will score too, just not enough to keep up.

[Boris Karloff]

I would think 2 weeks prep normally evens things out. Extra time to look at extra possibilities for both coaches.

[Patriots Game]

Mhk.

[isklebibble]

Check this out and you will see why I like the Patriots...
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/26/sp...iants-win.html

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Originally Posted by JunkyardDog47

The Pats have the best QB, the best HC, and revenge. You can aruge this game either way. The play is a middle, which you will be able to get in Vegas, but have to grab quickly. You will be able to get the Pats-2, and the Giants +3, maybe +3.5. Middle 3. Both games last week were decided by 3 points.

True i know they're qb and coach are one of tops all time...But eli is playing just as well as any qb right now...hard to argue brady is better at the moment...sometimes have to go with the hot streak...manning has proven he steps up his game in big situations...like i mentioned before i think coughlin is a top tier coach as well...might sound dumb..but i put him up with billicheck...he out coached him last super bowl...and once earlier this year...you can't really argue revenge here...sure i would understand a revenge spot in a regular season game..where the pats would be jacked on revenge and might want the win more than the giants (although once again that didn't help earlier this year)..but this is the super bowl..giants will have no problems matching the pats taste of revenge....

however you make solid point about middle..and something i should consider...but like i said in original post...i think wrong team is favored...so that would rule the middle out for the giants win...but like you said you can argue the game either way..and i guess my stance isn't changing..and im not trying to change anyone elses opinions..guess just talking this thing out loud to myslf

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Originally Posted by isklebibble

Check this out and you will see why I like the Patriots...
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/26/sp...iants-win.html

Yeah i've been following the story to man...vegas been sweating after that gb win...never would they think the giants would make this push..

but i don't see how this story affects this game..yeah vegas would be crushed if this happens..but this is the super bowl...vegas will have no affect on the play of this game..no paid off refs..if that's what you are referring too...they would have made that move before this big game...in gb or sf...lets not start with a conspriacy theory

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Originally Posted by aztriman

It's amazing to me that the pats get no respect because their defense played badly this year. But, so did the giants d for most of the year. No doubt the giants are hot right now, but they got two huge gifts last week from a back up punt returner. How's that game end without those 2 flubbed punts. It ends with be beating sf; sited they'll beat the giants by 4. This is a prolific offense that is going to put up 35 points indoors with 2 weeks prep. Giants will score too, just not enough to keep up.

i don't think the pats could ever say the get no respect...please...i think the only reason they are favored is because its the patriots.."the dynasty of last decade"...and its not that i don't respect their team..i know all about brady, gronk, hernandez, and that system..they are great...but overall their team talent is not up there with all these other playoff teams..thats why i think you have everyone on here talking down about them every week...no way you can say they have better overall team then half the playoff teams this year..and that shows when you see their record against winning teams...

as far as giants giving up 35 points and not keeping up..i think last super bowl it was low scoring..and i would think the offense was better that year..and they don't even put up 35 earlier this year either..i think giants dictate tempo.

do agree giants caught break with sf punt returner..and honestly i bet sf last week...and thought i got screwed all week..but thinking back..they were the better team..they moved the ball more..sf only scored on 2 great plays by davis...

these just my opinions anyway..like everyone said both teams get 2 weeks 2 prepare...so anything can happen..i might be way off here...who knows

[resteasy]

Originally Posted by aztriman

It's amazing to me that the pats get no respect because their defense played badly this year. But, so did the giants d for most of the year. No doubt the giants are hot right now, but they got two huge gifts last week from a back up punt returner. How's that game end without those 2 flubbed punts. It ends with be beating sf; sited they'll beat the giants by 4. This is a prolific offense that is going to put up 35 points indoors with 2 weeks prep. Giants will score too, just not enough to keep up.

Pats are favored how is that not respect?

Giants earned the respect they are getting over the past couple weeks defeating the top 2 teams in the nfl in their own backyards. No doubt there.

The backup punter gave them 1 gift. The other was a great play by the defense to knock the ball out. No respect to the D. Just as the pats defensive player doesn't get the respect for knocking the ball out of Evan's hands.

Giants D was certainly week regular season letting up a lot of points but when they played the Pats mid season they kept tom brady to Zero points first half.

The packers were a prolific offense and they stopped them. The niners were the best defense in the nfl and they beat them. Eli had over 300yds 2td 0int against that defense.

I'm a Giants fan but with my money I'm objective. If I didn't like the Giants here I'd go for the O/U. But I really like the chances.
Giants know that they can get to brady and that if they do he'll make mistakes.
Eli was knocked down hard a lot last week but got back up and made plays.
More weapons at WR for the giants.
Gronk will be playing with that ankle that could effect him so that hurts the pats having one less explosive player.

My only worries are the 2 weeks. I hope the giants don't get cocky, don't let this talk get to their heads. But coughlin is pretty good at keeping them focused.

Not sure how the line will move. The niners game opened at 3.5 also and ended at sf-2. Could be the same here. Of course if it drops below 3 I could also imagine money coming in on pats and bringing this back up to 3 as the final line.

[Mindsink]

Originally Posted by isklebibble

Check this out and you will see why I like the Patriots...
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/26/sp...iants-win.html

I happen to be one of those people who grabbed the Giants at 20-1.

[Pic n Locs]

Seem fairly event when dissecting the facts....

The Patriots have one of the league’s worst defenses and have blown away mediocre teams all season. Their two toughest opponents, the Giants and Steelers, both beat the Patriots and are the only teams they faced that ended up with winning records.

Clearly this past weekend was the exception but I don t know...Did NWE win it or did the RAVENS lose it. I'll side with the latter...It s fairly easy to make a case looking at the results. Baltimore out preformed NWE in every FACET of the game. However, the pnts at the end r what matters, so it goes....

Regarding NWE/GMEN matchup:

We just saw a team equal to the Patriots with offensive dominance and similar weaknesses on defense, the Packers, get manhandled at home by the Giants. Defense is proving to be a key cog in football once again, despite being proved wrong all season by dominant offenses rolling through the season with ease.

[isklebibble]

Originally Posted by fadeaway

Yeah i've been following the story to man...vegas been sweating after that gb win...never would they think the giants would make this push..

but i don't see how this story affects this game..yeah vegas would be crushed if this happens..but this is the super bowl...vegas will have no affect on the play of this game..no paid off refs..if that's what you are referring too...they would have made that move before this big game...in gb or sf...lets not start with a conspriacy theory

All that I am simply stating is the fact that no matter what... the odds are always in the house's favor... No matter what type of gambling it is.... If Vegas needs the Pats to win...that is who I am betting...(unless Lang and Indian Cowboy are both on the Pats)...

[isklebibble]

Originally Posted by Pic n Locs

Seem fairly event when dissecting the facts....

The Patriots have one of the league’s worst defenses and have blown away mediocre teams all season. Their two toughest opponents, the Giants and Steelers, both beat the Patriots and are the only teams they faced that ended up with winning records.

Clearly this past weekend was the exception but I don t know...Did NWE win it or did the RAVENS lose it. I'll side with the latter...It s fairly easy to make a case looking at the results. Baltimore out preformed NWE in every FACET of the game. However, the pnts at the end r what matters, so it goes....

Regarding NWE/GMEN matchup:

We just saw a team equal to the Patriots with offensive dominance and similar weaknesses on defense, the Packers, get manhandled at home by the Giants. Defense is proving to be a key cog in football once again, despite being proved wrong all season by dominant offenses rolling through the season with ease.

Just like Momma used to say...."if it makes sense...you must bet against"....GO PATS!!!!!