NFL Chase, profitable or bankrupt?

[SI5]

Considering taking one of these 5 good teams and trying a little chase. Leaning towards these teams...

Patriots
Cowboys
Colts
Ravens
Packers

Probably wouldn't want to chase more than 3 games... Betting that this team doesn't start 0-3 versus spread & make a quick dime

$1000 game one
$2000 game two if needed
$4000 game three if needed

Is it absurd to risk a possible $7,000 only to make a dime? I couldn't possibly go to game four so I would be screwed after game three if they went 0-3.

[d107]

IMO, Even if it made sense I would not use those teams because all 5 of those will be public heavy teams with inflated spreads

[SI5]

That is a good point.. I have $7,000 max to risk this NFL season. My plan was to make a quick dime, put the $7,000 back and see what I can turn the dime into.

[d107]

The risk is not worth the reward but thats just me

[Seanie Mac]

Is it ML or Spread?

Anyway risking 7k to win 1k is a great ROI anyway, many people would kill to be able to make 1k for every 7k risked

[Slammer]

This probably shouldn't be tried at all, unless you can really live with the possibility of losing $7,000 in three weeks, don't think it could never happen.

If one of those good teams above happens to start badly out of nowhere, ie Tennessee Titans last year, you will be toast because the spreads will not reflect their current level of play, there is a lag time of people not adjusting quickly to the idea that a team is actually playing poorly.

Such a system would have a better chance of working with bad teams that no one likes to bet on, getting some bonus points on the spread will eventually help turn a loss into a win.

It's still a risky idea though, failing to cover three spreads in a row isn't uncommon.

[Grizzly]

Originally Posted by d107

IMO, Even if it made sense I would not use those teams because all 5 of those will be public heavy teams with inflated spreads

Such a system would have a better chance of working with bad teams that no one likes to bet on, getting some bonus points on the spread will eventually help turn a loss into a win.

Agreed. Especially after the books couldn't get numbers high enough for a good portion of last season and were taking a bath on public favorites. They will have the numbers up off the bat this season and will adjust quickly if they see it happening again.

[uva3021]

losing one series and you lose 3K

[uva3021]

roughly 13% chance of losing each series, and roughly 37% of losing at least one of the five

with each chase the expected loss is equivalent to 8%,