***NFL Computer Picks*** Week 8 Oct 26

[MR_MJ]

Week 8...and the lines are really tight in my opinion.

The computer sees a lot of indicators for a sloppy underperforming game between St. Louis and New England. Nice value on the under there according to the computer.

If the Jets and KC both play to form covering the 14 won't be hard at all for the Jets. I really do not like to lay this kind of wood...believe me. But as strange as it sounds...at least according to the computer...this is still one of the best values available this week. I'm going to trust the computer again but I will admit it doesn't feel quite right laying all that wood.

The computer also picks a rare Monday night game. The computer does not like Monday night games. Because of the extra emotion of the national spotlight..Monday night games are harder for the computer to handicap. It's just much easier to identify emotional angles in the games that fly under the radar. But, this is a bit of a strange week...so Tennesee still comes up as one of the best values. The danger here is that its a statement game for Indy...their backs against the wall. The computer thinks Tennessee still beats them in the trenches with a physical game. Indy is still getting too much love for their past years performance...they just aren't the same team right now.

As a coach...I love Fischer. I'm comfortable that he smells blood and knows they can take no prisoners in this game. That makes me feel better about the -4. This is a great Monday night matchup...it is great to have one as a computer pick.

Also, I think the ML is a great option here. But I will only play the points here for record keeping.

St. Louis / NE Under 43

NY Jets -14

Tennessee -4

Good luck! I'm not suggesting caution...but I wouldn't go crazy this week either.

Computer Pick 3 Record
14-6-1 70.00% +$3700

[Jhawk221]

How does a computer guage the emotion of a primetime game?

[MR_MJ]

Originally Posted by Jhawk221

How does a computer guage the emotion of a primetime game?

Lets just say there are things I would consider laws of human nature.

There are predictable ways in which humans react to certain situations.

Stats and situations are converted into numbers...and the computer reads those for an emotional reading on a game or matchup.

Certain levels of emotional readings have proven to beat the spread, consistently.

[weazel079]

Good luck with the computer picks. Didn't your computer do very well in the NBA last year? Think I remember seeing your NBA picks at another forum.

[NFLMAN]

Do you load the data into this computer?

[MR_MJ]

Originally Posted by weazel079

Good luck with the computer picks. Didn't your computer do very well in the NBA last year? Think I remember seeing your NBA picks at another forum.

It did well...40-20 for the year...but that was the first year. Maybe it was just lucky.

I don't expect to do that well...especially in NBA.

[MR_MJ]

Originally Posted by NFLMAN

Do you load the data into this computer?

Yes.

[NFLMAN]

Do you do any injury tracking? I do it, but only in my head.

Teams without their leading rusher are 1-9 ATS this year

Teams with one starting defensive lineman out 1-7 ATS this year

Teams with a returning starter at QB are 10-1 ATS

Teams with returning starters at other skill positions 0-6 ATS

I am almost positive there is one going on with teams without their top cornerback this year that has got to be approx. 0-10 ATS it's difficult to keep track of so much mentally.

I think that this method is superior to the data mining of stats.

[PAPPAGIORGIO]

Look good again this week. Im on board.

[MR_MJ]

Originally Posted by NFLMAN

Do you do any injury tracking? I do it, but only in my head.

Teams without their leading rusher are 1-9 ATS this year

Teams with one starting defensive lineman out 1-7 ATS this year

Teams with a returning starter at QB are 10-1 ATS

Teams with returning starters at other skill positions 0-6 ATS

I am almost positive there is one going on with teams without their top cornerback this year that has got to be approx. 0-10 ATS it's difficult to keep track of so much mentally.

I think that this method is superior to the data mining of stats.

The system doesn't do any injury tracking. I allow myself to over rule the computer for a very special situation.

I try not to do that however...or else you are back to handicapping instead of letting the computer do it.

But if the QB is out and the backup isn't very good...or if there is a rash of injury like Seattle had...then I would be stupid to just let the pick ride anyway.

But in most cases...I have alway ignored injuries. I think bettors exaggerate the result of injuries on Professional teams.

If anything you get line value for this. Thats been my experience.

Pro's usually step up and perform when needed...and often they can bring a wrinkle to the game that the other team hasn't had a chance to scout or scheme for.

[MR_MJ]

The computer comes through with Tennessee -4.

Another winning week...and a damn tough week to cap the NFL.

St. Louis / NE Under 43 W

NY Jets -14 L

Tennessee -4 W

[bigtom]

another winning week. congrats