NFL - Handicapping the Rules

[theoddsfather]

The great majority of so-called sharp players prognosticated that due to the lockout and the changes to the kickoff that there would be a lot of games going under the totals the first few weeks of the season. This was not the case as 72% of games went over the posted total in the first two weeks of the NFL season.

The same so-called sharp players said well don't worry these numbers will come back to the norm. Yet on Sunday alone in week 3 of the NFL season 11 QB's threw for over 300 yards and 15 receivers had over 100 yards receiving.
While so many people have focused on the affect of the kickoff rule, they have ignored the more important rule changes made every single off season which continue to protect the quarterbacks and receivers. There are so many newer rules regarding a defender's ability to touch a receiver that receivers are able to get better seperation and quarterbacks, who are being protected by rule changes are able to stand in the pocket with more confidence and deliver to open guys.

It is important as a player to watch rule changes and the effects they have not just in the first few games following but in the following seasons. As teams, coaches, and players become more adept with the rules changes protecting their receivers and QB's the offenses are getting better and better. This also has had negating effect on teams whose sucess is based around stuffing the run. Many teams are now playing more than 50% of their plays out of the shotgun and using a short passing game instead of running on early downs.

The point is the most sucessful handicappers will carefully watch all the changes to the rules every season and the effect they will have. While the kickoff rule got lots of media hype, the small changes they make to the defenders ability to touch receivers and to protect QB's are having a more profound effect on the game.