NFL O/U Wins Futures - Study aid

[Romanowski]

Teams that won 10+ games last year (Ten, Ind, Car, Pit, NYG, NE, Mia, Bal, Atl, Min)

Every year, there are at least 2 teams who win 10+ games and win 5 or less the next year.

Every year, there is at least 1 team who wins 10+ games and then wins 4 or less the next year.

Teams that won 12+ games last year (Ten, Ind, Car, Pit, NYG)

Every year, there is at least 1 team who wins 12+ games and then wins 8 or less the next year.

Teams that won 5 or less games last year (Det, Stl, KC, Cin, Sea, Cle, Jac, Oak)

Every year, there is at least 1 team who wins 5 or less games and then wins 10 games the next year.

Teams that increased their win total in each of the past 2 seasons (Ten, Min, NYG, Pit, Oak, Ari)

Tennessee (2005-present) is the only team to increase its win total for 3 consecutive seasons.

There have been 8 other teams to increase their win total for 2 consecutive seasons, but each failed to do it for a third.


Teams that decreased their win total in each of the past 2 seasons (SD, Cin, KC, Stl)


Only Cincinnati (2005-present), Kansas City (2005-present) and Atlanta (2004-2007) have decreased their win total for 3 consecutive seasons. There have been 13 other teams to decrease their win total for 2 consecutive seasons, but each failed to do it for a third.

Teams that increased their win total by 3 or more games from last season (Mia – 10, Atl – 7, Bal – 6, Car – 5, NYJ – 5, Ten – 3)

Of the 46 teams that have won 3 or more games from their prior year total, only 6 of them (13%) increased their win total again the following year.

Of the 19 teams that won 5 or more games from their prior year total, only 1 went on to increase their win total in the following year (Chicago went from 5 to 11 to 13 from 2004-2006).

Of those same 19 teams, 15 of them actually saw their win total go down by at least 3 games in the following year.

Of the 10 that won 6 or more games from their prior year total, 8 of them saw their win total go down by at least 3 games the following year. 5 of the 10 saw their win total go down by at least 4 games.

Teams that decreased their win total by 3 or more games from last season (Det – 7, GB – 7, Sea – 6, Jac – 6, Cle – 6, NE – 5, Dal – 4, SD – 3, Cin – 3)

Of the 47 teams that decreased their win total by at least 3 games from the prior season, 33 (70%) bounced back and increased their win total the following season.

Of the 12 teams that decreased their win total by at least 6 games from the prior season, 7 (58%) increased their win total by at least 4 games the following season.

On average, there are 5 teams each year to win at least 12 games
On average, there are 7 teams each year to win at least 11 games
On average, there are 10 teams each year to win at least 10 games
On average, there are 5 teams each year to win 4 or less games
On average, there are 8 teams each year to win 5 or less games
On average, there are 10 teams each year to win 6 or less games
On average, there are 11 teams each year to win between 7 and 9 games


Consider the following table, which summarizes the number of occurrences of a win total and the average win total the following year. This just supports the fact that there are surprises every year – for example, teams that won 6 games have a better historical performance in the subsequent season than teams that won 13 games.

Number of wins......Occurrences.....Average wins the next year
16...........................1.................... ...11.0
15...........................1 .......................11.0
14...........................4 .......................11.8
13...........................9.................... ....7.8
12..........................12.................... ..10.6
11..........................12.................... ...7.8
10..........................24.................... ...7.8
9............................22................... ....8.5
8............................22................... ....8.3
7............................21................... ...7.0
6............................17................... ....8.2
5............................19................... ...7.2
4............................19................... ...7.2
3.............................4................... ....6.0
2.............................4................... ....5.5
1.............................1................... ...11.0

[Bisket]

doesnt look good for indy tenn miami and giants

[Ricky Tan]

THANKS FOR POSTING Romanowski

[ZoomVT]

Nice info romo. Good luck!

[TheLink]

good info Romo. I think Tennessee is the team that wins 5 or less out of that group.

[fat-freddie]

Thanks for the post Romo, good stuff man

[capperdan]

go lions!

[GatorMike]

Great stuff Romo!

[Steel]

Good info Romo, can you post some more so I can start my book for the season.

[BigdaddyQH]

Very intersting Romo, but still very general. What I would like to see is a pattern from a team. Baltimore seems to be the biggest yoyo, with records of 6-10, 13-4, 5-11, 11-5 in the past 4 years. The Jets are 4-12, 10-6, 4-12, 9-7. Jags are 12-4, 8-8, 11-5, 5-11. No one else is close.