NFL Playoff Scenarios, Week 17

[Lukester]

There are an astounding number of 2010 NFL playoff scenarios that could still play out -- including all four first-round games being rematches from Week 17 -- despite the season being down to its final Sunday.

The top four seeds in the AFC are set, and very little movement can take place there. A look at the AFC's division winners:

Indianapolis Colts (14-1)
- Have clinched AFC's No. 1 seed

San Diego Chargers (12-3)
- Have clinched AFC's No. 2 seed

New England Patriots (10-5)
- Can clinch No. 3 seed with: Win over Houston OR Cincinnati loss to Jets

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5)
- Can clinch No. 3 seed with: Win over Jets AND New England loss to Houston


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The situation is infinitely more complicated in terms of the AFC's two wild-card spots. Seven AFC teams will enter Week 17 with an opportunity to claim a wild-card berth, though the Jets and Ravens control their destinies. Here's how each remaining team could make the postseason:

New York Jets (8-7)
- Win over Bengals

Baltimore Ravens (8-7)
- Win over Raiders

Denver Broncos (8-7)
- Win over Chiefs plus losses by at least two of the following: Baltimore (at Oakland), Jets (vs. Cincinnati), Pittsburgh (at Miami)

- Win over Chiefs plus Jets loss AND wins by Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Houston (vs. New England)

- Win over Chiefs plus Houston win AND loss by either Baltimore or Jets

- Loss to Chiefs plus Pittsburgh loss AND losses by at least three of the following: Baltimore, Houston, Jacksonville and Jets

- Loss to Chiefs plus losses by Baltimore, Houston, Jacksonville and Jets

Houston Texans (8-7)
- Win over Patriots plus losses by at least two of the following: Baltimore, Jets, Denver

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
- Win over Dolphins plus losses by at least two of the following: Baltimore, Jets, Houston

- Win over Dolphins plus losses by Denver (vs. Kansas City), Baltimore and Jets

Miami Dolphins (7-8)
- Win over Steelers plus losses by Baltimore, Jets, Houston and Jacksonville (at Cleveland)

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8)
- Win over Browns plus Pittsburgh loss AND losses by at least three of the following: Baltimore, Jets, Houston, Denver

- Win over Browns plus losses by Baltimore, Jets, Houston and Denver


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There are no wild-card spots still up for grabs in the NFC -- Dallas' win at Washington Sunday night eliminated the Giants from contention and locked in the conference's top six. That said, there are still plenty of scenarios for Week 17 that would shift seeding in the NFC:

New Orleans Saints (13-2)
- Have clinched NFC's No. 1 seed

Philadelphia Eagles (11-4)
- Can clinch NFC East and No. 2 seed with win at Dallas

Minnesota Vikings (11-4)
- Can clinch No. 2 seed with win over Giants AND Philadelphia loss

Arizona Cardinals (10-5)
- Can clinch No. 2 seed with win over Green Bay plus Minnesota loss AND Philadelphia loss

- Can clinch No. 3 seed with win over Green Bay AND Dallas win

Green Bay Packers (10-5)
- Can clinch No. 5 seed with win over Arizona OR Philadelphia win

Dallas Cowboys (10-5)
- Can clinch NFC East with win over Philadelphia

- Can clinch No. 2 seed with win over Philadelphia plus Minnesota loss AND Arizona loss

- Can clinch No. 3 seed with win over Philadelphia AND Arizona loss

[Lukester]

I haven't checked all the teams yet but the WGN Redskins have a chance to play spoiler again in the last week, just like last week.

[Lukester]

Originally Posted by Lukester

I haven't checked all the teams yet but the WGN Redskins have a chance to play spoiler again in the last week, just like last week.

...that game is @ SD.

TB off B2B Road SU wins after a very difficult season. This team has now turned around and is setting a mindful cast of a winning attitude for next year. This week vs ATL. Watch out Falcons--the Bucs won't let themselves be scavenged on by this predator. I like TB here.

[Lukester]

In similar fashion as the above, CARO is off 2 big SU wins and NWO off 2 SU losses. I would play on CARO at home at the last minute should NWO decide to play with backups @ Carolina. They will let fate decide.

[Lukester]

(not a playoff scenario game) but can't wait to see the IND @ BUF spread line.

Good possibility BUF W outright as a slight fav or dog. Wouldn't play them on more than a TD.

Here's my stupid reasoning: We've already had a clue that P Manning will be rested this week as a continuation of last Sunday's rest. But get this...we all know they lost on purpose BECAUSE...remember when the Patriots went 16-0 and L the SB to NY? That's how superstitious sports players and even coaches (especially in this particular case) are. IND decided to give up on the 16-0 season to W the SB instead?

Yes. I like BUF this Week!

[Lukester]

(another non-playoff game)...TN @ SEA

I'm going with TN here. They L LW big time against one of the leagues best team in SD--so no shame in that.

TN's D should be sufficient to hold the Hawks to less than 17 to finish off the season. They are 7-2 since their Bye and will continue on that track and set a road for next season...so now it's back on track

Gotta love the Titans here as SEA off 3 straight losses.

[The Nac]

Not sure why you guys have Denver needing Balty to lose when NFL.com shows Denver in and Balty out right now, and they have same record. Did you guys mess something up, or is that website wrong?

[Lukester]

Originally Posted by The Nac

Not sure why you guys have Denver needing Balty to lose when NFL.com shows Denver in and Balty out right now, and they have same record. Did you guys mess something up, or is that website wrong?

Well, seems like everybody that breaks down scenarios have at least something different from another. Thats why there's so many out there. I took the first one which normally means is "better" but could still be missing on something.

[keyser soze]

Originally Posted by The Nac

Not sure why you guys have Denver needing Balty to lose when NFL.com shows Denver in and Balty out right now, and they have same record. Did you guys mess something up, or is that website wrong?

What's confusing you right now is you are worrying about the seeding, AS IT STANDS TODAY. (This happens to be meaningless) The reason Denver NEEDS Baltimore to lose is because Baltimore owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over them (from beating them 30-7 earlier in the year). So if Baltimore wins, even if Denver wins themselves, Baltimore is in and Denver is out.

As another example, right now the Jets are listed as the #6 seed on NFL.com. However, if the Jets beat the Bengals this Sunday night, they will automatically clinch the 5th seed and the Bengals will automatically be the 4th seed. The point is, a lot changes with that last game (things like conference record, common opponents, strength of victory, etc)

[The Nac]

Originally Posted by keyser soze

What's confusing you right now is you are worrying about the seeding, AS IT STANDS TODAY. (This happens to be meaningless) The reason Denver NEEDS Baltimore to lose is because Baltimore owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over them (from beating them 30-7 earlier in the year). So if Baltimore wins, even if Denver wins themselves, Baltimore is in and Denver is out.

As another example, right now the Jets are listed as the #6 seed on NFL.com. However, if the Jets beat the Bengals this Sunday night, they will automatically clinch the 5th seed and the Bengals will automatically be the 4th seed. The point is, a lot changes with that last game (things like conference record, common opponents, strength of victory, etc)

That's exactly what it was. Just kept looking at the current seeind thinking if all the same teams won, nothing would change. Thanks for clearing that up, keyser.