NFL season totals predictions - post yours

[Dr. Jack]

Now that preseason is nearing the end you changed your mind about season win totals

All odds from the greek

The ones I am leaning the best are bold

Arizona Cardinals regular season wins
Over 8 reg season wins 105
Under 8 reg season wins -125

Atlanta Falcons regular season wins
Over 4½ reg season wins -130
Under 4½ reg season wins 110

Baltimore Ravens regular season wins
Over 6 reg seaon wins -120
Under 6 reg seaon wins 100

Buffalo Bills regular season wins
Over 8 reg season wins 100
Under 8 reg season wins -120

Carolina Panthers regular season wins
Over 7½ reg season wins -170
Under 7½ reg season wins 150

Chicago Bears regular season wins
Over 8 reg season wins 140
Under 8 reg season wins -160

Cincinnati Bengals regular season wins
Over 7½ reg season wins 115
Under 7½ reg season wins -135

Cleveland Browns regular season wins
Over 8 reg season wins -125
Under 8 reg season wins 105

Dallas Cowboys regular season wins
Over 10½ reg season wins -140
Under 10½ reg season wins 120

Denver Broncos regular season wins
Over 7½ reg season wins -170
Under 7½ reg season wins 150

Detroit Lions regular season wins
Over 6½ reg season wins -115
Under 6½ reg season wins -105

Green Bay Packers regular season wins
Over 8 reg season wins -130
Under 8 reg season wins 110

Houston Texans regular season wins
Over 7½ reg season wins -120
Under 7½ reg season wins 100

Indianapolis Colts regular season wins
Over 11 reg season wins 140
Under 11 reg season wins -160

Jacksonville Jaguars regular season wins
Over 10 reg season wins -110
Under 10 reg season wins -110

Kansas City Chiefs regular season wins
Over 6 reg season wins -105
Under 6 reg season wins -115

Miami Dolphins regular season wins
Over 5½ reg season wins 100
Under 5½ reg season wins -120

Minnesota Vikings regular season wins
Over 8½ reg season wins -140
Under 8½ reg season wins 120

New England Patriots regular season wins
Over 12½ reg season wins 100
Under 12½ reg season wins -120

New Orleans Saints regular season wins
Over 8½ reg season wins -160
Under 8½ reg season wins 140

New York Giants regular season wins
Over 9 reg season wins 115
Under 9 reg season wins -135

New York Jets regular season wins
Over 8 reg season wins -140
Under 8 reg season wins 120

Philadelphia Eagles regular season wins
Over 8½ reg season wins -170
Under 8½ reg season wins 150

Pittsburgh Steelers regular season wins
Over 9 reg season wins 100
Under 9 reg season wins -120

Oakland Raiders regular season wins
Over 6½ reg season wins 140
Under 6½ reg season wins -160

San Diego Chargers regular season wins
Over 10½ reg season wins -170
Under 10½ reg season wins 150

Seattle Seahawks regular season wins
Over 8½ reg season wins -170
Under 8½ reg season wins 150

San Francisco 49ers regular season wins
Over 6½ reg season wins 110
Under 6½ reg season wins -130

St Louis Rams regular season wins
Over 6½ reg season wins -105
Under 6½ reg season wins -115

Tampa Bay Buccaneers regular season wins
Over 8 reg season wins -130
Under 8 reg season wins 110

Tennessee Titans regular season wins
Over 8 reg season wins 110
Under 8 reg season wins -130

Washington Redskins regular season wins
Over 8 reg season wins 130
Under 8 reg season wins -150

[BigdaddyQH]

San Diego Over 10 1/2 is giving away money.

[Gerk]

The juice is horrific, but unless there's some big injuries, don't know how Carolina doesn't win at least 10 games looking at their schedule

Agree on Chicago under 8

Think Minny wins 10

Think Seattle goes 8-8 or 7-9 so like the under there, Very competitive division with no team dominant

[Kramer]

Without posting any predictions ,
this may help in your decision making process
Dr Jack :

first lets calculate the "expected value"
of your highlighted odds :
Arizona over 8 +105
this is a 50/50 bet
Ari under -125 = .8units back (100/125)
62% to B/E (50%)
The books have set the odds more of a chance in the under .


we can scientifically figure out the value of a bet, as long as we come up with assumptions for probable outcomes.


All we need to do is make our estimates for % chance of each

chicago under 8 -160
you'd win .625 of a unit ( $100/$160) assuming you wager $ 100 , not $ 160 to get $100
even if you wager $160 , you get back $100 so you'd still win .625 of 1 - $100 unit
you'd need 80% chance of probability going under to reach
50% value ... Do you see the chance this high ?
or 20% chance of being over ?

Dallas over 10.5 means 11 -140
.71 units back
70% chance to get to 50%
the under is .83 units, you'd need 60% chance to reach 50%


Detroit =-115 .87 units need 58%

Houston over 7.5 -120
.83 units = 60%
St.L. under 7 :
-115 = .87 units = 58%

summary :
Ari under -125 : 62%
Houston at -120 , 60% chance is better "value"
than Dallas -140 , 70% chance (you're paying 20% more with 10% increased chance)
Chicago -160 -80% chance pretty high odds ,

[JETMAN]

JETS WERE AT LIKE 7 BEFORE BRETT,EASY OVER 8,LOVE THE BENGALS OVER ALSO

[xxxFTWxxx]

I am heavy on Jets over 7

I think over 8 is an ok bet, at worst a push... but I mean mine is REALLY at worst a push.

[harley and gabe]

new england under

[putt4dough]

Atlanta under
Dallas over
Carolina over
KC will be a house winner because they will win 6

[paksuk]

Atlanta O4.5
Chicago O8
Dallas O10.5
N.O O8.5
Minny O8.5

Chicago and Minny fight it out for the NFC North. Being a homer I have Bears going 9-7 - 10-6.

[Bobtheicon]

Pats over - going undefeated again. Think the Rams can win 7 too.

[Da Fanatic]

Got on Under 8 Bears at -130 two weeks ago in Vegas. This is gonna be a disaster.

[WildKat]

SAINTS OVER 8.5 IS FRENCH DIP LOCK OF THE YEAR!!!!! I agree!

[BigdaddyQH]

How about Minny Over 8 1/2, though not my much. That could be a 9 win divisional champion, like the NFC West.

[Gobbler's Knob]

The juice is crazy on the overs this year in both NFL and college. Going to have to play under some totals or nothing at all.

[williemaq]

San Francisco 49ers regular season wins
Over 6½ reg season wins 110