NFL Top Plays Week 11

[Johnny Bawls]

Laying the line with 2 double digit favorites. 2-1 L3 NFL!!!!!

Baltimore -10 @ Carolina

If you have followed me this season, you know that I recognized Carolina as a poor team early in the year. Carolina is now being lead by rookie QB Jimmy Clausen, who has a 48% completion percentage with a 1:4 INT:TD ratio. Carolina averages a league worst 250 total offensive yards per game. Now that starting QB Moore and RB DeAngelo Williams have been placed on IR, don’t expect this struggling offense to do any better. Also, RB Stewart missed last week’s game with concussion symptoms and is questionable in this one. Carolina is 32nd in passing yards and 24th in rushing yards. Carolina is only averaging 4.1 ypp while Baltimore is averaging 5.2 ypp. Statistically, Carolina has a good pass defense (5th overall) allowing 195 yards per game. This stat is skewed because most teams are playing Carolina from ahead and choosing to run the ball against Carolina's 27th ranked rushing defense. Clausen will struggle against Baltimore’s many blitz packages. Expect Baltimore’s offense to play with short fields and pound the ball on ground. Baltimore comes in off a tough loss at Atlanta last Thursday night, giving them added time for preparation. Carolina is averaging only 12 ppg this year and they will have trouble reaching 10 in this game. Baltimore should have no problem putting up 21 points to cover this line, as Flacco has thrown 14 TD’s and only 2 INT’s in this last 7 games.
Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

New Orleans -11.5 vs. Seattle

I am going to lay points with another double digit favorite this week. I’ll take NO to cover because of their defense. Seattle is struggling in every category this year and doesn’t match up well going to New Orleans. New Orleans is out-gaining opponents by 95 ypg, while Seattle is being out-gained by 91 ypg. New Orleans ranks 3rd in total defense only allowing 4.8ypp (tied 2nd.) Not good for a Seattle offense that ranks 29th in total offense and yards per play (4.8). Hasselbeck has struggled this year throwing 7 TD’s and 7 INT’s. Hasselbeck has only had 1 game with more than 1 TD thrown, that was week 1 against SF. The crowd at the Superdome won’t make it any easier, and I expect a day with a negative TD:INT ratio against the league’s number 1 rated passing defense. New Orleans’ offense is not a prolific as it was last year but they are averaging 5.5 ypp good enough for 8th. Brees has thrown multiple TD’s in each of his last 5 games and Reggie Bush should be returning this week, giving them a much welcomed threat from the backfield. If we take away last week’s game against Arizona, Seattle had been beaten by 30 and 34 points the previous 2 weeks while being out-gained by 300+ yards in each of those games. New Orleans will benefit from turnovers and put up enough points to cover at home.
Seahawks are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.