((((( nfl turkey week 12 with the rookiee ))))

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

thanksgiving game 1

4**** under chase play to win 1 half

leg a ~~ under 28 1h gb/det

[LordCC]

Good luck Rookie!

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

3**** under chase to win 1 half ~~ LEG A mia/dallas under 22.5 1h

Not going to think too much into this one being that if you have been an under player with miami this season, you have been pocketing serious cash as they have gone under 8 out of 10 games this season.... you would think the oddsmakers have adjusted their lines but they have gone under an amazing 16 times out of 20 halfs this year....throw in the fact that they have gone under 8 out of 10 halfs this season on the road, while dallas has had an under half in each of their 5 home games.... this should be a no brainer, but ill tread lightly due to the fact of which romo will show up and miami's current momentum on their 3 game win streak

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

Originally Posted by THE_ROOKIEEE

thanksgiving game 1

4**** under chase play to win 1 half

leg a ~~ under 28 1h gb/det

[chumly77]

ya i have under 23 dallas lean on fins+4 ALSO

[CZAR]

hey rookie do u liek san diego today,,i really like emm ,,,,

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

yesterday was a day i will never forget as i forced myself to find a few games in the morning and tipped my units for the year quite a bit..... i will NEVER do that again .... i think BSU said it pretty simple with money management.... i kinda felt like that one hand in poker you knew not to go after ~~ yet you still did and it cost you the tourney.... LESSON LEARNED, HAND SLAPPED, MOVE ON !!! I ALWAYS STAND UP REAL QUICK !!


I not going to overthink on this one, just like i said in the miami game on thursday.... but i have to admit after yesterday it almost had me thinking differently on this game with those what IFS on my shoulder and in the back of my mind... i will back off on putting that GOY CHASE PLAY just because of my own reasons..... but i am going with how i handicapped this game and not change my thinking because of one day ~~ therefore i will be chasing the under in this Browns / Bengals game to win 1 half for 10* units , which is my highest rating for chases besides GOY...

First let me say this as this will be an in-depth write-up....According to my stats the browns have gone under 8 times in their last 12 halves while averaging a mere 16.5 PPG on the road this season... that is inflated by the 27 points they scored against the Colts in wk2 which is the ONLY time they scored more than 17 this season..... you can couple this with the fact that in each of the Bengals 4 home games they have had an under half, not to mention that in every game except for the wk 5 road gm against the jags ~~ they have had an under half.... That is 9 out of the 10 games there has been a under half.... You can also know that they have gone under in 3 of their last 4 home games in the first half, which gives us a beeter shot at cashing in early.

I just talked with a contact in Cincy and the weather right now as of this writing 530 am pst is as followed.... rained for most of the night but not heavy, probably got about a 1/2 inch with 2 inches coming our way in the next few days ~ nothing major but we are expected heavier rain probably in the 2H ~ id be more worried about the winds than the rain as they have been swirling SSW -WSW back and forth around 10mph-20mph..... with this information i can honestly be opinioned to beleive that long range FG's will be affected and possibly long distance throws... which means both of these teams will try to utilize the run and use short passes to move the chains.

HC Marvin Lewis likes to establish the run and he has the philosophy to stick with what works, and what works is to run against these browns.... Mr.Lewis has seen some of the biggest run games against these Browns and most of these have come at PBS STADIUM in Nov or Dec... Cedric Benson will get most of the carries and is part of this list im talking about, including his 150-yard effort in last season’s 19-17 win last December....Cedric Benson owns these Browns point blank, he has carried the ball 127 times against these Browns for a total of 576 yards and 2 tds..... He has averaged 4.54 yards per carry in the five games he's played against the Browns and the Bengals won four of those five games......When these two teams met in Week 1, Benson ripped off 121 yards with a touchdown on 25 carries..... here are some other notable games against these Browns...

BIG RUSHING DAYS AGAINST BROWNS
202: Rudi Johnson vs. Cleveland, Nov. 28, 2004
192: Corey Dillon vs. Cleveland, Dec. 12, 1999
171: Cedric Benson at Cleveland, Dec. 21, 2008
169: Rudi Johnson vs. Cleveland, Dec. 11, 2005
168: Corey Dillon at Cleveland, Oct. 10, 1999
160: Pete Johnson vs. Cleveland, Dec. 17, 1978
150: Cedric Benson vs. Cleveland, Dec. 19, 2010
148: James Brooks at Dallas, Nov. 20, 1988
145: Rudi Johnson Cleveland, Sept. 17. 2006

Its no secret to what the bengals will do especially with the early weeks reports of Andy Daltons throwing shoulder being hurt or the fact that he has thrown 5 interceptions in his last 2 gms while completing only 53 and 50 % of his passes....that was due to the competition of the Ravens and the Steelers ~~ it wont get any easier and will be that much tougher to find his favorite target A.J. Green to connect with barring his return, as lock-down cornerback Joe Haden will be blanketing him all afternoon... Haden leads the NFL with 16 pass breakups but has not had an interception yet after having 6 last year as a rookie. I beleive Green will play in this game just because of how important this game is and the rivaly he has from the SEC days with Haden .... I just dont think he will be that much of a factor in this game, so the Bengals offensive line will need to get time for Dalton to find Simpson,Caldwell, and Gresham to be more productive this week if the Bengals hope to challenge Cleveland's stout secondary.... and that will open up tremendously if the Bengals establish the run as i expect them to do... but keep in mind that the browns have had only 3 sacks in their last 4 games, which is the primary reason i also think the bengals cover this game.

When the Browns have the ball they too will establish some kind of run game as it has been pretty good and successful lately as Chris Ogbongaya or whatever his name is racked up 115 yards on 21 carries for a 5.5 average and a touchdown last week against the Jags.... not to mention that Montario Hardesty will be back this week to add a different dimention to the ground attack.... The Browns will try and i hope they try their best and keep the clocks running as they have faced good against the run teams like the jags and the texans, but the Bengals run defense is giving up only 3.4 YPC which is tied with balty for #1 in the NFL and they are the #1 AFC team giving up a mere 88.6 YPG on the ground ~ the NFL leader is SF 75.5 ypg .....and we seen what the great run defenses did on Thanksgiving with these ravens and niners... just dont give up on trying Browns... i need your part in this too !!!! Cleveland QB Colt McCoy has had an pretty bad 2011 season, but his recent games against St. Louis and Jacksonville have been solid.... he has managed to complete more than 70 percent of his pass attempts in both contests and turned the ball over just once.... yet still has only gotten into the endzone only 1 time .... the Browns may try to pass in this game and exploit the Bengals secondary being that they lost their #1 cornerback Leon Hall for the season in Week 10 and it showed last week against Ravens as Joe Flacco threw for 270 yards and two touchdowns.... but to do that they better establish something on the ground before they attempt to pass considering the fact that McCoy has been sacked at least 2 times in each of Cleveland's last seven games..... it just makes me think that there will be some long 2nd and 3rd downs for them..... The Bengals defensive line is just too big and too physical and will limit the production that Colt may have.... Period !! Sure he may get a few downfield balls but they wont be those long ones we know Rodgers, Brees , or Brady can kill you with.... besides the bengals are one of the best in not giving up the long ball as only 5 passes have gone 20 yards or more....

Rookiees final thought :

i just believe 1 or both of these teams are just going to run and say stop me, paticulary the Bengals and cedric benson.... but i also feel that the Browns defense will slow this past practice of run on me forever by the bengals which is the reason why i will chase this under to win 1 instead of for just the whole game.... it all comes down to who is more stubborn in this one, but in the end we will win 1 half towards the under whether 1h or 2h and the bengals will cover this one too.... they are at home are just the better team from top to bottom....

i also feel that the browns might sneak the first half in this game and if they do i will be jumping on the 2h with the bengals.... but for now these are my official plays


10**** CHASE TO WIN 1 HALF ~~~ LEG A ~~ UNDER 19 1H CLE/CIN
7***** CINCY -6.5

[unload]

get some back today Rookie! Thanks for posting.

[Victor]

Good luck THE_ROOKIEEE!

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

Originally Posted by CZAR

hey rookie do u liek san diego today,,i really like emm ,,,,

tebow controversy .... san diego has been burn money for last 3 games 1-4-1 in all halfs and they really need this game.... i know some that like this one but i cant play this with all of that !!!

[CZAR]

i have rivers on my fantasy team,,i know what u r talking about!

ok let me know who u taking for the day ..

[GFB2008]

Good luck, Rookieee!

[secondbase]

gl rook

[tellyg]

Good Luck

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

late morning add

#223 ~~~ 4**** TB +3