NFL Wagering this season

Yankee23 · #1 10-12-2009, 10:00 AM

I consider myself a fairly decent capper when it come to the NFL but this has to be my worst start that I can remember

Is there any reason to cap a game this year or just look at the line knowing who will cover by using common sense?

For example, let's use last night's Tenny/Indy game

Indy is only favored by 3/3.5 which at first glance is a no brainer, Indy is the play, but why is the line so low for a 4-0 team against a 0-4 team?

What happens Indy blows them out and the public cashes big

Is Vegas confused as well or is it just myself and is it really this easy that anyone can make $$ in the NFL by just using common sense?

RanPicks · #2 10-12-2009, 10:21 AM

NFL... I've seen a lot of lines that look too good to be true... and they haven't been as they have been in the past...

In the Tenn game... I believe they have lived off of Legends past... being able to hang with Indy in the past...

too bad I only had balls enough to tease games likes NYG and Philly this past weekend...

Yankee23 · #3 10-12-2009, 10:23 AM

Common sense plays yesterday that cashed

Minny
GMEN
Indy

Anyone in America that picks up a paper would have picked those 3 games in a heartbeat

RanPicks · #4 10-12-2009, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yankee23

Common sense plays yesterday that cashed

Minny
GMEN
Indy

Anyone in America that picks up a paper would have picked those 3 games in a heartbeat

yep... forgot to include Minny...

Pap · #5 10-12-2009, 10:27 AM

someone said the other night, theres so little parity in the NFL right now that it's more or less like a game of madden. The good teams are really good, and the bad ones are just absolutely horrible. 2 Pass completions in the Buff/Cle game, yet Cleveland still wins? come on...

faves cover 15 point spreads and run the score up way past the over, which the public also likes to bet. i've been cautiously picking the "easy ones" but i do think the public gets crushed either this week or next, its just been way to easy for them.

Right now Teasers reign supreme, its been tease the favorite and over and you're guaranteed $$$

however i did get suckered into tennessee last night

rjb1816 · #6 10-12-2009, 10:29 AM

the public has been cleaning up so far in the nfl, that is no secret

Yankee23 · #7 10-12-2009, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjb1816

the public has been cleaning up so far in the nfl, that is no secret

No doubt.....but how many times can you say....next week the public gets crushed before it actually happens?

AlphaDog · #8 10-12-2009, 10:33 AM

Hindsight is 20/20. Easy to say Indy blowout after you watch.

When it comes down to it, that was a division rivalry game, and for the road team to be laying points, should be a good indication that the books expected an Indy win. Last season, Indy went into Ten a 4 point underdog and lost by 10.

rjb1816 · #9 10-12-2009, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlphaDog

Hindsight is 20/20. Easy to say Indy blowout after you watch.

When it comes down to it, that was a division rivalry game, and for the road team to be laying points, should be a good indication that the books expected an Indy win. Last season, Indy went into Ten a 4 point underdog and lost by 10.

last year indy went in to tenn -4....yea when Tenn was already a winning team, not 0-4

RanPicks · #10 10-12-2009, 10:38 AM

Week 6 tease... (7 pt)
Phi -7
Pitt -7
Jax -3

Steel · #11 10-12-2009, 10:48 AM

Interesting how some of you blame the public for your loses. Who cares what side the public is on just cap the game and go with what your work points to. Public has nothing to do with winning games. If this is the case then you may as well not work on capping and just go against the public on every play. Use a system and go with what it comes up with. It is as easy as that.

AlphaDog · #12 10-12-2009, 10:51 AM

Look at the underdogs that cashed ATS yesterday:

Was, KC, Det and Den (NE/Den had the highest volume of bets placed out of any of the 1pm/4pm games).

So....Min, Phi, NYG and Ind all cash as big public faves

Was, KC, Det and Den all cash as underdogs

The rest of the action was pretty much 50/50 on the other games.

Book takes their theoretical 5% juice of all spread wagers for the day and they go home rich.

So exactly how is the public "killing" the books?

rjb1816 · #13 10-12-2009, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlphaDog

Look at the underdogs that cashed ATS yesterday:

Was, KC, Det and Den (NE/Den had the highest volume of bets placed out of any of the 1pm/4pm games).

So....Min, Phi, NYG and Ind all cash as big public faves

Was, KC, Det and Den all cash as underdogs

The rest of the action was pretty much 50/50 on the other games.

Book takes their theoretical 5% juice of all spread wagers for the day and they go home rich.

So exactly how is the public "killing" the books?

over the course of the season, the numbers on big public plays are cashing at a high rate. even yesterday i would bet they lost money

Yankee23 · #14 10-12-2009, 11:00 AM

I posted this beacuse after talking to a good "friend" who has an interest in gambling told me he hasn't had a winning Sunday this season....not even close

QuadzillaXXX · #15 10-12-2009, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steel

Interesting how some of you blame the public for your loses. Who cares what side the public is on just cap the game and go with what your work points to. Public has nothing to do with winning games. If this is the case then you may as well not work on capping and just go against the public on every play. Use a system and go with what it comes up with. It is as easy as that.

I also love the "I was on the right side" but they lost argument.

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