NFL Week 1 (Thursday nighter)

[Hoosier Action]

Tenn @ Pitt
over 35 (1)

First NFL action of the season as I just can't get into the pre-season.

Going to go with the over on this Thursday night opening game. You have two veteran QB's with a ton of experience and both teams can run the ball. Statistically, not that good of season for Big Ben as he did throw15 interceptions and had a qb rating of 80. Point is Pitt had a good all around offense and one of the better D's in the league. He is healthy, which makes all the world of difference. Tenn was the darling team last year ats, going 12-4. Collins made Tenn more of a threat with his experience and with his decision making. The weather is going to be around 70 with little wind. FG kickers are very good for both teams. These two teams are both capable of putting up some points both on offense or the defense leading to a score. The total has gone over in 6 out of the last 7 in this series. The total has gone over in 8 out of the last 12 Pitt games at home. Pitt is tough at home and if I had to take a side I'd go with them.

Comments and info always welcome my friends

[Hoosier Action]

All plays so far:

Pitt under (1)
Pitt -6 1/2 (1)
KC +13 (1)
Minny -3 1/2 (1)
Atlanta -4 (1)
Houston -4 1/2 (1)
NY Giants -6 1/2 (1)
49ers (as soon as I can get a +7) (1)
49ers under 46 (1)
Cincy -4 (1)
Colt's under 44 1/2 (1)
Detroit +13 (1)
Detroit under 49 (1)
Packer's under 46 (1)
Buffalo +11 (1)
Buffalo under 47 1/2 (1)

Will try and give my reasons on them

Pitt -6 1/2

Just like the defending super bowl champs at home and the fact that they have covered ats 5 outof the last 6 season openers. Also read where the defending super bowl champs have won 7 straight and covered ats in 6 of them. (forgot posters name but it was good info) Favorite's in Thursday games are an incredible 20-5-1 ats cobined over the last 3 years. Already gave reason why I like the over.


KC +13 (1)

Haley is going to be a good one (15 years exp) and if he can get the offense going like he did in Zona where he was the OC, then KC may cover this larger opening day number. Cassel has been practicing and will most likely be a game time decision on his status. Gone is Gonzales and he will be missed. The new general manager Scott Pioli is good one, as they got him from the Pats, nuff said on that. He's already bringing in some very key players. Zona score at 18.2 ppg last season and gave up 27.5 ppg. The D is supposed to be different formation this year, but at least the Ravens are not a real explosive offense, although they are going to be a very good team this year.

KC is 16-8-2 in season openers. KC have covered 7 out of the last 8 ats as DD dogs. Baltimoe is a very nice 12-4 as a home fav during the first 4 weeks and an even better 34-13 ats at home in teams outside of their division.

KC may have only been 2-14 last year but they lost 7 games by less than 7 points. I'm hoping Johnson can pound as he was the last rb to go over 100 yards against this Raven D.


Minny -3 1/2 (1)

Not going to get iinto this trap stuff this early in the season. Point is you got the best rb in football and a veteran qb playing a team that has a new coach who is only 23-26 before this job. Minny is 21-4-2 ats as road fav's of 3 points or more on grass. The Browns are only 2-8 ats in their first game and 8-16 ats vs non-conf. Good enough for a trap with me.


Atlanta -4 (1)

Another year's experience for Ryan can go along way as he is the real thing in my honest opionion. They lost some key starters but who didn't? They haven't fared well in the past at 15-25 against non Division opponents as home fav but I still like them in this game. They do fall under a strong opening week trend that I read where home teams of 3 1/2 to 6 1/2 point favorites are 11-0-2 the first week of the season. Their not the only team that fits into this trend. Trend will probably get it handed to itself this week but that's why it's gambling and I'm just trying to find an edge.


Houston -4 1/2 (1)

Same trend as above. Going against a strong ats stat as the Jets have covered at a 9-2-1 in their last 12 road openers. But they are only 6-16 ats vs non division opponents.

Giants -6 1/2 (1)

Also fits the trend of week 1. I do like the Giants at home for many reasons and just getting to tired to list them all.


49ers +6 1/2 or 7 (1)
under 46 (1)

Going against the first trend in this one as I like the other trend better. Losers of the superbowl struggle bigtime, and especially in season openers. Can't find my notes to see what the record is but I'm sure it's not good. I think it's 0-9. Plus I can't deny the fact that I think the 49ers are much improved and I expect them to fully take the attitude of their great D x player coach. Those Bear teams were tough back then. There's a trend that I played every game with a total over 44 1/2. Once again I can't find my notes but it was very strong to the under in week 1 over the past couple of years.

Cincy -4 (1)

Well at least Cincy is starting the season out somewhat healthy for a change. This game also fits into the already mentioned trend I'm following in week 1. The Bengals are 15-34 ats at home in Sept. That's scary and I'm on them At 4-11 last year I really think the Bengals will improve if QB stays healthy and may be a suprise ats team this year.


Colt's under 44 1/2 (1)

Homey here but I'll go against them when they really get inflated lines, and believe me some of the locals here jack them up at least a point or two because everyone bets them every week. Don't worry, I'll never post those lines that you can't get. I hate that when people do that. Put your play up right away when the line is available. By the way, falls in the under trend of 44 or ,more in week 1. Colt's will eat some clock this year as they are still noted for their explosiveness under Manning Truth is they were 3-5 on the over/under at home last year. Don't get me wrong they could explode at anytime. I just expect more running with the new coach.


Detroit +13 (1)
under 49 (1)

Lot of points to give up to a team that was 6-2 ats on the road last year. I guess that's what 0-16 will do for you. You don't have to win, JUST COVER! Saints were a covering team last year going 11-4-1 ats and 7-1 ats at home. Dangerous play, but sticking to the total trend and the percentages of DD fav's not doing so very well.


Packer's under 46 (1)

The under trend once again for week 1. Going to make me or break me. It won't break me. A lot of plays but I don't usually have this much time on my hands to get ready for week 1. Probably a good thing that I don't Pack and the Bears were both around the 500 clip last year with the totals. Just seems like a lot of points in this rivalry game.


Buffalo +11 (1)
under 47 1/2 (1)

The under is 17-5 the last 22 in this series. Pats have dominated the Bills. Guess who is back for the Pats? Maybe everyone expecting the scores to get run up again. I expect them to play a little wiser to keep Brady healthy. But, really just following the DD trend that did so poorly in the past.


That took awhile for me to go through everything. Please excuse typo's and I hope everyone has a nice opening week. Going to have a cold on

Comments and info alway welcome in my thread

[scr0da]

Buffalo +11 (1)
under 47 1/2 (1)

The under is 17-5 the last 22 in this series. Pats have dominated the Bills. Guess who is back for the Pats? Maybe everyone expecting the scores to get run up again. I expect them to play a little wiser to keep Brady healthy. But, really just following the DD trend that did so poorly in the past.


O man...i dunno i'm a bills fan and even I wouldn't touch that +11!

[jordan19]

Nice write up! I like the Tenn/Pitt over!

[broadwayjoe]

I like Miami +4 against Atlanta. The Dolphins are a bit underrated heading into the regular season which could make for some good betting opportunities.

[Hoosier Action]

All plays so far:

Pitt over 35 (1)
Pitt -6 1/2 (1)
KC +13 (1)
Minny -3 1/2 (1)
Atlanta -4 (1)
Houston -4 1/2 (1)
NY Giants -6 1/2 (1)
49ers (as soon as I can get a +7) (1)
49ers under 46 (1)
Cincy -4 (1)
Colt's under 44 1/2 (1)
Detroit +13 (1)
Detroit under 49 (1)
Packer's under 46 (1)
Buffalo +11 (1)
Buffalo under 47 1/2 (1)


Reposted this to change Pitt to over: You can tell from write-up I was on over but on all plays typed under. It's correct now

scroda: I'm probably going to regret it

Broadwayjoe" like that username, Miami will be much improved, Atlanta already improved,

good luck

[bcbadgalz]

Best wishes tonight and all season! Like a bunch of them bud!

[Hoosier Action]

All plays so far:

Pitt over 35 (1) Lost
Pitt -6 1/2 (1) Lost Nice fumble on the 3 yard line
KC +13 (1)
Minny -3 1/2 (1)
Atlanta -4 (1)
Houston -4 1/2 (1)
NY Giants -6 1/2 (1)
49ers (as soon as I can get a +7) (1)
49ers under 46 (1)
Cincy -4 (1)
Colt's under 44 1/2 (1)
Detroit +13 (1)
Detroit under 49 (1)
Packer's under 46 (1)
Buffalo +11 (1)
Buffalo under 47 1/2 (1)


0-2 start

[Hoosier Action]

All plays so far:

Pitt over 35 (1) Lost
Pitt -6 1/2 (1) Lost Nice fumble on the 3 yard line
KC +13 (1)
Minny -3 1/2 (1)
Atlanta -4 (1)
Houston -4 1/2 (1)
NY Giants -6 1/2 (1)
49ers (as soon as I can get a +7) (1)
49ers under 46 (1)
Cincy -4 (1)
Colt's under 44 1/2 (1)
Detroit +13 (1)
Detroit under 49 (1)
Packer's under 46 (1)
Buffalo +11 (1)
Buffalo under 47 1/2 (1)


0-2 start

[Hoosier Action]

All plays so far:

A couple of add ons

Pitt over 35 (1) Lost
Pitt -6 1/2 (1) Lost Nice fumble on the 3 yard line
KC +13 (1)
Minny -3 1/2 (1)
Atlanta -4 (1)
Houston -4 1/2 (1)
NY Giants -6 1/2 (1)
49ers (as soon as I can get a +7) (1)
49ers under 46 (1)
Cincy -4 (1)
Colt's under 44 1/2 (1)
Detroit +13 (1)
Detroit under 49 (1)
Packer's under 46 (1)
Buffalo +11 (1)
Buffalo under 47 1/2 (1)
Carolina under 43 1/2 (1)
Dallas under 39 (1)

[Hoosier Action]

Followed what I thought were strong trends for week 1. A lot of games but I felt really good going into the week.

Unfortunately, 3 really bad breaks went against me at the end and cost me all 3 games. That's a big turnaround. 3 more losses instead of 3 more wins. I know that's the way it goes sometimes and I sure hope it evens out.

Recap of Sunday and Monday:



KC +13 (1) LOST, this one really hurt in the way it was lost
Minny -3 1/2 (1) Won, easily
Atlanta -4 (1) Won, Easily
Houston -4 1/2 (1) Lost, easily
NY Giants -6 1/2 (1) LOST, Nice prevent D the last 2 minutes!!!!!
49ers (as soon as I can get a +7) (1) Won, very exciting game
49ers under 46 (1) Won, easily
Cincy -4 (1) Lost, Denver miracle didn't beat us, sorry for ML players that
Colt's under 44 1/2 (1) WON, Easily
Detroit +13 (1) LOST, Score 27 and get 13 you think you might win!
Detroit under 49 (1) LOST, what a bad bet
Packer's under 46 (1) WON, easily
Buffalo +11 (1) Won, Easily
Buffalo under 47 1/2 (1) LOST, [B]That was the topper for the week for me!!
Carolina under 43 1/2 (1) LOST, Ugly game
Dallas under 39 (1) Where's the D, Gruden will be missed

Thursday 0-2 -2.20 losing Pitt and over: Pitt fumbles on the 3 late in game.
Sunday & Monday: 7-9 -2.90

1st week total: 7-11 - 5.10

I hope everyone else had a better week-end.

Good luck this week everyone