Pats/Balt

[sosoangry]

As I wrote yesterday re the Cin/NYJ game:

I wouldn't make too big a deal about the home fields ("place will be rocking" etc.). The books have more than adjusted for the added advantage coming from post-season home edge. Example: since 2002 in Wild Card round, the home team is 16-12 SU but just 11-17 ATS... Home faves are 14-7 SU in this time and 9-12 ATS...

Jets have kept 5 of their last 6 foes under 100 yards rushing. Home field WC teams that rush for under 100 yards are 9-9 SU and just 5-13 ATS.

Pretty much applies today for NE. All the home field edge stuff is very much likely discounted in the current line (as if the books don't know about NE/Brady home dominance??). For example, Pats went 8-0 SU at home thsi season, but just 5-3 ATS -- the books are catching up. Over last few years, NE is 29-7 SU at home, but just 16-20 ATS. Mind you, Pats went 0-2 ATS in 2007 during post-season at home. So current line at -3.5, given what just wrote, is likely inflated, meaning more like a pick-em game INCL HOME FIELD EDGE.

I feel comes down to run game. Always good to have visitor with run game advanatge, as is case here. Ravens very good running ball, and Pats not so good defending the run. 11 of 16 reg season games Balt rushed for more than 100 yards, and when Balt rushed for more than 100 yds in a game they were 9-2 SU; when they rushed for less than 100 yds in game they were 0-5 SU. I believe Ravens gain more than 100 yds rushing today vs Pats (Pats allowed 10 of 16 teams to rush for >100 in reg season).

Meanwhile, as much as Pats seem to live/die by the pass, when they don't rush for more than 100 yds in game, they're just 2-4 SU, and they today face one of the tougher rush D in NFL.

In WC round over years, teams that rush for >100 yds are 16-7 SU and if rush less than 100 yds are just 11-20 SU. If they rush for >120 yds = 13-3 SU, if they rush for less than 120 yds = 15-25 SU.

We'll see what Pats can do. Maybe they'll more than make up for it with huge passing day (sans Welker)...
sosoangry is online now

[SteelCityPlayers]

Think that Maroney will have a big day! Thanks for the writeup